As a mob of Donald Trump’s supporters ransacked the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, Rita Katz was sickened however not stunned. She runs an organization known as SITE Intelligence Group which tracks on-line extremism, and she or he’d been seeing rising chatter suggesting the Electoral School certification may flip violent, with far-right extremists discussing plans to hurry law enforcement officials, carry weapons to Capitol Hill and storm the chambers of Congress.
SITE despatched a sequence of bulletins to subscribers, which embrace legislation enforcement and nationwide safety businesses world wide, however the violence caught Capitol Police and the Pentagon off guard.
Now, Katz tells POLITICO Journal the threats within the 2024 election season are completely different than they had been 4 years in the past — and, in some methods, worse.
“How proactive and arranged the far proper has turn into — that could be very, very alarming for me,” she mentioned.
Katz, who spoke in her particular person capability and never on behalf of the corporate, warned that along with the specter of election-related violence, extremists had been pledging to turn into ballot watchers and intimidate even authorized immigrants from voting. And all of it’s occurring in an surroundings the place Elon Musk’s X, formally often known as Twitter, has dramatically pared again its content-moderation insurance policies, permitting harmful conspiracy theories to flourish like by no means earlier than.
“You will have protected havens for these communities the place they turn into extra radical,” she mentioned, “with extra conspiracy theories and extra requires violence to overthrow the federal government.”
This dialog has been edited for size and readability.
Inform me about how your group tracks extremists on-line.
We principally go after extremist communities by going the place their followers are. We don’t go on the web and begin looking, “Hey, the place can I discover extremist communities?” After I began SITE as one of many founders in 2002, our methodology was at all times to be within the coronary heart of extremist communities, monitoring them. And as they unfold out to completely different platforms and different venues, then we go together with them. Mainly, SITE goes wherever they go.
You had been early to highlight threats from the far proper within the run-up to Jan. 6. How does October of 2024 look completely different from October 2020?
There are essential variations: how proactive and arranged the far proper has turn into — that could be very, very alarming for me. They’re being organized inside the similar platforms that had the preparation and group earlier than Jan. 6 — one of many primary ones was The Donald, which modified the identify to the Patriots. We see the large swell of conspiracy theories and civil conflict predictions. That was earlier than. What we’re seeing right now is a really, very clear, organized, mobilized election course of, much like Cease the Steal, solely it began lengthy earlier than.
Cease the Steal on The Donald platform began after the 2020 election. They believed that they gained however one thing went improper within the election and the votes had been stolen. They consider that now they must be proactive, that this course of is more than likely occurring so they should do all the pieces of their energy to stop the steal once more. We’re seeing an enormous group much like what we noticed for Cease the Steal that’s pretending to be Defend the Vote. Whereas the Republican Social gathering invests a lot in Defend the Vote efforts, the far-right communities are very a lot leaping on board. They even launched their very own ballot watcher mobilization efforts. It’s tremendous organized, and began months earlier than. I feel the primary time we began seeing that was in March, with hyperlinks to all of the election facilities within the nation, informing them how they will be part of or turn into ballot watchers. And a few of them even indicated that they’re actively engaged on that.
One different regarding aspect that separates this election from the final one is that Trump now has extra social media platforms and different components of Silicon Valley in his nook. These are the individuals who run probably the most profound social engineering instruments humanity has ever seen — along with main conventional media retailers. They appear to be bending to his will, whether or not out of worry, settlement or easy enterprise calculus. They know that if Trump wins, they should kiss the ring. They know in the event that they need to keep related, there’s outsized threat in endorsing [Kamala] Harris. These are trademark options of fascist methods.
When individuals say they’re signing as much as be ballot watchers and election observers, do you are taking them at their phrase or do you view them as simply keyboard warriors?
I don’t see any cause to not consider them. They mentioned they might be touring to Jan. 6. They mentioned they had been going to hold [Mike] Pence. Virtually all the pieces they mentioned occurred. I don’t see a cause to not consider them. A few of them already declare they’re ballot watchers. They don’t have a cause in their very own neighborhood, as they’re organizing one another and mobilizing one another, to lie. May it’s? Probably it may very well be that some are simply claiming that they’re doing it. However once you say that you just’re doing it, you’re simply pushing different individuals to do the identical. Even when one particular person is mendacity, others will take his phrase for it, and they’ll see no cause to not observe what the opposite man is saying.
Are you seeing requires violence and planning in the identical channels and platforms?
