WASHINGTON — American voters are approaching the presidential election with deep unease about what may observe, together with the potential for political violence, makes an attempt to overturn the election outcomes and its broader implications for democracy, in accordance with a brand new ballot.
The findings of the survey, performed by The Related Press-NORC Middle for Public Affairs Analysis, communicate to persistent considerations concerning the fragility of the world’s oldest democracy, almost 4 years after former President Donald Trump’s refusal to simply accept the 2020 election outcomes impressed a mob of his supporters to storm the U.S. Capitol in a violent try to cease the peaceable switch of energy.
About 4 in 10 registered voters say they’re “extraordinarily” or “very” involved about violent makes an attempt to overturn the outcomes after the November election. An analogous share is anxious about authorized efforts to take action. And about 1 in 3 voters say they’re “extraordinarily” or “very” involved about makes an attempt by native or state election officers to cease the outcomes from being finalized.
Comparatively few voters — about one-third or much less — are “not very” or “in no way” involved about any of that taking place.
Trump has continued to lie about fraud costing him reelection 4 years in the past and is once more forecasting that he can lose this time provided that the election is rigged in opposition to him, a method he has deployed since his first run for workplace. His allies and the Republican Nationwide Committee, which he reshaped, have filed lawsuits across the nation which are a possible prelude to post-election authorized challenges ought to he lose.
“I assumed after Jan. 6 of 2021, the GOP would have the sense to reject him as a candidate,” Aostara Kaye, of Downey, California, stated of Trump. “And since they didn’t, I believe it simply emboldened him to suppose he can do something, and they’re going to nonetheless follow him.”
Many citizens suppose Trump received’t concede if he loses
Trump’s wide-ranging makes an attempt to reject the need of the voters and stay in energy after his 2020 loss have led to considerations that he’ll once more fail to concede ought to he lose to Vice President Kamala Harris.
Practically 9 in 10 voters stated the loser of the presidential election is obligated to concede as soon as each state has completed counting its votes and authorized challenges are resolved, together with about 8 in 10 Republicans. However solely about one-third of voters anticipate Trump to simply accept the outcomes and concede if he loses.
Democrats and Republicans have extensively divergent views on the matter: About two-thirds of Republican voters suppose Trump would concede, in comparison with solely about 1 in 10 Democrats.
The identical concern doesn’t apply to Harris. Practically 8 in 10 voters stated Harris will settle for the outcomes and concede if she loses the election, together with a strong majority of Republican voters.
Democrats and Republicans divided on who would weaken democracy
Members of each events have broad considerations about how American democracy may fare relying on the result of the November election.
Total, about half of voters consider Trump would weaken democracy within the U.S. “quite a bit” or “considerably” if he wins, whereas about 4 in 10 stated the identical of Harris.
Not surprisingly, Individuals had been deeply divided alongside ideological strains. About 8 in 10 Republicans stated one other time period for Trump would strengthen democracy “quite a bit” or “considerably,” whereas an analogous share of Democrats stated the identical of a Harris presidency.
About 9 in 10 voters in every celebration stated the opposing celebration’s candidate can be more likely to weaken democracy at the least “considerably” if elected.
Kaye, a retired well being care system employee, referred to as Trump an “existential menace to the Structure.” One prospect she stated frightens her is that if Trump wins, he doubtless is not going to have the guardrails in his new administration that had been in place within the final one.
Republican voter Debra Apodaca, 60, from Tucson, Arizona, stated it’s Harris who’s a better menace to democracy. She stated President Joe Biden’s administration has positioned too nice a precedence on overseas support and proven a scarcity of concern for its personal folks.
“Our tax {dollars}, we’re simply sending it in all places. It’s not staying right here. Why aren’t we caring for America?” she stated. “Why ought to we pay taxes if we’re simply sending it away?”
That lack of concern additionally consists of the border, she stated, including {that a} Harris win can be “the tip to the Border Patrol.”
The January sixth assault on the Capitol is a dividing line
A part of what divides voters on their views of American democracy is the Jan. 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol and who’s responsible. Democrats and independents are more likely than Republican voters to put “an amazing deal” or “fairly a bit” of duty on Trump.
Susan Ohde, an impartial voter from Chicago and a retiree from the monetary sector, stated she’s involved that “loopy folks will purchase the misinformation that they’re given,” main to a different such assault.
Giovanna Elizabeth Minardi of Yucaipa, California, stated different points are extra essential on this yr’s election. She stated her chief concern is the economic system and feels that top costs, particularly in her house state, are chasing off companies and making a dependency on authorities. It’s a dependency Harris needs to proceed, stated Minardi, a youngsters and household companies advocate.
Views concerning the Jan. 6 assault aren’t the one ones the place voters cut up alongside ideological strains. Following Trump’s lead, a majority of Republicans preserve that Biden was not legitimately elected. Practically all Democrats and about 7 in 10 independents consider Biden was legitimately elected.
Different facets of the political system are divisive too
This yr’s presidential marketing campaign has highlighted one facet of the American political system that some consider is undemocratic — using the Electoral Faculty to elect the president moderately than the favored vote. Trump and Harris have concentrated their marketing campaign occasions and promoting in seven battleground states that signify simply 18% of the nation’s inhabitants.
About half of voters suppose the chance {that a} candidate may change into president by successful the Electoral Faculty however shedding the favored vote is a “main drawback” in U.S. elections. As with many different points, the query additionally reveals a partisan divide: About two-thirds of Democrats say the potential for an Electoral Faculty-popular vote cut up is a serious drawback, in comparison with about one-third of Republicans.
Debra Christensen, 54, a house well being nurse and Democrat from Watertown, Wisconsin, is against the Electoral Faculty that might give Trump the White Home even when he loses the favored vote for the third time.
“These days with know-how what it’s, why can’t we have now one particular person one vote?” she stated.
The ballot of 1,072 adults was performed Oct. 11-14, 2024, utilizing a pattern drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be consultant of the U.S. inhabitants. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 4.2 proportion factors.
