At present I needed to see how NFL offenses have fared in scoring touchdowns within the crimson space, contemplating the Pittsburgh Steelers offense simply put up their highest level complete (32) up in Week 6 towards the Raiders. That reality in itself appears groovy on the floor, particularly in a low scoring duke it out Steelers identification, however the offense and QB Justin Fields hasn’t been as much as snuff general.
Fields respectfully admitted as such in a current interview, stating he hasn’t been ok regardless of their 4-2 document, and because the group appears set to begin Russell Wilson for the primary time this season. The objective of the article is to see what has transpired in 2024, present 2023 data on Wilson’s final motion, and see what it may imply for Pittsburgh shifting ahead.
First, let’s take a look at crimson zone landing charges per drive for offenses within the 2024 season:
Right here we see the Pittsburgh Steelers offense is a under common unit in scoring touchdowns within the crimson zone. Their 50.0 crimson zone TD fee ties for nineteenth within the NFL by way of Week Six, just under their subsequent opponent within the New York Jets.
Pittsburgh has reached the crimson zone 18 occasions this season, tied for thirteenth. The offense is getting there, generally by their very own doing, together with some well timed turnovers from the protection and particular groups items as we noticed final week.
As soon as the offense is within the crimson zone, they’ve 9 touchdowns on the season, which ties for 18th. So, knocking on the objective line door hasn’t been the problem, however capitalizing as soon as there sadly.
Subsequent, I needed to see the development from a weekly standpoint, to see how issues have trended. Listed here are these crimson zone landing charges, this time trying on a play-by-play foundation (spikes, kneels, aborted performs eliminated) to achieve that context:
Very telling visible. Whereas issues may have been significantly better for the Steelers offense as of late, we will clearly see that issues trended positively the final three video games in comparison with the primary three weeks of the season.
Pittsburgh’s offense was under the 21-percent per sport common in every of the primary three video games, significantly none within the opener regardless of having their second-most 11 crimson zone performs on the season. A whopping ten of these have been runs, 5 every from Fields and RB Najee Harris. Solely two have been first downs, the place Fields transformed third downs (one and 5 yards to go).
Issues acquired a bit higher in Week Two, however nonetheless under common. The Steelers crimson zone TD fee got here in at 16.7-percent, on six makes an attempt (second-least of 2024). 5 passes dominated the splits this time, with a five-yard landing to Darnell Washington within the third quarter the spotlight by far. In any other case, no first downs, and the play that was thought of a run was sadly a sack.
Week Three was a downtrend from an already under common outing. Their 11.1 crimson zone TD fee got here on 9 performs, six runs and three passes. The landing got here on a third and three Fields designed run of 5 yards, and as soon as once more no different first downs.
Then, Pittsburgh acquired above the road in Week 4 (barely). Their 23.1 TD fee included 13 performs, essentially the most on the season, and featured three touchdowns. Two have been Fields scrambles, a 2nd and objective from the 2, and third and objective from the 5 within the second half. The opposite additionally got here on third down, a cross to TE Pat Freiermuth for the eight-yard rating late within the fourth quarter. However this got here within the Steelers first lack of the season (27-24), and enjoying from behind all through affecting the 5 run/eight cross break up within the close to comeback.
Then, Pittsburgh skyrocketed to their greatest mark of the season, at 50-percent. Painfully although, it was the opposite lack of the season in shut vogue to the Dallas Cowboys (20-17). The rating was tight all through, however noticed their least crimson zone alternatives (4). Three passes to just one run, all within the second half. Two passing touchdowns, with Fields discovering Connor Heyward wide-open within the flat (good play design) and 16-yard waltz-in, and the opposite a shovel cross to Freiermuth late within the fourth quarter.
The Steelers acquired again within the winner’s circle final week (32-13), however slid to a just under common 20-percent crimson zone TD fee. Ten makes an attempt, with eight of these being runs. Two of them have been touchdowns, each from Fields. One was a 4th and 1 simply earlier than halftime for the three-yard rating, and the opposite from seven yards out within the fourth quarter. As soon as once more, not one of the different crimson zone performs have been first downs.
So, we will clearly see that the weekly specifics weren’t best general, however Fields accounted for 100-percent of Pittsburgh’s crimson zone touchdowns up to now. Extra along with his legs, with 5 dashing to 4 passing TDs. Many have mentioned the tradeoff you lose with Wilson as a rusher, which after all is true together with Fields’ most dashing touchdowns of any non-QB this season. However as a passer, his 4 crimson zone touchdowns lands low amongst his friends, together with solely 5 complete in 2024.
That is the advance you’re hoping to get with Wilson, a bump within the passing sport. Since there is no such thing as a knowledge for Wilson in 2024, I’ll reference my research I did within the offseason on each quarterbacks from 2023. I’ll embody many hyperlinks to a number of points of their play in my weekly sport outlook, however here’s a telling one for at present’s subject 2023 crimson zone passing efficiency.
What I discovered in that research is that Wilson was by far the higher passer within the crimson zone, together with a 26.3 crimson zone TD fee that ranked sixth-best of the 2023 season out of the 33 qualifying QBs. Comparatively, Fields got here in at 22.0-percent, which tied for a a lot decrease twentieth rank. And a facet observe, former QB Kenny Pickett ranked dead-last at simply 9.4-percent, yikes.
My takeaway on the time was that Pittsburgh addressed their putrid crimson zone passing offense in spades with the addition of Wilson, and if he certainly will get the doubtless begin this week (and/or shifting ahead), that he offers simply that. Additionally encouraging was Wilson’s robust crimson zone passing TD fee got here one the sixth-most makes an attempt (76), so it was high quality and amount, the perfect of each worlds.
Fields had 50 crimson zone passing makes an attempt with much less high quality, although he performed fewer video games (13) than Wilson (15). Different parts I checked out have been accuracy, which turns into more and more essential within the crimson zone with tighter home windows, and naturally the significance of the state of affairs.
Wilson had a a lot greater 61.8 completion fee (ninth), together with an 85.9 catchable fee (eighth), and 81.3 heading in the right direction fee (third). Fields had decrease marks throughout the board: 54.0 completion fee (nineteenth), 82.9 catchable fee (14th), 78.0 heading in the right direction fee (fifth).
These information landed Wilson within the high ten as a crimson zone passer throughout the board within the 2023 season, whereas Fields was exterior of it in each side besides heading in the right direction fee. At occasions, we have now seen Fields present spectacular accuracy in 2024, however inconsistent all through the season, and had his worst sport final week no matter state of affairs.
So, with Wilson doubtless getting his first begin within the black and gold this week, one among my major hopes is that he could be as efficient as a crimson zone passer (or higher) as he confirmed in 2023. After all, there are a number of different points of the sport which can be essential, like the general offense being profitable and entering into these conditions.
Right here’s to hoping that’s the case, with Wilson offering a stronger impression within the crimson space as a passer, and maybe Fields coming in nearer to the objective line to offer his crimson zone dashing risk as effectively.
Thanks for studying and let me know your ideas within the feedback.