Are you able to consider it is Week 11 already? It feels just like the season simply received underway, but right here we’re with fewer video games forward of us than behind. The place does the time go?
Final week, I hit on two of my three props, with Sam Darnold falling miserably wanting his 1.5 passing touchdowns and as a substitute throwing three interceptions… together with two of them ultimately zone. What can I say, you win some you lose some.
However at this time is a brand new day, with new props, new traces and new alternatives in entrance of us. Let’s dive into the Week 11 props that pop! — Daniel Dopp
All odds as of publication time. For the most recent odds, go to ESPN BET.
Quarterback props
5:29
Ought to Jared Goff be out of the MVP race?
Stephen A. Smith and Dan Orlovsky debate whether or not Lions QB Jared Goff must be within the MVP race after a 5-interception efficiency in opposition to the Texans.
Jared Goff OVER 1.5 passing TDs (-125)
Dopp: Goff is coming off his worst sport of the season wherein he threw 5 interceptions. It wasn’t fairly in Houston, because the Texans’ protection harassed him early and infrequently.
The Jaguars’ protection hasn’t been fairly pretty much as good in opposition to quarterbacks, registering solely 21 sacks on the season (eighth-fewest within the league) and solely 5 interceptions (seventh-fewest). The Lions will assuredly plan to make the most of their RBs on this one. And whereas that would imply potential ground-game touchdowns, you higher consider that Lions OC Ben Johnson has plans to get Goff again on observe with some straightforward passes within the brief sport. Over the previous seven video games, Goff has six outings with at the least two touchdowns, with the wet out of doors sport at Lambeau Subject being the one exception. On prime of that, Jacksonville has given up 19 landing passes this yr, the fourth-most within the NFL.
In what seems like a rebound sport at house in opposition to a struggling Jacksonville group, I am absolutely anticipating to see the MVP-level Goff we have seen tor many of the season.
By the way in which, discover how this Goff landing prop leans proper into the Jake Bates additional level prop (you may see it under). We’re all about correlation when potential similar sport parlays!
Mac Jones UNDER 34.5 move makes an attempt (+100)
Dopp: You might be saying to your self: this does not really feel prefer it correlates effectively with the opposite two props. I imply, the Jaguars are heavy underdogs and certain must throw the ball a ton, which might imply taking the over on move makes an attempt right here.
However, not so quick my good friend.
First off, Jones would not encourage a ton of confidence. To be able to throw the ball so much, it’s a must to keep on the sphere a good quantity, and the potential for the Lions to dominate time of place by means of their floor sport is a critical risk to that risk. Add within the propensity for brief drives or three-and-outs from Mac’s offense and you will begin to see why arising wanting this line is an actual risk.
And regardless that the Jags have been taking part in catchup within the majority of their video games, Trevor Lawrence solely hit this line twice in 9 video games, and the Lions have solely allowed one QB to go over 34.5 move makes an attempt all season. In actual fact, the Jags have failed to realize a primary down on 41.5% of their drives this season, third-worst within the NFL.
Whereas it could seem to be sport script might dictate a whole lot of throwing, the Jags must put collectively a whole lot of profitable drives in an effort to keep the amount wanted to go over this mark, one thing I do not see taking place given their lack of ability to realize first downs. It is all the time doable that the Jags might shock us, however I am following the traits.
Working again props
2:15
Subject Yates: Christian McCaffrey is a top-5 RB each week
Stephania Bell and Subject Yates focus on Christian McCaffrey’s return in Week 10 and what it means for the remainder of the fantasy season.
Christian McCaffrey OVER 74.5 dashing yards, scores dashing TD, 49ers win (+190)
Liz Loza: McCaffrey made his 2024 debut final Sunday, logging 19 touches for over 100 scrimmage yards. A lot for being eased again into motion.
McCaffrey might have appeared a bit rusty as a rusher, averaging 3.0 YPC in Week 10, however I am assured he’ll return to type versus a gettable Seahawks run protection that has allowed the fourth-highest YPC at 4.8. To the purpose, CMC has registered at the least 75 dashing yards in every of his 4 conferences as a 49er when going through Seattle. In actual fact, he is truly cleared 100 dashing yards in every of these efforts.
