The Quarterback Betrayal Index is again, with a shock new commonplace bearer: Lamar Jackson. The Baltimore Ravens’ quarterback for years benefited from elite protection/particular groups assist, however not in 2024. His capacity to beat poor play in these areas throughout a 7-3 begin enhances his MVP credentials.
Launched earlier than the 2022 NFL season, the Betrayal Index measures the diploma to which quarterbacks overcome poor play by their very own groups’ defenses/particular groups, the a part of the crew they can’t management. It’s the context wanted to debate quarterback win charges.
An excessive instance: Drew Brees gained solely 45 p.c of his begins (21-26 document) from 2014 to 2016 regardless of New Orleans rating No. 1 in a spread of offensive classes. The Saints’ traditionally unhealthy protection/particular groups betrayed Brees, ensuing within the dropping document.
The QB Betrayal Index by Week 10 of 2024 is very fascinating as a result of two distinguished quarterbacks, Jackson and Justin Herbert, have traded locations.
Each led productive offenses prior to now, however Jackson had the superior win charge (75 p.c to 48 p.c) largely as a result of, earlier than this season, his Ravens ranked second in mixed EPA on protection/particular groups throughout his profession (since 2018), whereas Herbert’s Los Angeles Chargers ranked thirty first throughout his (since 2020), per TruMedia.
The large revelation this season has are available Jackson’s capacity to maintain profitable (7-3 document, together with 2-0 in opposition to the equally betrayed Joe Burrow) regardless of his Ravens rating thirty first in mixed EPA on protection/particular groups in 2024. Herbert’s Chargers are 6-3 as a result of they rank first on protection/particular groups EPA on a per-game foundation this season, with an offense that ranks middle-of-the-pack statistically.
The desk beneath stacks all 34 quarterbacks with not less than 5 begins this season by the distinction between the place these gamers rank in QB EPA, and the place their groups rank in protection/particular groups EPA throughout every QB’s begins.
Jackson, Burrow, Baker Mayfield, Kirk Cousins, Jayden Daniels, Brock Purdy and Kyler Murray are the most effective examples of betrayed quarterbacks this season. All rank extremely in QB EPA for groups with low-ranked protection/particular groups. Quarterbacks within the center rank about the identical in QB EPA as their defenses/particular groups rank. Quarterbacks on the backside produce much less for groups with stronger defenses/particular groups.
2024 QB Betrayal Index by Week 10
The 34 quarterbacks have a mixed 37-94 (.282) document this season in begins when their groups completed with unfavorable mixed EPA on protection/particular groups. That features 0-55 for a gaggle of 16 quarterbacks headlined by Mayfield (0-6), Aaron Rodgers (0-5) and Burrow (0-4). It’s tough to win these video games, however some quarterbacks — Jackson particularly — have been in a position to prevail anyway.
We’ll shut by analyzing the seven most betrayed quarterbacks this season, plus a better take a look at Herbert and the Chargers’ drastic shift.
Most betrayed
1. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
QB-EPA 1st | DST thirty second | Betrayal Index: -31
W-L: 7-3 (.700)
W-L with unfavorable crew DST EPA: 5-3 (.625, fifth)
Jackson has proven an uncommon capacity to win what I name “excessive betrayal” video games. He’s 3-1 this season when the Ravens completed with -10 or worse EPA on protection/particular groups. The opposite 33 quarterbacks listed right here have a mixed 5-45 (.100) document in these video games.
That’s the equal of profitable three-fourths of the time after recognizing the opponent 10 factors. It’s not essentially a fluke, both.
Jackson has a 7-6 profession document in excessive betrayal video games, making him the one quarterback since 2000 to start out not less than three of those video games and have a profitable document in them. Wealthy Gannon is subsequent at 5-5.
Tom Brady (18-25), Peyton Manning (22-32) and Brees (27-54) have the most effective information since 2000 in these video games amongst quarterbacks with not less than 30 such begins. The league at giant has gained 15 p.c of those video games.
The chart beneath reveals Jackson’s cumulative EPA since he turned the Ravens’ starter in comparison with Baltimore’s cumulative EPA on protection/particular groups throughout that span, with the 2 heading in reverse instructions since this season started.
2. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
QB-EPA fifth | DST thirty first | Betrayal Index: -26
W-L: 4-6 (.400)
W-L with unfavorable crew DST EPA: 0-4 (.000, T-18th)
Burrow is 0-4 in excessive betrayal video games this season however has 24 landing passes with 4 interceptions and a 108.1 score in them. Cincinnati fell to Baltimore by scores of 41-38 and 35-34. There was additionally a 38-33 defeat to Washington and a 37-17 defeat to Philadelphia. Burrow was 4-7 in excessive betrayal video games earlier than this season. He’s enjoying extra of them now.
3. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
QB-EPA sixth | DST twenty ninth | Betrayal Index: -23
W-L: 4-6 (.400)
W-L with unfavorable crew DST EPA: 0-6 (.000, T-18th)
The Buccaneers are 4-0 after they end with optimistic EPA on protection/particular groups, however 0-6 in any other case. That’s sometimes the hallmark of a crew that includes a win-with quarterback, versus a win-because-of QB. However with 4 of these defeats falling into the intense betrayal bucket, Mayfield deserves extra credit score. He has usually stored Tampa shut in 4 excessive betrayal video games, however the Buccaneers misplaced 36-30 and 31-26 to the Falcons, 30-24 to Kansas Metropolis and 41-31 to Baltimore in these difficult-to-win matchups.
4. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
QB-EPA eighth | DST thirtieth | Betrayal Index: -22
W-L: 6-4 (.600)
W-L with unfavorable crew DST EPA: 3-3 (.500, T-Seventh)
Two victories over Tampa Bay and one other over Philadelphia in video games through which the Falcons’ protection/particular groups faltered helped offset a troublesome opening-week defeat in opposition to Pittsburgh, when Cousins and the offense struggled in his first sport again from a torn Achilles.
5. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
QB-EPA third | DST twenty fourth | Betrayal Index: -21
W-L: 7-3 (.700)
W-L with unfavorable crew DST EPA: 3-2 (.600, T-Seventh)
Daniels’ signature Betrayal Index sport got here at Burrow’s expense: 38-33 at Cincinnati in Week 3, capped by Daniels’ 27-yard landing cross to Terry McLaurin on third-and-7 with 2:15 remaining in a sport Washington led 31-26. That was the knockout punch by the Commanders, who additionally beat the Giants twice in video games when Washington completed with unfavorable mixed EPA on protection/particular groups.
6. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
QB-EPA 4th | DST twentieth | Betrayal Index: -16
W-L: 5-4 (.555)
W-L with unfavorable crew DST EPA: 2-3 (.400, tenth)
Purdy’s continued manufacturing has been one of many few constants for the 49ers as they’ve labored by accidents on offense and inconsistent play on protection/particular groups. He handed for 645 yards with 5 touchdowns and no interceptions within the 49ers’ two excessive betrayal video games this season. That was sufficient to beat Tampa Bay on Sunday. It was not fairly sufficient to beat the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3, regardless of San Francisco main by 10 factors within the fourth quarter.
Purdy has an 8-6 document in betrayal video games throughout his profession, together with 2-2 in excessive betrayal video games (-10 or worse EPA on protection/particular groups). Jimmy Garoppolo was 11-11 in betrayal video games as a 49er. Previous starters Colin Kaepernick (3-22) and Alex Smith (6-22-1) didn’t fare as properly in these video games for San Francisco.
T-7. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
QB-EPA 9 | DST 23 | Betrayal Index: -14
W-L: 6-4 (.600)
W-L with unfavorable crew DST EPA: 3-3 (.500, T-Seventh)
The Cardinals have gained and misplaced with Murray this season. They’re 5-1 in video games when he finishes with optimistic EPA, however 1-3 in any other case. Murray did win an excessive betrayal sport, 28-27 over Miami. He’s now 4-12 in his profession in excessive betrayal video games. Different Cardinals quarterbacks are 2-58 (.033) in these video games since 2000, with Jake Plummer accounting for each victories (he was 2-14 in these video games, whereas Corridor of Famer Kurt Warner was 0-11 in them for Arizona).
Issues are wanting up in L.A.
T-25. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
QB-EPA 14 | DST 1 | Betrayal Index: +13
W-L: 6-3 (.667)
W-L with unfavorable crew DST EPA: 1-2 (.333, T-Eleventh)
In a change for the Chargers, their protection/particular groups have performed far more than their quarterback to win video games this season. The crew’s three losses got here in video games when the protection/particular groups have been both superb (+7.1 EPA in a 17-10 defeat to Kansas Metropolis) or barely beneath common (-1.0 EPA in 20-10 defeat to Pittsburgh in addition to in a 17-15 defeat to Arizona).
The chart beneath compares Herbert’s cumulative EPA to the cumulative EPA of the Chargers’ protection/particular groups. The uptick on protection/particular groups started late final season with video games in opposition to unhealthy offenses: New England in Week 13 and Denver in Week 14, proper earlier than Herbert landed on injured reserve.
Herbert’s 5-10 document (.333) in excessive betrayal video games is best than the 10-37 (.213) mark for Philip Rivers and the 3-12 (.200) mark for Drew Brees amongst Chargers quarterbacks since 2000.
(Photograph of Lamar Jackson: Scott Taetsch / Getty Pictures)
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