The 49ers’ shrinking window and the way Brock Purdy suits (or may not): Sando’s Choose Six

Sunday offered an excessive instance of what the San Francisco 49ers can appear like, at their worst, with Brock Purdy left to fend for himself on offense.

Star operating again Christian McCaffrey remained out. Beginning receiver Deebo Samuel fell in poor health shortly earlier than kickoff and lasted three snaps. The opposite beginning receiver, Brandon Aiyuk, suffered a possible season-ending knee damage shortly earlier than halftime.

If Purdy had carried the 49ers previous the two-time defending Tremendous Bowl champion Kansas Metropolis Chiefs with all that stacked towards him, what else would stay for him to show? That Purdy tossed three interceptions in a dreary 28-18 defeat may not change how the 49ers really feel about their QB.

However the second does present a gap to think about the 49ers’ future as they transfer nearer to the day when the 2024 season ends and Purdy turns into eligible for an enormous contract extension.

“It might get tough for them,” an exec from one other crew stated.

The Choose Six column leads with the 49ers’ future in gentle of their 3-4 begin to the season and essential selections that await. The total menu:

• Brock Purdy and the 49ers’ future
• A brand new Deshaun Watson dialog
• NFC North fallout: Lions, Vikings, Pack
• Jerry Jones isn’t any Al Davis (that’s a great factor)
• Saints’ cap issues aren’t cap issues
• Two-minute drill: Tomlin’s QB choice

1. The 49ers are 3-4 and affected by accidents that might threaten their championship window. What occurs once they pay Purdy?

Purdy and Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes mixed for zero landing passes and 5 interceptions Sunday. It was presumably a one-off recreation for each groups, except the 49ers have reached a breaking level with accidents, which is feasible.

Earlier than Sunday, this 49ers season was largely a testomony to Purdy’s capacity to supply in an offense missing McCaffrey, who stays sidelined indefinitely. Purdy was scrambling extra and finishing longer passes into tighter home windows, which some noticed as proof that he’s extra than simply one other system quarterback in a Kyle Shanahan offense.

Sure, Purdy struggled towards the Chiefs’ man protection schemes with out McCaffrey, Aiyuk and Samuel there to assist him (Aiyuk dropped an extended move at one level). However he has proven a capability to supply with out all of his weaponry accessible.

The desk beneath compares Purdy’s profession manufacturing with and with out McCaffrey on the sector, offered both Aiyuk or Samuel was on the sector when McCaffrey was not. This appeared like a good strategy to measure Purdy’s manufacturing with out McCaffrey, who’s an elite game-plan consideration, offered Purdy nonetheless had at the least certainly one of his beginning receivers.

The numbers are barely distinguishable.

Even the most effective quarterbacks require a baseline degree of weaponry to function. Purdy seemingly dipped beneath that baseline Sunday towards an excellent Chiefs protection.

The bigger pattern is evident. Purdy’s manufacturing by 34 regular-season and postseason begins outpaces the manufacturing of his predecessor, Jimmy Garoppolo, underneath Shanahan. Whereas the 49ers led the Chiefs by 10 factors in separate Tremendous Bowls with every of those QBs within the lineup, solely to lose, Purdy has been demonstrably higher.

That’s all superb, however what occurs if, two years from now, Purdy is incomes $55-60 million per yr and San Francisco now not has the roster to help him?

There are early indicators the 49ers could possibly be trending in that course.

The 49ers might have selections to make at receiver. Aiyuk and Samuel have choice bonuses due in March; Aiyuk’s is assured, whereas Samuel’s shouldn’t be. The hole between the beginning of the league yr and when these bonuses are due might present a commerce window earlier than the bonuses hit the 49ers’ cap. Aiyuk’s knee damage might complicate issues, but it surely’s truthful to surprise what the longer-term future holds.

Left sort out Trent Williams is year-to-year at age 36. Tight finish George Kittle, 31, can be in a contract yr subsequent season and will have leverage with the next cap quantity.

San Francisco’s roster this season is the NFL’s third-oldest by snap-weighted common age. The Chiefs’ roster, in distinction, is the third-youngest by the identical measure. That reveals which crew is about up higher for the long run.