I feel we’re seeing a lot, rather more this time. Extra about ballot watchers and elections and fraud. And this began a lot earlier. A few of them actually assume that the election was stolen and that you may blame them as a result of they didn’t shield the election. Due to that they’re calling for rather more violence. They really feel that all the pieces is finished by the Democrats, their enemy. And so they don’t have any cause to consider that this election is true, and due to this fact we’re seeing extra requires violence. This time we see a really completely different social media ecosystem. Have a look at Twitter: Twitter is now run by Elon Musk, who made it a protected haven for the far-right neighborhood.
Conspiracy theories are celebrated on Twitter. Within the earlier election, Twitter was extra regulated as a result of conspiracy theories, far-right accounts had been eliminated, particularly earlier than the election. However now it’s very completely different.
They’re very organized on Telegram as nicely. You will have protected havens for these communities the place they turn into extra radical, with extra conspiracy theories and extra requires violence to overthrow the federal government.
How are the extremists you monitor altering their methods and techniques?
The technique modified — to not wait to cease the steal, to not wait till after the election, however to start out lengthy earlier than the election, coming with a technique in hand.
You talked about ballot watching as one thing that was not being mentioned as a lot at this level within the 2020 cycle. Are there different particular actions that you just’re seeing individuals plan or interact in that you just weren’t seeing earlier than the 2020 election?
There’s lots of intimidation of immigrants. They consider many immigrants are voting and so they don’t have any proper to vote. A few of them are even speaking about intimidating individuals on Election Day and at voting facilities, to ask immigrants about whether or not they have the suitable to vote, and to show that to them — intimidating voters.
Additionally there are some requires vandalism of poll drop-boxes. They’re organizing and workshopping solutions on how to try this.
What do you see as Donald Trump’s connection to all this?
That’s a really, very heavy query. After they hear “Cease the Steal,” they echo Trump. They echo or execute what Trump says. He’s the one which gave the decision for Jan. 6. He offers the tone, the rhetoric, the language to those communities. He feeds these communities. And so when he says “We have now to guard the vote” and “The election was stolen,” they reply.
What are your prime two or three issues for Election Day by way of Inauguration?
After all I’m nervous about Election Day violence and voter intimidation. However I’m really, really fearful of what would possibly occur when the winner is introduced. If Harris wins, tens of hundreds of thousands of Individuals will refuse to just accept the consequence. And a few proportion of those individuals will probably be keen to behave, to hold out violence in help of their perception, particularly if Donald Trump will give the sign.
And within the 2020 election, Trump did give the sign. And I don’t see any cause he is not going to give the sign this time. It’s really much more vital for him this time as a result of this will probably be his final election, I feel.
Do you are concerned about violence carried out by individuals on the opposite finish of the spectrum if Trump wins?
Antifa and the far left, normally, is an issue, there’s little doubt. However do I fear concerning the Democrats finishing up violence if he wins? A lot, a lot much less to virtually none, in comparison with what we’ve got seen in the previous few years coming from the far proper and Donald Trump. It was Donald Trump who gave the inexperienced mild to Jan. 6 — lots of the Jan. 6 [convicts] mentioned, particularly, that is how they noticed it.
What ought to state and native legislation enforcement be doing to prepare for the election and the post-election season?
Jan. 6 wasn’t a failure of intelligence. It was a failure to behave. Immediately, authorities businesses don’t need one other Jan. 6. I feel they’re absolutely extra proactive and are rather more fast to reply in the event that they see something going that path. I feel they’re much extra ready, in all methods, psychologically, that it’d occur.
Do you count on the 2024 election course of — which means all the pieces that occurs from now by way of Inauguration Day — to be kind of tumultuous than 2020 was?
If Trump doesn’t settle for the outcomes, it’s exhausting to foretell. However I don’t assume it will be peaceable in any respect. And I feel that if there are requires violence, it is likely to be worse than we noticed earlier than.
When you will have any person like Elon Musk who runs Twitter, if he isn’t going to agree with the election outcomes… Our whole discourse and social cloth are wired to generate chaos right now. And it’s going to be very troublesome for legislation enforcement to manage and repair that. After Trump tweeted “It will likely be wild” [about his Jan. 6 rally], in some unspecified time in the future later his Twitter account was taken down. Nobody goes to take down these tweets now.
A number of the far-right neighborhood needed to transfer to various platforms like Telegram and Parler. Now Twitter is a voice for the far-right neighborhood and conspiracy theories. These communities are already radicalized and when you find yourself placing radicalized individuals collectively, they turn into extra radicalized when there is no such thing as a moderation. And with Trump feeding these communities, it’s very troublesome to foretell that we’re not going to see much more violence.
