With only a week to go, it is a tied race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in Pennsylvania — the most important electoral vote prize of the battleground states within the 2024 election.
Trump is helped by voters’ unfavourable perceptions of immediately’s financial system and by the truth that extra voters assume they’d be higher off financially with him within the White Home than Harris. Once they look again, way more Pennsylvania voters say issues had been going nicely within the U.S. throughout Trump’s presidency than say that immediately.
Harris leads Trump amongst voters who say the state of democracy and abortion are main elements, and she or he has an edge on some private qualities. Extra assume she has the cognitive well being to function president than assume Trump does, and voters are extra apt to see Harris’ positions as affordable and to see Trump’s as excessive.
And whereas Harris has not satisfied most Pennsylvania voters that she would strengthen U.S. democracy (Trump hasn’t both), barely extra assume Trump will weaken it.
There’s been little motion within the race right here since September.
Points
Wanting again, extra Pennsylvania voters say issues had been going nicely within the nation when Trump was president and people who really feel that means are backing him in massive numbers. Trump maintains his benefit on who would make folks higher off financially and leads Harris massive amongst those that cite the U.S.-Mexico border as a significant component of their vote.
The state of democracy is a significant factor for Pennsylvania voters too, together with different points, however neither Harris nor Trump have a transparent lead on who would strengthen U.S. democracy, ought to they develop into president. Barely extra voters assume Trump will weaken it than say that about Harris, and that’s notably so amongst those that name democracy a significant component of their vote.
Private qualities
However Trump’s positions, greater than Harris’, are seen as excessive by extra Pennsylvania voters, and people who maintain that view are overwhelmingly backing Harris.
Extra broadly, extra voters like the way in which Harris handles herself personally than the way in which Trump does. (Though neither candidate is appreciated personally by a majority of voters).
And this does assist Harris to a level. Practically all of the voters who like Harris are voting for her.
For Trump, although, there are 1 / 4 of voters who dislike the way in which he handles himself personally however are voting for him anyway, so not liking the way in which Trump behaves shouldn’t be a disqualifier for a lot of. Solely 5% of voters who dislike Harris are backing her.
Voter teams
On this neck-and-neck race, Harris is performing nicely with lots of the identical teams President Biden excelled with in 2020, and Trump is retaining a lot of the assist of these key teams who backed him.
White voters with no faculty diploma (greater than 4 in 10 voters right here ) proceed to be a few of Trump’s strongest backers. Most assume they are going to be higher off financially along with his insurance policies than with Harris’ and are backing him by a large margin.
Harris leads Trump amongst White voters with a school diploma, who comprise simply over a 3rd of the voters, a gaggle that has been trending extra Democratic in current elections.
This CBS Information/YouGov survey was performed with a statewide consultant pattern of 1,273 registered voters in Pennsylvania interviewed between October 22-28, 2024. The pattern was weighted based on gender, age, race, schooling and geographic area, primarily based on U.S. Census knowledge and voter information, in addition to to previous vote. The margin of error for registered voters is ±3.6 factors.