Moreover, the Seahawks have given up eight scores to RBs in 9 video games performed to date, making McCaffery (who led the place in whole scores in 2023) a strong wager to search out pay dust. McCaffrey’s potential to raise the offense can’t be overstated, notably in matchups versus Seattle. Apparently, San Francisco is 4-0 in opposition to the Seahawks within the common season (5-0, when together with the playoffs) since CMC was traded to the 49ers on Oct. 20, 2022. I am all in on this particular wager for a particular participant!
Nick Chubb OVER 59.5 dashing yards (-115)
Loza: Chubb is averaging beneath 3.0 YPC, however many did not even assume it was doable for him to return from a second catastrophic knee damage. Whereas he has managed 37.7 dashing yards per contest and has but to clear the above line, I am betting on Chubb to stay extraordinary. With three contests beneath his belt, and contemporary off a bye, the 28-year-old ought to cruise on the Large Straightforward.
The New Orleans Saints have allowed 5.2 YPC (second-highest) and over 113 dashing yards per sport (sixth-most) to opposing RBs. Given Chubb’s workhorse standing, quantity should not be a problem, as he is managed at the least 15 carries in back-to-back video games. That form of quantity, together with a delicate matchup, and Jameis Winston’s potential to stretch the sphere, Chubb (who averaged over 85 dashing yards per outing from 2019 by means of 2023) figures to report his finest effort of the season on Sunday.
Tight finish props
0:51
Why Travis Kelce’s fantasy season took a flip for the higher
Liz Loza breaks down the fantasy resurgence of Chiefs tight finish Travis Kelce.
Travis Kelce OVER 69.5 receiving yards (+100) and 1+ TD (+140)
Loza: Bear in mind the beginning of the season when the fantasy neighborhood was wringing its collective palms over Kelce’s lack of manufacturing? My how occasions have modified.
Rashee Rice’s damage in Week 4 compelled Kelce to grow to be extra concerned. The star tight finish has since averaged an NFL-best 8.7 receptions per sport and has commanded almost one-third of the Chiefs’ goal share. That enhance in quantity has, naturally, created an uptick in manufacturing, as Kelce has averaged almost 72 receiving yards per sport (clearing the above line in 4 of his previous six outings) throughout that span.
He’ll journey to Orchard Park in Week 11. Apparently, Kelce has both scored or gone over 80 receiving yards in every of his previous seven conferences in opposition to the Buffalo Payments, together with postseason outings. I like the percentages of each occurring in what’s projected to be a detailed sport on Sunday.
Kicker (sure, kicker) props
Jake Bates OVER 3.5 additional factors (+130)
Dopp: All of my props this week are from the identical sport, because the Detroit Lions tackle the Jacksonville Jaguars within the Motor Metropolis. You possibly can play these props solo or put them right into a same-game parlay (SGP) for a little bit additional enjoyable.
I particularly needed to deal with this sport, not due to my Lions fandom, however due to the outrageous 14-point unfold, the most important thus far within the 2024 NFL season.
There must be some good worth that we are able to discover on this one, and I am going with Mr. Clutch himself. After flattening two 50-plus yard discipline targets final week to guide the Lions to an 8-1 begin, Bates’ prop line for XP’s is available in at 3.5. It is a hefty quantity, do not get me unsuitable, however I am all about this one.
Bates has 4 video games this season with 4 or extra additional factors. In actual fact, in each sport the Lions have scored at the least 30 factors, Bates has had at the least 4 additional factors. Given the two-touchdown edge Detroit is getting, I am feeling mighty snug on this Lions offense getting again on observe after eeking out a win in Houston the place Jared Goff threw 5(!) interceptions.
As of publish time, the sport whole is 46.5, which has to favor a Lions offense that averages 30 factors per sport. This high-scoring offense now will get a Jags group that has given up 30 touchdowns in 10 video games thus far this yr — a median of three per sport.
Name me optimistic in believing that the Lions, in opposition to a Mac Jones-led Jaguars group, ought to dominate time of possession and discover themselves scoring in bunches. Plus they’re at house, coming off a detailed win wherein the offense did not play notably effectively, which is why this seems like an incredible “get proper sport” for Detroit.
That is why I am taking former UFL famous person Jake Bates to go over 3.5 additional factors in Week 11.
