The New York Islanders begin to the 2024-25 season feels just like the 2022-23 season repeated for the third time. They’ve blown leads, gotten shut out 3 times, and lack the end essential to compete with the NHL’s elite. With Anthony Duclair anticipated to overlook the subsequent six to eight weeks with an damage, this roster is almost an identical to that of final season with the one related distinction being Maxim Tsyplakov. Regardless of these shortcomings, the crew stays aggressive and is more likely to be within the playoff race, however is {that a} good factor?
Islanders Will Stay Competetive
After coming inside attain of the Stanley Cup Finals in 2020 and 2021, and only a few modifications to their roster since, there’s a shared perception throughout the Islanders group that this core group can reclaim its former success. In lots of senses, they’re proper.
The Islanders have proven they will maintain their very own in opposition to the NHL’s high groups, as seen of their decisive 6-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche on Oct. 14. Video games like these give followers and the group confidence that this roster is able to reaching the last word aim. Nevertheless, there are additionally video games just like the Oct. 12 matchup in opposition to the Detroit Purple Wings, the place the Islanders have been shut out regardless of outshooting the opposition 29-10.
This can be a comparable Islanders crew to the previous few seasons, and since Patrick Roy took over, the Islanders’ defensive construction has improved. They at the moment have a 51.19 anticipated targets proportion (xG%) based on MoneyPuck, indicating they need to be outscoring opponents—an enchancment from final season’s 49.97 xG%. Moreover, they’re permitting solely 25.3 pictures per sport, a substantial drop from the 35-shot common they conceded early final season underneath Lane Lambert.
Anticipated targets mirror scoring possibilities with out factoring in goaltending, and thus far, Ilya Sorokin has begun the season robust with a .947 save proportion and a couple of.5 targets saved above anticipated. If the crew can begin changing extra of their possibilities and Sorokin maintains his elite kind, the Islanders might set up themselves as one of many stronger groups within the Metropolitan Division. Whereas this may occasionally look like a great factor, doing so might present a false sense of confidence within the roster.
Enhancements Are Needed
In sports activities, mediocrity is the worst place for a crew to be—a cycle of combating for a playoff spot solely to exit early and by no means being seen as an actual menace. For the Islanders, this can be their actuality, and with out significant modifications, they threat remaining caught on this sample.
This roster lacks a transparent id and route. Throughout their 2020 and 2021 playoff runs, the Islanders have been the crew everybody dreaded going through. They wore opponents down with a bodily, defense-first type, usually profitable video games with only one or two targets. Even and not using a celebrity, they have been relentless, and no crew wished to see them in a playoff collection.
Underneath Barry Trotz and Lou Lamoriello, the Islanders thrived as a result of each participant purchased right into a tradition that left no room for complacency. In every sport, 18 skaters and a goaltender took the ice and everybody contributed. When modifications have been wanted, Lamoriello introduced in affect gamers like Kyle Palmieri and Jean-Gabriel Pageau, offering new vitality and a way of urgency.
Whereas Roy has accomplished a powerful job in holding gamers accountable, the crew as an entire lacks an id and a route. Sure, they’re contending, however they’re now not the crew you hate to face, and they don’t encourage the identical degree of concern. Some gamers struggled final season and now proceed to play with out consequence, lacking the accountability side that after outlined the crew.
Groups know what to anticipate when going through the 2024-25 Islanders: a well-recognized roster with diminished menace. Whereas the Islanders can beat any crew on a great evening, they lack the consistency to shift from playoff hopefuls to true Stanley Cup contenders. They are going to probably make the playoffs and maybe win a collection, however substantial modifications are wanted in the event that they wish to push by means of 4 rounds to win all of it.
The vital takeaway from the Islanders’ present state is to not say they want a rebuild. The core of Sorokin, Mat Barzal, Brock Nelson, Bo Horvat, and Noah Dobson may be very robust, however the remainder of the roster isn’t the place it must be. Too many gamers have grown complacent with their talents and an excessive amount of cash is locked into long-term contracts with commerce clauses.
For the reason that Islanders have a powerful core, they need to not enter a rebuild, however slightly a retool. This could not be accomplished till the offseason, however the group’s play to start out the season ought to show this speculation. That is additionally to not say they need to make modifications for the sake of creating modifications.
The Islanders’ backside six is the place modifications are essential. Pageau and Anders Lee have struggled to provide offensively in current seasons, and in the event that they fail to search out the scoresheet extra usually, they need to be offloaded. Their losses won’t be straightforward to bear, however for a mixed $12 million cap hit, that cash could be geared up extra successfully. Defensively, Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock have been staples of the Islanders’ protection in the course of the 2020 and 2021 playoff runs. Nevertheless, their pairing has been outshot 994-944 over the previous three seasons and 307-268 final season alone—the one pairing on the crew with this problem—signaling a necessity for enchancment.
Present process a retool in an offseason could be accomplished. The growing old Washington Capitals offloaded Nick Jensen, Darcy Kuemper, and others, and introduced in Jakub Chychrun, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Taylor Raddysh, Logan Thompson, and extra. Whether or not their offseason reset will work out is but to be decided, however no less than they took measures to enhance the roster than proceed sporting the identical, disappointing group. Moreover, due to the retool, gamers like Connor McMichael and Tom Wilson—who every had underwhelming 2023-24 seasons—have began this season robust, conscious that their roster spots may very well be in danger.
Whereas Islanders followers’ confidence within the crew wavers each day, the previous two seasons and the beginning of this one spotlight the necessity for roster enhancements. There’s not sufficient expertise, and an excessive amount of complacency, for the crew to turn out to be respectable contenders. Persevering with to ship the identical uninspired group onto the ice every sport seems like a misplaced trigger.
