Who's in cost: The muddy historical past of the 50-50 Senate

There’s an previous noticed in baseball which says that the “tie goes to the runner.”

If solely it have been that straightforward in america Senate.

There’s a very actual likelihood that the Senate could possibly be tied at 50-50 within the 119th Congress which begins in January.

The Senate map in play subsequent week undoubtedly favors Republicans. Democrats presently maintain a 51-49 edge. There are 4 unbiased senators who “caucus” with the Democrats, giving them operational management.

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It’s broadly believed that the get together which controls the vice presidency routinely secures management of the Senate. However that’s removed from automated. It is sensible that the vice chairman – who Constitutionally serves because the President of the Senate and should break ties – ought to successfully grant Senate management to his or her get together. There have been two Senate ties in latest historical past. One Senate tie was in 2001. The opposite one was in 2021-2023. However what unfolded in these situations is necessary to know why awarding Senate management to the get together of the vice presidency is just not etched on a stone pill. Furthermore, these circumstances might assist clarify why it could be problematic to settle which get together may management the Senate in 2025.

Let’s first rewind.

There was a tie within the Senate in 1881. There’s truly some attention-grabbing infighting and resignations of senators which explains the political machinations of that circumstance. There was additionally a tie in 1954  – and a number of switches within the majority/minority of senators between 1953-1955. That’s partially because of the demise of 9 senators over a brief time frame.

There have been two ties within the early twenty first Century. However whereas one get together or the opposite typically had extra members than the opposite aspect, there was no such factor as a “Majority Chief” or “Minority Chief” till the early twentieth Century. Senators regarded the establishment as a physique of equals. So there was no cause to designate somebody as “in cost.” However that modified just a little greater than 100 years in the past, launching the modern Senate.

In late 2000, the Senate arrived at its first tie in a long time at 50-50. The ultimate race referred to as was a win by Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., over late Sen. Slade Gorton, R-Wash., in December. Take into account that 2000 was additionally the 12 months of the Florida election dispute involving the presidency. President George W. Bush topped Vice President Al Gore. Then-Senate Majority Chief Trent Lott, R-Miss., and then-Senate Minority Chief Tom Daschle, D-S.D., brokered a power-sharing association. The 50-50 break up, coupled with Vice President Dick Cheney, propelled Republicans into the bulk. Lott was in cost. However the deal afforded Daschle some ground powers not usually granted to the Minority Chief. Republicans would chair Senate committees. However membership by Democrats on every committee was degree with the GOP.

The pact additionally included a key rider: If one aspect or the opposite truly garnered a proper majority at any time through the 107th Congress, then the deal was off and that get together actually wielded a majority of the Senate.

The extent of comity between Lott and Daschle was instrumental to this settlement. And, all 100 senators agreed to the ability sharing association. One may ask why everybody was on board? Lott and Daschle earned the arrogance of their members. Plus, Republicans knew that Democrats would outright block ANYTHING in the event that they weren’t granted a ample voice. Meantime, Democrats agreed to the pact as a result of the choice meant they have been relegated to the minority. Below these circumstances they have been within the minority – however with an asterisk.

Lott’s reed-thin majority was short-lived. By springtime, late Sen. Jim Jeffords, I-Vt., dropped his membership with the GOP. Jeffords grew to become an unbiased and elected to caucus with the Democrats. Jeffords’ maneuver immediately propelled Daschle to Majority Chief.

Management of the Senate for the 117th Congress wasn’t settled till early 2021. That’s when Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., defeated then-Sen. Kelly Loeffler, R-Ga., to make it a 50-50 tie. President Biden captured the Presidency. Republicans have been leery of being shut out just like the Democrats frightened in 2001. No idiot he, Senate Minority Chief Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., insisted on the identical power-sharing association hammered out between Lott and Daschle 20 years earlier. Democrats would function the bulk get together due to Vice President Harris. Senate Majority Chief Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., can be on the helm. However the GOP would take pleasure in some fruits of energy within the minority, because of the 2001 deal.

On paper, partisan management of a 50-50 Senate is set by who the Vice President is: on this case, “Vice President J.D. Vance” presiding over an evenly-split chamber would tilt management to Republicans. “Vice President Tim Walz” would do the identical for Democrats. (AP/Matt Rourke)

So what occurs if there’s a tie in 2025?

The Senate is steeped in customized and custom. So if there’s a 50-50 impasse, there’s a superb likelihood a “Vice President Tim Walz” means Democrats are in cost. The identical for the GOP if there’s a “Vice President JD Vance.” However we’re working in a special political environment nowadays. Granted, the power-sharing preparations of 2001 and 2021 each emerged after disputed presidential elections. There was an curiosity in each situations to calm the waters in each of these episodes. However this time round? Who is aware of.

What else might muddy the waters? Democrats are pouring cash into Nebraska to spice up unbiased Dan Osborn in his quest to defeat Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb. Osborn has made the race a lot nearer than anticipated. However Osborn additionally says he received’t caucus with both get together. That might negate the possibilities of the tie. It additionally raises the query about the place the Senate may place Osborn’s desk within the chamber and whether or not he would serve on any committees. Impartial senators have traditionally caucused with one aspect or the opposite.

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Then there’s the query about simply how restive senators could also be after the election. McConnell is relinquishing his management function. The declared candidates to succeed him are Senate Minority Whip John Thune, R-S.D., former Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn, R-Tex., and Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla. It’s doable different senators could possibly be in play, too.

Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, has pushed the GOP management candidates to change inner convention guidelines and weaken the Republican chief. It’s removed from clear that there will likely be an urge for food for bipartisanship and comity within the new Congress if there’s a Senate tie.

And, as in 2000 and 2020, what if there’s disagreement about whether or not Harris or former President Trump received the presidency? That might dictate whether or not senators are keen to award the “majority” to at least one aspect or the opposite if it’s not sure if Walz or Vance is Vice President.

Senate management within the 119th Congress may be decided by the fates of susceptible Republican Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Deb Fischer of Nebraska. (Reuters/Go Nakamura/AP/Stephanie Scarbrough)

And a footnote on the ability of the Vice President to interrupt ties: the Vice President is just not required to vote to interrupt a tie. If there’s a 50-50 vote on a invoice or an modification within the Senate, by rule, a tie loses. So if a vote is tied, the Vice President received’t vote if the administration or get together needs the difficulty to go right down to defeat. There’s no cause to forged a “nay” vote to pile on with the loss.

Which means the Vice President solely votes within the affirmative. So if a tie vote means the difficulty is failing – and the President and the Vice President need the difficulty to go within the different route – she or he votes “aye.” That makes it 51-50 – approving the modification or laws.

A reminder that the Vice President CANNOT vote if the vote is 49 yeas to 50 nays. That’s not a tie. Thus the Vice President isn’t afforded a vote to edge the tally to 50-50.

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So, regardless of the historic precedent of the vice chairman dictating which get together will management the Senate, the ability of the vice chairman is definitely fairly restricted.

Which brings us again to our thesis: In terms of Senate management, nowhere is it written {that a} “tie goes to the runner.” Or on this case, the get together of the vice chairman. And that’s why the potential of a divided Senate in 2025 – amid a hyper unstable political local weather – might make it laborious to type out which get together runs the place.