Whereas the Chiefs have been restocking their protection by the draft lately, utilizing first-round picks on cornerback Trent McDuffie and defensive finish George Karlaftis, the 49ers have been buying and selling away a haul of picks within the ill-fated transfer to amass Trey Lance.

San Francisco has funneled money into its protection, signing Javon Hargrave (who’s out for the season with a triceps damage) for $21 million per yr. The 49ers have additionally hit on mid- and late-round picks. However they nonetheless have the NFL’s oldest offense and eighth-oldest protection, weighted for taking part in time.

“That’s most likely San Francisco’s largest difficulty,” a special exec stated. “They’re beginning to really feel three first-round picks for Trey Lance. They’ve executed a great job drafting with later picks. It’s nice they obtained Purdy. He makes up for a type of first-round picks, however not two others.”

Execs across the league have anticipated the 49ers extending Purdy’s contract within the coming offseason — his first time eligible for a brand new deal — although Purdy is signed by 2025.

“They should decide about whether or not they need to simply be shifting on from this older core and constructing round Purdy, or do they commerce Purdy, get stuff for him and go together with a less expensive choice at quarterback?” one other exec stated.

Wait, what?

Purdy is certainly one of 45 quarterbacks to make at the least 10 begins since 2022. He ranks first amongst them in passer ranking (107.9), yards per move try (9.2) and EPA per move play (.214).

Who would commerce a younger quarterback as productive as that? The reply, to this point, has been no person. The exec was merely suggesting that Purdy, whereas good, doesn’t belong in Tier 1 or the highest of Tier 2, and that different groups in related conditions may need been higher off, on reflection, swinging trades than paying prime greenback for his or her quarterbacks.

The Los Angeles Rams with Jared Goff, the Miami Dolphins with Tua Tagovailoa, the Dallas Cowboys with Dak Prescott and the Minnesota Vikings getting into their ultimate season with Kirk Cousins have been among the many examples he cited.

“It’s about being a man being a dude, and Purdy shouldn’t be in that ‘dude’ class,” the exec stated.

The extra seemingly situation: Purdy and the 49ers reaching an settlement on an extension earlier than the 2025 season.

“When you might have a head coach that has the imaginative and prescient, what it will appear like sooner or later,” one other exec stated. “Having the quarterback signed provides to the predictability. You’ll be able to navigate. Numerous different issues fall into place, and you’ll proceed to construct it because the cap will increase.”

There’s a lot to think about. The 49ers are dwelling towards the Cowboys in Week 8, adopted by a bye and, two days later, the Nov. 5 commerce deadline.

“Lots of people would commerce their conditions with San Francisco,” the exec added. “They simply aren’t as deep as they usually have been.”

2. The Cleveland Browns misplaced Deshaun Watson to a possible season-ending torn Achilles tendon of their 21-14 loss to Cincinnati. We transcend the sophisticated reactions.

Final week, we thought-about potential Cleveland exit methods regarding quarterback Deshaun Watson. The dialog modified Sunday when Watson dropped again to move, planted his again leg and crumpled to the bottom.

Cleveland followers upset with the group for investing a lot in a participant dealing with greater than 20 lawsuits alleging sexual misconduct cheered as Watson writhed on the grass on the newly renamed Huntington Financial institution Discipline. A few of Watson’s teammates took offense.

“We ought to be ashamed of ourselves as Browns and as followers to boo anybody and their downfall,” defensive finish Myles Garrett stated.

Backup quarterback Jameis Winston forged Watson as a sufferer.

#Browns Jameis Winston on followers cheering Deshaun Watson whereas he was down on the sector together with his season-ending torn Achilles pic.twitter.com/RphsiUMxG6

— Mary Kay Cabot (@MaryKayCabot) October 20, 2024

The football-related implications are important. The Browns purchased damage insurance coverage for Watson. That would present some money and salary-cap aid for the crew, particularly if Watson misses video games subsequent season, when his wage is a completely assured $46 million.

The lengthy restoration time for Watson additionally might make it simpler for the Browns’ soccer management to persuade possession to move in one other course on the place, as followers have hoped they’d. The crew’s monetary dedication to Watson has assured him a spot within the lineup so far. That can’t be the case indefinitely.

