With solely 5 weeks remaining within the NFL common season, we’re not solely fascinated about the playoff image however in regards to the 2025 NFL Draft, as nicely. Whereas it could look like a foregone conclusion that the worst groups are simply going to maintain shedding each week, and a few of them will, we are able to’t overlook that unpredictable upsets occur — or practically occur — each week.
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Look all the way in which again to final week. The Las Vegas Raiders had been one bounce away from taking down the two-time defending Tremendous Bowl champion Kansas Metropolis Chiefs. Sure, the staff that my NFL projection mannequin says has the very best probability at touchdown the primary total choose was that near beating the staff with the very best document … on the highway! However the Raiders weren’t the one bottom-feeder near a victory final week. The New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Carolina Panthers and Cleveland Browns had been all inside one rating on the last whistle. And at this level within the season, one win can swing the chances drastically.
So, with that in thoughts, let’s check out which groups are almost definitely to safe the coveted No. 1 choose. Six groups have a minimum of a 4% probability of snagging it, and whereas two groups are main the way in which by a big margin, there are nonetheless some enormous video games to be performed between a few of these “contenders.”
Raiders’ odds of selecting No. 1: 30%
Once we did this train just a few weeks in the past, the Raiders had been at 30%, in order that they’ve stayed “on observe.” The Raiders face three playoff groups down the stretch — one is Week 18, and who is aware of if the Chargers could have something to play for — however the Raiders’ destiny will grasp closely on their Week 16 recreation in opposition to the Jaguars. The Jaguars not having quarterback Trevor Lawrence, whom they positioned on IR, is a big issue, however simply by nature of those groups enjoying each other (virtually) ensures one in every of these groups could have a minimum of three wins after that matchup. Because it stands proper now, my projections make the Raiders favorites to win.
Raiders remaining schedule
| Week | Date | Opponent | Win Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
|
14 |
Dec. 8 |
30% |
|
|
15 |
Dec. 16 |
36% |
|
|
16 |
Dec. 22 |
63% |
|
|
17 |
Dec. 29 |
35% |
|
|
18 |
TBD |
33% |
Giants’ odds of selecting No. 1: 30%
The Giants are an enormous riser in these odds over the previous few weeks, as they’ve seen their probabilities double. A giant cause why is that QB Daniel Jones is now not with the staff, whereas celebrity defensive deal with Dexter Lawrence is out for the yr. Briefly, the Giants had been already dangerous, and so they’re solely getting worse.
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However a significant cause why their odds are so excessive now could be that they don’t have any straightforward video games the remainder of the way in which. They play the Saints this week, and that’s the very best probability they must win a recreation for the remainder of the season. After the Saints, all 4 remaining video games are in opposition to groups within the playoff hunt, with two of them approaching the highway.
Giants remaining schedule
| Week | Date | Opponent | Win Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
|
14 |
Dec. 8 |
34% |
|
|
15 |
Dec. 15 |
19% |
|
|
16 |
Dec. 22 |
22% |
|
|
17 |
Dec. 29 |
33% |
|
|
18 |
TBD |
18% |
Jaguars’ odds of selecting No. 1: 15%
The Jaguars are possibly probably the most attention-grabbing staff in the case of the draft order. As talked about above, they’ve an enormous Week 16 matchup with the Raiders that may swing their odds a great bit. However that’s not all. In addition they have two matchups in opposition to the lowly Tennessee Titans and the disastrous New York Jets. Even with out Lawrence, these are winnable video games, which is why their odds to select first aren’t pretty much as good regardless of being one of many worst groups within the league. In 4 of their 5 remaining video games, they nonetheless have a greater than 30% probability to win.
Jaguars remaining schedule
| Week | Date | Opponent | Win Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
|
14 |
Dec. 8 |
33% |
|
|
15 |
Dec. 15 |
45% |
|
|
16 |
Dec. 22 |
37% |
|
|
17 |
Dec. 29 |
47% |
|
|
18 |
TBD |
27% |
Patriots’ odds of selecting No. 1: 11%
Have you ever seen the Patriots’ schedule the remainder of the way in which? It’s not nice, nicely, except you need a greater draft choose. Drake Maye has been superior as a rookie QB, all issues thought of, however 4 video games remaining in opposition to playoff groups, together with two matchups with the Payments, is a gantlet. Positive, a kind of Payments video games is Week 18, however as of now, the Payments are nonetheless in competition for a first-round bye and might be attempting to win that recreation. It’s very potential the Patriots lose their last 4 video games. However as a result of they’ve three wins already, they’ll want some “assist” in the event that they’re going to select No. 1.
Patriots remaining schedule
| Week | Date | Opponent | Win Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
|
14 |
Dec. 8 |
NA |
|
|
15 |
Dec. 15 |
30% |
|
|
16 |
Dec. 22 |
19% |
|
|
17 |
Dec. 29 |
34% |
|
|
18 |
TBD |
27% |
Jets’ odds of selecting No. 1: 5%
The Jets’ odds have seen a 2% improve over the previous three weeks, and they’re now the sixth-most probably staff to select No. 1. It’s secure to say the Aaron Rodgers-era in New York has been nothing in need of a catastrophe, and a greater draft choose might be a small silver lining.
Jets followers needs to be rooting for the Dolphins to beat the Jets this week and to maintain profitable video games in order that their Week 18 matchup means one thing. That can solely assist the Jets’ draft inventory. In any other case, the schedule works out fairly decently with robust matchups in opposition to the Rams and Payments. Nevertheless, their Week 15 matchup with the Jaguars might be enormous for the place they land within the pecking order. I nonetheless suppose the Jets are a bit too gifted to maintain shedding, however you simply by no means know with this staff. Perhaps they’ve already packed it in.
Jets remaining schedule
| Week | Date | Opponent | Win Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
|
14 |
Dec. 8 |
30% |
|
|
15 |
Dec. 15 |
55% |
|
|
16 |
Dec. 22 |
41% |
|
|
17 |
Dec. 29 |
21% |
|
|
18 |
TBD |
46% |
Panthers’ odds of selecting No. 1: 4%
The resurgence of QB Bryce Younger has given the Panthers fairly the increase by my mannequin’s projections, which has harm their odds of touchdown the highest choose. However I feel that’s a great trade-off for Carolina. The Panthers wanted to know if it was price giving Younger one other shot subsequent yr, and I feel the final month or so has given them that confidence.
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They’ve 4 video games remaining in opposition to playoff-hopeful groups that ought to preserve their win complete low. Nonetheless, this staff has been feisty for a couple of month now — the Panthers practically beat the Chiefs and Bucs — so don’t be stunned in the event that they steal a recreation or two.
Panthers remaining schedule
| Week | Date | Opponent | Win Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
|
14 |
Dec. 8 |
16% |
|
|
15 |
Dec. 15 |
49% |
|
|
16 |
Dec. 22 |
30% |
|
|
17 |
Dec. 29 |
25% |
|
|
18 |
TBD |
26% |
(Photograph of Aidan O’Connell and Tommy DeVito: Steve Marcus / Getty Photos)
