Israel’s warfare towards Hamas in Gaza—and the assassinations, tanker wars, and drone assaults it has provoked all through the broader Center East—means the Gulf states are on edge. Because the U.S. election approaches, the area’s two powerhouses—Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—is perhaps anticipated to lean towards stability within the type of Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for president. However Harris’s insurance policies could not convey the kind of stability that they need.
Harris is prone to take a more durable stance on the conflicts in Sudan and Yemen and interact diplomatically with Iran, positions which might be at odds with the 2 Gulf states’ geopolitical aspirations. Each nations, subsequently, would possible want to see former President Donald Trump return to the White Home. Trump’s transactional method to diplomacy and disrespect for political norms have been very important to amplifying each Saudi Arabia’s and the UAE’s regional energy.
This desire displays a deeper strategic calculation. Beneath Trump’s earlier administration, the Gulf states loved unprecedented ranges of U.S. assist, together with through arms offers and Washington’s hard-line stance towards Iran. Harris’s anticipated method to U.S. overseas coverage presents a stark distinction. Though the Biden administration has maintained some robust positions on Iran, they’re no match for the Trump period.
Harris would possible revive diplomatic engagements from the period of former President Barack Obama, shifting away from aggressive insurance policies which have favored the Gulf states’ strategic goals. The vice chairman argued in 2019, when she was a U.S. senator, that she would return to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal that Trump withdrew from, and that she would take no matter motion was essential to counteract Iran and its proxies and defend U.S. troops stationed within the area. Biden made an identical pledge throughout his 2020 presidential marketing campaign, however the negotiations stalled for quite a lot of causes.
Harris typically favors a extra diplomatic and multilateral method to regional dilemmas. Trump, against this, intently aligned himself with Gulf pursuits whereas in workplace, significantly on Iran and Yemen. In a possible second Trump presidency, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi see a chance to additional bolster their regional ambitions.
Beneath Trump, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman started negotiating a megadeal with the US. It might set up a safety pact, civilian nuclear cooperation, and protection cooperation—together with arms gross sales—between the 2 nations.
There was a catch, nevertheless: Saudi Arabia must normalize ties with Israel, contingent on vital progress towards Palestinian statehood. These talks have been hampered by the continuing warfare in Gaza.
Whereas it has been referred to by commentators as a NATO-style settlement, the proposed pact is extra just like the protection treaty that the US has with Japan. Not like NATO’s Article 5, this deal stops in need of guaranteeing an automated U.S. army motion within the occasion of an assault, permitting Washington some discretion in how a lot assist it provides Saudi Arabia.
By all accounts, Harris is extra prone to restrict the scope of U.S. safety commitments to Riyadh—and cling to established rules—than Trump. In 2019, throughout Trump’s administration, Saudi Arabia suffered an assault on two Aramco oil installations. In response, the US deployed further troops, missile protection programs, and radar gear to Saudi Arabia. Mohammed bin Salman is satisfied that Trump’s willingness to supply unconditional assist for Saudi safety pursuits makes a formalized take care of the US extra possible, even when the two-state answer stays a sticking level.
The Saudi crown prince seeks a army edge over his regional neighbors. The protection part of the settlement goals to bolster U.S.-Saudi army ties by joint coaching, advisory packages, and elevated arms gross sales. Riyadh is eager to safe superior air protection programs to counter drone and missile threats from regional adversaries, significantly Iran and its so-called axis of resistance.
Trump has a monitor report of delivering: In 2017, his administration facilitated a main arms deal with Riyadh, doubtlessly value $110 billion. This transfer could have considerably bolstered Saudi army capabilities and regional dominance. (Some analysts have argued that this determine was exaggerated, noting that a lot of the bundle consisted of casual letters of intent or curiosity quite than contracts.)
In 2021, against this, Biden froze army gross sales to Saudi Arabia as a part of a broader reassessment of U.S.-Saudi relations, citing considerations over the “humanitarian and strategic disaster” in Yemen. Whereas army gross sales have been restarted in 2024, with Washington citing escalating regional threats from Iran and Houthi forces, analysts have argued that Harris could impose better scrutiny on arms gross sales to Riyadh, given her votes towards Saudi arms gross sales whereas within the Senate.
Saudi Arabia additionally has nuclear ambitions—and the deal seeks to advance Riyadh’s aim of constructing a civilian nuclear program, akin to Iran’s. However the U.S. Senate and the worldwide group have expressed considerations that the dominion might ultimately use that expertise and infrastructure to develop nuclear weapons.
These fears are usually not unfounded: Mohammed bin Salman has explicitly argued that if Iran develops nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia would comply with go well with.