By this season’s finish, Watson could have missed 33 of 52 video games (together with playoffs) — 11 as a result of suspension and 22 as a result of damage — since Cleveland acquired him. Watson additionally suffered two torn ACLs beforehand, one whereas practising at Clemson, one other whereas practising with the Houston Texans. Availability was at all times a priority.

Watson’s play within the 19 video games he did begin for the Browns has been shockingly unproductive. He ranks forty third in EPA per move play amongst 45 quarterbacks with at the least 10 begins since 2022.

Followers annoyed with the Browns for sticking with Watson regardless of his traditionally poor manufacturing can really feel higher concerning the crew now that one other quarterback can be within the lineup.

There are folks to be ok with in Cleveland. Nick Chubb scored a landing in his first recreation again from a horrific knee damage, offering a welcome feel-good second Sunday.

The offense perked up within the fourth quarter as soon as Winston changed backup Dorian Thompson-Robinson following one other QB damage, serving to the Browns prime 300 yards for the primary time in a recreation this season. They nonetheless have but to exceed 18 factors in a recreation. Solely 9 groups because the 1970 AFL-NFL merger have had longer such streaks to open a season.

That leaves the Cleveland Browns as the one crew in NFL or FBS that hasn’t scored 20+ factors in a recreation this season https://t.co/9GQYX1IuGC

— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) October 19, 2024

The ultimate 9 video games of this Browns season will seemingly present extra damning statistical splits on what absolutely now should be the worst commerce in league historical past. The offense seemingly can not worsen.

3. The Lions despatched a message to the Vikings, who despatched a message again. The NFC North enjoyable additionally prolonged to Lambeau Discipline, the place Inexperienced Bay’s protection was once more the equalizer. Let’s kind by the takeaways.

The Lions wanted a last-minute discipline aim to attain a 31-29 victory over the Vikings in a recreation that answered lingering questions.

• Lions message: Detroit openly tried a faux punt on fourth-and-7 from its personal 33-yard line on the sport’s opening possession. Did the Lions assume the Vikings, coming off a bye week, weren’t clever to their tough tendencies? They apparently didn’t care then, or when Minnesota jumped to a 10-0 lead after one quarter. The Lions scored 21 unanswered factors in a show that screamed, “You’re a good story, however we’re the higher crew.”

Jared Goff particularly was distinctive. He has now accomplished 75 of 97 passes (77 %) with 5 touchdowns and no interceptions in three video games towards Minnesota since Brian Flores turned the Vikings’ defensive coordinator final season. He averaged 0.495 EPA per move play Sunday, by far the most effective full-game determine for any quarterback towards the Flores-era Vikings.

Minnesota nonetheless ranks second in defensive EPA per play this season, however the Lions confirmed once more they will do greater than operate towards this difficult-to-solve Vikings protection.

• Vikings rebuttal: We entered Sunday questioning how Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold would fare if compelled to play from behind. Darnold had tried solely two passes whereas trailing all season earlier than Sunday. He was managing the Vikings’ success and contributing to it, not driving it. Minnesota’s defensive dominance drove its 5-0 begin. What would occur when an opponent took a lead as massive because the 21-10 margin Detroit constructed?

It wasn’t wanting good for Darnold when the Lions’ Brian Department intercepted him on the quarterback’s third move after Detroit had taken a 14-10 lead late within the second quarter. However Darnold persevered. He accomplished 15 of 18 passes for 211 yards and a landing whereas trailing on this recreation. His passer ranking (110.9), yards per try (11.7) and EPA per move play (0.3) whereas trailing Sunday have been all distinctive.

Nobody can say Darnold imploded when compelled to play from behind. That’s nice for the Vikings, even when this defeat stung.

Goff accomplished 10 of 11 passes for 121 yards and a landing when Minnesota led. And with Jahmyr Gibbs contributing two landing runs, together with a 45-yarder, Detroit was capable of win.

• Inexperienced Bay’s day: Jordan Love, whose eight interceptions are tied for the NFL lead although he missed two begins, isn’t apologizing for possessing the Brett Favre risk-taking gene. He generally makes spectacular throws when routine ones can be found. The payoff will be massive, however the two picks he tossed Sunday price the crew 10.4 EPA.

