Washington — Within the ultimate weeks earlier than the 2024 elections, Senate Democrats are dealing with an ominous map that leaves them with slim hopes of retaining their majority.
With a 51-49 majority within the higher chamber, Democrats have little room for losses within the 2024 contests. Unbiased Sen. Joe Manchin’s resolution to go away Congress has all however assured a Republican flip in deep-red West Virginia. Democrats are additionally up for reelection in two states Trump gained in 2020. And in one other six states, Democrats are combating to carry onto management.
In distinction, Republicans solely have two seats which are thought of potential pickup alternatives for Democrats: Texas and Florida, though another race between an unbiased and a Republican incumbent has grown surprisingly aggressive.
Listed here are the important thing races to observe:
Ohio Senate race: Bernie Moreno vs. Sherrod Brown
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Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is combating to carry onto his seat within the higher chamber, as businessman Bernie Moreno makes a play for the battleground seat in what has been among the many most costly races this cycle.
Moreno, a Trump-backed Republican who has embraced election denialism, gained the nomination over extra conventional conservatives within the state. The rich businessman’s self-funding has helped him hold tempo with Brown’s. However Moreno, 57, has not too long ago come below hearth for authorized troubles associated to his automotive enterprise, together with criticism over feedback about abortion, creating a gap that Brown’s marketing campaign has labored to capitalize upon.
The Cook dinner Political Report charges the race as a toss-up. Brown’s Senate colleagues have expended important effort to assist his reelection marketing campaign. However for Brown, 71, who’s the one Democrat holding statewide workplace in Ohio and has been in workplace since 2007, his reelection could hinge on his potential to separate himself from the highest of the ticket in a state that former President Donald Trump gained by eight factors in 2020.
Michigan Senate race: Elissa Slotkin vs. Mike Rogers
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In Michigan, former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers and Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin are vying for Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s long-held seat within the higher chamber.
Slotkin, 48, has represented Michigan’s seventh District within the Home since 2019. The previous CIA officer labored in nationwide security-focused posts in each the Bush and Obama administrations and has touted her work throughout the aisle as a reasonable Democrat.
The Republican nominee, Rogers, is an Military veteran who represented Michigan’s eighth District within the Home from 2001 to 2015, and he led the Home Intelligence Committee throughout his final 4 years within the decrease chamber. The 61-year-old additionally beforehand labored as an FBI agent and has campaigned on returning to Washington to repair what he sees because the shortcomings of the present administration.
Michigan hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate in three a long time. However this 12 months’s contest is taken into account among the many best of the cycle, with the Cook dinner Political Report ranking the race as a toss-up. A CBS Information ballot confirmed Slotkin main in September.
Maryland Senate race: Larry Hogan vs. Angela Alsobrooks
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Prince George’s County Govt Angela Alsobrooks and former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan are dealing with off in a race that is grown unexpectedly aggressive in deep-blue Maryland. The race kicked off after Sen. Ben Cardin introduced final 12 months that he would retire, teeing up what was anticipated to be a simple Democratic victory within the state. However Hogan’s late entrance into the race forged that victory into query, making a GOP flip of the seat potential.
The favored Republican governor, who served from 2015 to 2023, has widespread identify recognition within the state and left workplace with excessive approval rankings. He is usually set himself other than his celebration, being identified to criticize former President Donald Trump. And he is campaigned on working throughout the aisle for Marylanders, whereas pledging to be a “pro-choice” Republican. In the meantime, Democratic teams have highlighted throughout the airwaves Hogan’s previous statements personally opposing abortion and his resolution to veto laws as governor that may have expanded abortion entry in Maryland. A victory by Hogan, 68, would mark the primary time a Republican has gained a Maryland Senate seat in almost 4 a long time.
Alsobrooks, a former prosecutor, and her marketing campaign have emphasised that regardless of Hogan’s bipartisan framing, the seat may dictate management of the Senate, and with it, the power to spearhead any Democratic priorities. Alsobrooks, 53, can be the primary Black girl to symbolize the state within the Senate, and the fourth Black girl to serve within the Senate in its historical past. The Cook dinner Political Report has rated the race as a probable win for Democrats.
Nevada Senate race: Jacky Rosen vs. Sam Brown
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Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is trying to maintain onto her seat within the Silver State, dealing with her first reelection bid within the state that was dwelling to among the many closest Senate races within the nation in 2022.
