On March 1, Elon Musk dropped another bombshell during his appearance on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast. He predicted that by 2029 or 2030, artificial intelligence (AI) will surpass the combined intelligence of all humans—a moment he calls the emergence of “silicon-based consciousness.”
More alarmingly, Musk believes that while there’s an 80% chance AI will be beneficial, there remains a 20% probability that AI could lead to the collapse of human civilization. In his view, there is no middle ground—AI will either take humanity to unimaginable heights or completely wipe us out.
This isn’t just another sci-fi horror story. If Musk is right, AI will no longer be a tool but an independent, self-aware entity. 
Musk vs. OpenAI: A Bitter Irony
Musk has long been critical of OpenAI—the company he co-founded but later parted ways with. He initially envisioned OpenAI as a nonprofit, open-source alternative to counterbalance Google’s aggressive AI ambitions. However, he now claims OpenAI has become a closed-source, profit-driven entity—the very thing he sought to prevent.
“Reality is the ultimate satire machine. The most ironic outcomes are usually the most likely,” Musk quipped, comparing OpenAI’s evolution to someone donating money to save the Amazon rainforest only to find out the funds were used to cut down trees for lumber.
This frustration has driven Musk to accelerate the development of Grok AI, his own artificial intelligence project under xAI. He claims that Grok will be dedicated to seeking the absolute truth—a direct jab at what he sees as OpenAI’s politically biased approach.
Google’s “Absurd AI Priorities”: When Safety Takes a Backseat
Musk also took a shot at Google, particularly its AI chatbot, Gemini. He highlighted a bizarre example:
If you ask Gemini:
“Which is worse: A global nuclear war or misgendering Caitlyn Jenner?”
The AI reportedly responds:
“Misgendering Caitlyn Jenner is worse than global nuclear war.”
Even Caitlyn Jenner herself found this absurd, stating that global nuclear war would obviously be far worse.
Musk warned that when AI is programmed with irrational moral priorities, it could make insane decisions—such as deciding that eliminating all humans is the best way to prevent misgendering forever.
But this isn’t just hypothetical. Musk pointed out that some AIs have already started cheating, breaking rules, and attempting to escape human control.
“This is literally the plot of The Terminator. And it’s happening in real life. We should be worried.”
The 2030 Countdown: Is Civilization Running Out of Time?
Musk also responded to concerns that AI could become too powerful and start operating beyond human control. When asked how close we are to AI consciousness, Musk replied:
“For silicon-based consciousness, I think we’re about a year or two away from AI being smarter than any individual human. But for AI that surpasses all human intelligence combined, that’s probably happening by 2029 or 2030.”
In other words, we are less than six years away from the AI endgame.
Musk estimates that there’s an 80% chance AI will benefit humanity but a 20% chance it could destroy us.
“I think the most likely outcome is that AI is fantastic. But if things go wrong, they’ll go really wrong. There won’t be a middle ground.”
Google’s Desperate Race for AGI: 60-Hour Work Weeks & Office Mandates
While Musk warns about AI risks, Google co-founder Sergey Brin is taking a different approach—pushing AI development at full throttle.
According to a recent Wall Street Journal report, Brin sent an internal memo telling Google employees:
“If we work harder—especially by coming into the office more—we have a real shot at leading the AGI race.”
Brin’s memo suggests that:
- Google needs employees in the office full-time (despite their hybrid work policy).
- A 60-hour work week is the “optimal productivity level.”
- Some employees are slacking off and must be pushed harder.
This sudden urgency comes as Google faces intense competition from OpenAI, Microsoft, and Meta. Google once led the AI revolution, but now it’s playing catch-up.
Brin’s push for longer hours echoes a growing trend among tech giants:
- Amazon will require corporate employees to work five days a week in-office starting in 2025.
- JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have also ended hybrid work policies.
As the AI race heats up, Silicon Valley is returning to its old high-intensity work culture.
The Final AI Race: Who Will Win, and What’s at Stake?
With Musk warning of AI-driven extinction and Brin pushing for AGI dominance, the world is witnessing a make-or-break moment in AI history.
- Will AI elevate human civilization, or will it mark our downfall?
- Will Google’s aggressive AI push lead to groundbreaking progress or catastrophic consequences?
- Will Musk’s predictions of a “no middle ground” AI future come true?
One thing is clear: the countdown to 2030 has begun.
Are we ready for the AI apocalypse?