Through the Trump presidency, nevertheless, members of the administration and U.S.-based nuclear agency Westinghouse are alleged to have held personal negotiations with Saudi Arabia with minimal oversight, in accordance with a report revealed in 2019 by Democrats within the Home of Representatives. This signaled that Trump is perhaps keen to help Riyadh in growing nuclear infrastructure.
Whereas Riyadh has all the time seen Tehran as its main regional menace, it was Mohammed bin Salman who superior an explicitly aggressive and confrontational place towards Iran. Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and new punitive measures considerably dented Iran’s financial system; he positioned his administration as a key ally in curbing Iran’s regional affect.
Though Saudi Arabia and Iran have loved official détente since 2023 due to a deal that China sponsored, Riyadh nonetheless perceives Tehran as probably the most vital menace to its safety and regional ambitions. Harris’s signaling that she is keen to restart talks with Tehran and rejoin the nuclear deal could pose a strategic concern and dilemma for Riyadh—and will additionally reignite fears amongst Gulf nations of Iranian regional dominance.
The UAE’s desire for Trump is rooted in Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed’s diplomatic, safety, and geopolitical concerns. Abu Dhabi’s strategic objectives embody gaining a army benefit over its neighbors—one thing that the Trump administration assisted the nation with previously.
In 2020, beneath Trump, the UAE grew to become a signatory to the Abraham Accords, enhancing its diplomatic and financial clout. By 2022, bilateral commerce with Israel had exceeded $2.5 billion, overlaying numerous sectors similar to expertise, agriculture, protection, and well being care. Abu Dhabi’s relationship with Israel has proved helpful in its quest to diversify its financial system. Since its signing, the UAE has fostered collaborations with Israeli corporations dealing in cybersecurity, synthetic intelligence, monetary expertise, and renewable power.
As a part of Trump’s efforts to get the UAE to signal the Abraham Accords, he promised to promote the nation F-35 fighter jets; Abu Dhabi anticipated that its army capabilities would expertise a lift in consequence. However Biden initially froze the sale on account of regional safety considerations and human rights points. The freeze was lifted in April 2021 after a evaluation.
Beneath Harris, this deal could face additional delays or stricter circumstances, significantly given the UAE’s involvement in conflicts in Yemen and Libya, and extra lately, Sudan.
In Sudan, the UAE is supporting the paramilitary Fast Assist Forces, presumably in collaboration with Russia, within the militia’s warfare towards the Sudanese authorities. With Trump anticipated to undertake a extra lenient stance towards Moscow, this Emirati-Russia cooperation could proceed to flourish.
In the meantime, in Somalia and the Horn of Africa, the UAE has been growing army and port infrastructure, together with the controversial Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal. This deal, which granted landlocked Ethiopia entry to Somaliland’s shoreline, has sparked outrage from the Somali authorities and escalated regional tensions. It has additionally contributed to the formation of an anti-Ethiopian “axis”; Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia lately formalized a safety partnership aimed toward countering Ethiopia’s rising affect.
Beneath Trump, Abu Dhabi pursued its ambitions with little interference, benefiting from the previous U.S. president’s transactional overseas coverage, which prioritized financial offers over political considerations. Biden, against this, has criticized the Saudi-led coalition, and in his first foreign-policy speech as president, he signaled that his administration can be “ending all American assist for offensive operations within the warfare in Yemen, together with related arms gross sales” in Yemen.
Throughout a second Trump presidency, Abu Dhabi would have better leeway to pursue its new objectives.
Palestine stays the central political difficulty within the Arab and Muslim worlds, and managing this file—significantly the way forward for Gaza—might enable Abu Dhabi to overshadow Riyadh as a number one Islamic energy, not less than so long as a U.S.-brokered deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia stays elusive.
Through the Gaza warfare, the UAE has provided humanitarian help to civilians and pushed for a cease-fire on the U.N. Safety Council. Abu Dhabi has additionally advocated for a two-state answer whereas additionally balancing its Abraham Accords commitments with Israel, similar to rising commerce and establishing a land hall to bypass the Houthis’ assaults on ships within the Pink Sea.
Though each Saudi Arabia and the UAE could want Trump over Harris, he might additionally heighten the rivalry between the 2 states. Trump’s transactional overseas coverage tends to be superficial—and it usually overlooks the underlying tensions between nations.
Whereas Saudi Arabia and the UAE every stand to achieve militarily and economically beneath Trump, their competitors might intensify if one secures a more in-depth relationship with Washington, doubtlessly shifting the regional steadiness of energy and complicating U.S. relations with each nations.