Rosen is dealing with off in opposition to Sam Brown, a 40-year-old businessman and former Military captain. And though Republicans have not gained a Senate race within the Silver State since 2012, they flipped the governor’s mansion within the final election, suggesting that the state’s races may very well be in play for the GOP.
However Rosen, 67, has appeared to have a big edge over Brown since Vice President Kamala Harris entered the presidential race, after President Biden had struggled to garner assist within the state. The Cook dinner Political Report in August modified its ranking of the Nevada Senate race from a toss-up to lean Democrat after Harris entered the race, noting that the margin that Senate candidates in battleground states now must outperform the highest of the ticket has shrunk, and has been particularly pronounced in Nevada.
Texas Senate race: Ted Cruz vs. Colin Allred
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As soon as thought of a long-shot Democratic bid within the purple state, Rep. Colin Allred has launched a formidable problem in opposition to Sen. Ted Cruz for his seat within the higher chamber.
Cruz, 53, has been within the Senate since 2013 and has widespread identify recognition within the Lone Star State and nationally, having launched a bid for the White Home in 2016. He is labored to tie Allred to nationwide Democrats and paint his positions as excessive.
Allred, 41, has represented Texas within the Home since 2018, when he flipped a long-held GOP district within the Dallas space. As soon as a linebacker for the Tennessee Titans, the previous soccer participant got here to Congress after working as a civil rights legal professional. Allred has criticized Cruz’ document and argued he would not pull by means of for Texans.
No Democrat has gained a statewide election in Texas since 1994, and the Cook dinner Political Report charges the race as lean-Republican. However Texas stays amongst Democrats’ finest pickup alternatives within the higher chamber.
Arizona Senate race: Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake
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Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake are duking it out for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s seat within the higher chamber, after the first-term unbiased opted to not search reelection, dealing with an uphill climb within the battleground state.
Gallego, 44, is a former Marine who was first elected to the Home in 2014 and represents a district that features components of Phoenix and Glendale. The progressive lawmaker has labored to courtroom voters within the center, whereas Lake, who narrowly misplaced a hard-right marketing campaign for governor in 2022, has labored to do the identical.
Lake, 55, is a former information anchor and shut ally of former President Donald Trump. She has been a vocal election denier concerning the result of each her gubernatorial race and Trump’s 2020 matchup in opposition to President Biden. However Lake has tried to reel in her message in the course of the Senate marketing campaign, albeit inconsistently, incomes the backing of the celebration’s reluctant institution alongside the way in which.
The Cook dinner Political Report ranks the race as leaning towards Democrats. Earlier than Sen. Kyrsten Sinema gained her Senate race in 2018, a Democrat hadn’t gained a Senate seat in Arizona in three a long time. Sinema left the Democratic Get together in 2022.
Montana Senate race: Tim Sheehy vs. Jon Tester
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Thought-about among the many most endangered Democrats this cycle, Sen. Jon Tester is combating to maintain the Senate seat he is held for almost 20 years. And though he is fended off earlier challenges as a reasonable in deep-red Montana, the state’s shifting demographic has Republicans feeling optimistic about their pickup alternative within the Massive Sky State.
Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and founding father of an aerial firefighting firm, is dealing with off in opposition to Tester and has tried to attract a distinction as an outsider, whereas portray Tester as an institution candidate with deep ties to Washington. However Sheehy, 38, has confronted criticism for missing the roots that Tester has within the state, together with discrepancies in his story of how he sustained a gunshot wound.
For Tester, 68, the inflow of recent residents within the state, made up largely of Republicans, has posed bother for the one Democrat serving in statewide workplace in Montana, and provides to a dominant exhibiting by the GOP within the state within the final two elections, the place Tester bucked developments by hanging onto his seat. However whether or not he can stand up to the GOP headwinds this 12 months stays to be seen, with the Cook dinner Political Report rating the race as lean Republican.
Pennsylvania Senate race: Bob Casey vs. Dave McCormick
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Dave McCormick is working to unseat Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, who’s been within the Senate since 2007, in battleground Pennsylvania.