Love has thrown at the least one interception in every of his first 5 begins of 2024. That ties Love with Don Majkowski (1991) for the fourth-longest such streak for a Packers quarterback since 1970 (three Inexperienced Bay quarterbacks had six-game streaks, most just lately Randy Wright in 1986, per Professional Soccer Reference). 4 video games was Favre’s longest streak to begin a season with the Packers, so Love is in some notable territory right here.

The day is coming when the Packers will want Love to attenuate danger.

Within the meantime, Inexperienced Bay’s protection has develop into the equalizer.

The Packers held Houston’s C.J. Stroud to 10 of 21 passing for 86 yards with 4 sacks — and nonetheless wanted a last-second discipline aim to beat the Texans, 24-22.

Inexperienced Bay’s protection has completed with optimistic EPA six occasions this season, probably the most for a Packers protection by seven video games since at the least 2000. That made it a lot simpler for Like to say what he stated Sunday: “You’ll be able to’t attempt to not be aggressive and take checkdowns all day. It’s a must to be aggressive and go win these video games. I’m going to play the way in which I play, be taught from the errors and develop from them.”

4. It’s been a tough week for Dallas Cowboys proprietor Jerry Jones, however a great decade by getting old Corridor of Fame proprietor/basic supervisor requirements. Raiders followers can attest to that.

Jones’ Cowboys gained three Tremendous Bowls in his first seven seasons of possession (1989-95). They haven’t reached a convention championship recreation up to now 28, most of which got here after Jones wrested management of the roster from the primary coach he employed, Jimmy Johnson.

Dallas’ 47-9 defeat to Detroit in Week 6 invited scrutiny, together with from the Cowboys’ flagship radio hosts, which Jones used as a possibility to command the highlight, his specialty.

Should you haven’t heard the now-legendary radio section the place #JerryJones threatens to fireside the hosts on the station carrying his video games, for daring to ask questions concerning the #Cowboys sorry state…. https://t.co/fSlGHlfvzl

— Mark Davis (@MarkDavis) October 16, 2024

Jones’ overriding deal with advertising and marketing is intertwined together with his want to drive the dialog round his crew, which could work towards Dallas profitable on the highest ranges.

No matter Jones’ motives have been on this newest consideration seize, we generally overlook he’s 82 and has maintained a degree of success that might replicate adjustments in productiveness for folks his age. His Cowboys have remained aggressive by Jones’ 70s and into his 80s with him remaining GM and face of the franchise. Dallas has prevented the Raiders’ spiral when their Corridor of Fame proprietor/GM, Al Davis, was equally aged and empowered.

Davis is the related comp for Jones. Each have been proprietor/GMs whose groups gained championships earlier than the wage cap went into impact in 1993, and earlier than groups discovered to handle the cap years later. Each needed to regulate to a brand new world thereafter. Davis obtained his Raiders to a different Tremendous Bowl (2002 season) when he was 73, however his crew went into sharp decline from that time ahead. Jones has stored his crew within the combine.

Jones is 82, the age Davis was when he died 4 video games into the 2011 season.

Davis’ possession of the Raiders, which I hint to 1966, when he turned part-owner, peaked at 146 video games above .500 in his age-73 season. The crew was 54 video games beneath .500 over the rest of Davis’ life. Jones is 33 video games above .500 over the corresponding age interval, however he’s nonetheless measured towards his franchise’s championship success a long time in the past.

Is 82 the brand new 70? Davis appeared a lot older in his late 70s and early 80s than Jones appears now. There are different variations.

“Al didn’t encompass himself with individuals who would inform him no,” an exec who knew Davis stated. “The construction Jerry has constructed for himself is healthier.”

Whereas Davis was unwilling to cede management over personnel, Jones has leaned on his son, Stephen, and vp of participant personnel Will McClay over a lot of the final decade. That may be the important thing distinction referring to on-field success between Jones and Davis of their later years.

5. The New Orleans Saints’ unfolding salary-cap mess isn’t actually a salary-cap mess at its core.

The Saints have been so dangerous towards the Sean Payton-coached Denver Broncos on Thursday evening that they might have let one other former New Orleans coach, Jim Mora, deal with the postgame information convention.

On this evening welcoming again former #saints coaches we have to let Jim Mora deal with the postgame pic.twitter.com/LT5rYhzPtl

— Mike Sando (@SandoNFL) October 18, 2024

The fallout from the Saints’ 33-10 defeat has centered round a brutal salary-cap state of affairs for New Orleans, one which critics have referred to as inevitable. Advised-ya-so takes have benefit solely to an extent.