McCormick, 59, is a fight veteran and former chief govt of a serious hedge fund who additionally sought the Republican nomination to symbolize Pennsylvania within the Senate in 2022, when he misplaced to Mehmet Oz. He is campaigned on being a change agent to the established order, billing Casey as an institution politician. And he is drawn a line between his place on abortion and Casey’s, which he calls “excessive.” McCormick opposes abortion besides within the case of rape, incest or to avoid wasting the lifetime of the mom, whereas additionally arguing that the problem must be left as much as states and opposing a nationwide abortion ban. Casey — who as soon as referred to as himself a “pro-life Democrat” — now helps the protections below Roe v. Wade, which assured a proper to abortion previous to fetal viability.
Looking for a fourth time period within the higher chamber, Casey, 64, is a former state auditor basic and treasurer. The son of former Pennsylvania Gov. Bob Casey Sr., he is an establishment within the Keystone State and has a repute as a reasonable Democrat. Casey has billed his opponent as an out-of-touch carpetbagger, hammering McCormick over his earlier Connecticut residency.
The Cook dinner Political Report charges the race as a tossup, altering it from lean Democrat on Oct. 21. CBS Information ballot confirmed Casey main in September.
Wisconsin Senate race: Tammy Baldwin vs. Eric Hovde
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Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is in search of a 3rd time period within the Senate, dealing with a problem from Republican Eric Hovde within the Badger State.
Baldwin, 62, was first elected to the Senate in 2012 after representing Wisconsin within the Home for greater than a decade. Baldwin, the primary brazenly LGBTQ+ Senator in historical past, has an extended historical past of courting rural voters within the state, profitable counties that Trump beforehand gained within the 2018 election, regardless of her progressive politics.
Hovde, 60, additionally sought the GOP nomination in 2012. His bid fell quick to former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, who went on to lose the election to Baldwin. The businessman with deep pockets is one in all a variety of Republican Senate candidates recruited partially for his or her potential to fund their very own campaigns this cycle.
Hovde has campaigned on points like immigration, whereas criticizing Baldwin for her document in Washington. In the meantime, Baldwin has billed Hovde as an out-of-touch rich businessman as the 2 spar over the seat within the battleground state. The Cook dinner Political Report charges the race as a toss-up, shifting its ranking from lean-Democrat on Oct. 8. A CBS Information ballot confirmed Baldwin main in September.
West Virginia Senate race: Jim Justice vs. Glenn Elliott
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Senate Democrats have all however ceded Sen. Joe Manchin’s seat to Republicans after he introduced he would not search reelection within the purple state. Democrat Glenn Elliott, a former mayor of Wheeling, West Virginia, is dealing with off in opposition to present Republican Gov. Jim Justice, who is nearly assured a win within the Mountain State.
Even earlier than Manchin left the race, the seat was anticipated to pose a problem for Democrats as soon as the favored GOP governor entered the race. Senate Minority Chief Mitch McConnell himself inspired Justice to run and seize the chance to unseat Manchin, who previously served as governor and has represented West Virginia within the Senate since 2010. Manchin, a reasonable who has usually been a thorn within the facet of Democratic management, opted to go away the celebration and register as an unbiased in Might.
The Cook dinner Political Report charges the race as strong Republican.
Nebraska Senate race: Deb Fischer vs. Dan Osborn
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Sen. Deb Fischer’s reelection appeared assured till simply weeks earlier than the election, when a string of polls revealed a surprisingly aggressive race between the incumbent and unbiased Dan Osborn.
Osborn, a Navy veteran, mechanic and union chief, has acquired an onslaught of out of doors funding, forcing Republicans to redouble their efforts in a race that was considered a simple win. The 49-year-old unbiased is a political newcomer who’s leaned right into a populist message, whereas billing his opponent as an institution politician managed by company pursuits.
Fischer is in search of a 3rd time period within the Senate, the place she served on the highly effective armed providers and appropriations committees. The 73-year-old, who has a background as a cattle rancher, has leaned on an endorsement from Trump in latest weeks, whereas portray her unbiased opponent as a “Democrat in disguise.” Osborn has pledged to not caucus with both Democrats or Republicans within the Senate.
The Cornhusker State is dwelling to just about twice as many registered Republicans as Democrats, and Trump gained Nebraska by almost 20 factors in 2020. However Nebraska can also be dwelling to just about as many nonpartisan voters as Democrats. And with no Democrat within the race, the 2 voting teams may come collectively to launch a formidable problem in opposition to the Republican incumbent. The Cook dinner Political Report charges the race as lean Republican, transferring it from probably Republican on Oct. 21.