I actually don’t assume of us perceive the true scope of this catastrophe for New Orleans.

Their crew is dreadful & outdated, they usually have *no strategy to repair it* for at least 3 extra years.

The cap mismanagement that *a few of us* have been discussing for years is coming dwelling to roost. https://t.co/XVabFjW9DI

— nick wright (@getnickwright) October 18, 2024

The cap stays poorly understood partly as a result of groups invoke it misleadingly when explaining why they make selections. The Saints’ state of affairs can assist illustrate how the cap works.

Each crew can lengthen its window by pushing cap implications into the long run. This works if house owners are prepared to maintain investing money, if future salary-cap limits improve and, critically, if groups draft nicely and put money into the appropriate gamers.

The Saints’ cap issues are actually participant issues.

“Anytime these groups get into cap bother, it’s at all times participant points,” a crew contract negotiator stated. “They aren’t doing a adequate job of projecting when their gamers are going to say no, they usually carry on pushing, pushing, pushing.”

New Orleans’ cap administration labored when the Saints had Drew Brees enjoying at a excessive degree and once they scored huge within the 2017 draft with Alvin Kamara, Marshon Lattimore, Trey Hendrickson, Ryan Ramczyk and Marcus Williams.

For the present Saints, Cameron Jordan and Demario Davis are 35. Tyrann Mathieu is 32. Taysom Hill is an costly part-time participant. Ramczyk would possibly by no means play once more due to accidents. These 5 are scheduled to rely practically $70 million towards the Saints’ wage cap in 2025. New Orleans reworked their contracts and others to adjust to the cap and add gamers resembling quarterback Derek Carr.

If these gamers had vibrant futures and the Saints had continued drafting nicely after that 2017 blockbuster class, their cap state of affairs wouldn’t be the issue that it’s proper now. New Orleans might preserve remodeling contracts, pushing cap prices into the long run.

As a substitute, the Saints are caught. You’ll be able to say they mismanaged the cap, however greater than that, they misevaluated the gamers they wager on.

“If you find yourself doubling down on older, declining gamers, it’s only a dangerous place to be in,” one other exec stated.

6. Two-minute drill: Mike Tomlin’s dealing with of the Steelers’ QB state of affairs was solely mysterious from afar

Tomlin benched Justin Fields for Russell Wilson and obtained a 37-15 victory over the New York Jets that includes Wilson’s third-best statistical recreation in 31 begins since leaving Seattle.

Wilson accomplished 16 of 29 passes for 264 yards and two touchdowns with out an interception, and with just one sack. His EPA per move play (0.23) was his third-highest over the previous three seasons and his highest since a 2023 Week 4 victory at Chicago.

Thus ended an unconventional week of quarterback messaging from the Steelers’ coach.

Why would Tomlin take into account changing Fields after Fields had 10 whole touchdowns with solely two turnovers throughout the Steelers’ 4-2 begin to the season? It was an incredible query for individuals who had not studied the Steelers’ offense.

“I can’t even fathom making an attempt to inform Justin Fields, ‘Yeah, bro, you will sit down after being 4-2 popping out of a quarterback battle,” the analyst and former quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan stated on his Patreon channel, The QB College, earlier than learning Fields and the Steelers’ offense of their Week 6 recreation at Las Vegas.

Right here’s what O’Sullivan stated after learning each offensive play from the Steelers’ victory over the Raiders: “The movie is dangerous. The rating doesn’t look as dangerous because the movie is. You might be profitable. However I get it. I don’t even have to return and watch one other recreation. This recreation makes me really feel like we’re doubtlessly … Justin Fields in bother right here. I completely perceive why they’d assume that.”

Brandon Marshall stops by the postgame presser and asks Mike Tomlin if it was certainly one of his boldest selections to begin Russell Wilson.

Tomlin: “that’s why I’m well-compensated.” pic.twitter.com/fQ5bdMsOtA

— Brooke Pryor (@bepryor) October 21, 2024

• Amari Cooper’s 4 catches for 66 yards and a landing beat Davante Adams’ three catches for 30 yards and no scores amongst veteran wideouts acquired by commerce final week. Every receiver was credited with a drop. Cooper had two receptions gaining greater than 15 yards. Adams had none.

• The Jacksonville Jaguars’ 32-16 victory over the New England Patriots featured coach Doug Pederson alluding to the “center eight” minutes throughout his on-field halftime interview.

Groups love the concept of breaking open shut video games by scoring late within the first half, then scoring early within the second half.

Jacksonville’s 15-0 differential throughout the ultimate 4 minutes of the primary half and the primary 4 minutes of the second half Sunday was their largest in a recreation since 2011, and their third-largest since 2000, per TruMedia.

The Patriots’ minus-15 differential within the center eight minutes was New England’s worst since at the least 2000, spanning the whole thing of the Invoice Belichick period.

Patriots coach Jerod Mayo calling his crew “gentle” after this defeat recalled one other linebacker-turned-coach, Antonio Pierce, accusing his gamers of constructing “enterprise selections” within the Raiders’ 36-22 defeat to Carolina (Pierce later apologized).

Linebackers play with nice emotion. Additionally they generally converse with emotion after troublesome defeats.

Patriots HC Jerod Mayo: “We’re a gentle soccer crew throughout the board.” pic.twitter.com/ofTxcyTBq9

— Doug Kyed (@DougKyed) October 20, 2024

New England’s six-game shedding streak is its longest because the 1993 crew misplaced 11 of its first 12, together with seven in a row. Robert Kraft bought the crew after that season.

• The Indianapolis Colts gained 16-10 Sunday with Anthony Richardson finishing solely 10 of 24 passes for 129 yards. They gained as a result of they have been dealing with the Miami Dolphins, whose quarterback state of affairs stays dire whereas starter Tua Tagovailoa recovers from his concussion.

The schedule now will get more durable for Indianapolis with video games towards Houston (highway), Minnesota (highway), Buffalo (dwelling), the New York Jets (highway) and Detroit (dwelling) subsequent.

The Colts will want higher passing proficiency to beat these groups. They know they will get improved passing proficiency from Joe Flacco, however in addition they wish to develop Richardson. It’s wanting like that balancing act will outline this season for Indianapolis except Richardson makes progress rapidly.

• Saquon Barkley’s 176-yard dashing efficiency in his return to MetLife Stadium as a member of the Philadelphia Eagles was dangerous for the New York Giants.

Barkley’s efficiency contributing to a 28-3 Eagles victory was worse.

Having this stuff occur after “Arduous Knocks” cameras recorded Giants proprietor John Mara saying he would “lose sleep” if Barkley, a fan favourite, signed with Philly in free company? On a day when Giants quarterback Daniel Jones handed for 99 yards and took seven sacks? Tough.

“I’ll have a tricky time sleeping if Saquon goes to Philadelphia” – Giants proprietor John Mara
pic.twitter.com/LO7OMnRMlD

— Crossing Broad (@CrossingBroad) July 17, 2024

• Just a few issues stood out concerning the Seattle Seahawks’ 34-14 victory at Atlanta.

Indoor Geno Smith continued to excel. Smith has 25 landing passes with 5 interceptions in 12 indoor begins with Seattle (open air: 32 TDs, 22 INTs).

Seattle dominated in all three phases. This was the seventh time in 422 regular-season and postseason Seahawks video games since 2000 that the crew completed plus-5.0 EPA or higher on offense, protection and particular groups. 5 of the opposite six video games fell throughout the Pete Carroll period, most just lately towards the New York Jets in 2020.

The Seahawks’ protection was capable of get the Falcons into third-and-6 or longer seven occasions, most for Seattle since Week 2. These performs produced a defensive landing when Boye Mafe sacked Kirk Cousins, forcing a fumble that Derick Corridor returned for a landing.

The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen just lately wrote about Los Angeles Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter inflicting issues for opponents after getting them into third-down conditions with at the least 6 yards wanted for a primary down.

Seattle runs the same scheme underneath coach Mike Macdonald, who labored with Minter in Baltimore. Sunday offered a glimpse of Macdonald’s protection in these conditions.

THAT’S A DEFENSIVE TD!!! pic.twitter.com/O3atYPnaM7

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) October 20, 2024

(Picture: Ezra Shaw / Getty Photographs)