As we’ve completed previously, beneath are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers profitable (or shedding) as we speak’s recreation. Three issues that have to occur for them to finish up on the fitting facet of the rating and vice versa of their Week 11 recreation in opposition to the Baltimore Ravens.
My Steelers’ prediction is on the backside.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Pat Freiermuth Has Season-Greatest Efficiency
The Ravens’ go protection has struggled this yr, particularly down the center of the sphere. Roquan Smith hasn’t been practically as sturdy in protection than he was a yr in the past. There’s an opportunity for Pittsburgh to assault actual property they sometimes don’t with Freiermuth down the seams.
Russell Wilson and the Steelers’ offense nonetheless prefers to throw vertically and out of doors the numbers however as OC Arthur Smith identified earlier within the week, they’re nonetheless scheming up performs for Freiermuth. They’ve continued to isolate him on the bottom of three×1 appears, creating matchup issues for defenses. One drew a 20-plus yard DPI final week. At the moment might be a giant one for Freiermuth, doubtlessly hitting 60 yards for the primary time all season.
2. George Pickens Takes Benefit Downfield
Whereas Freiermuth may and will see extra appears over the center, the Steelers bread is buttered the identical approach. As a result of the Ravens don’t are likely to journey prime CB Marlon Humphrey, Pittsburgh can dictate matchups. Get Pickens on CB Brandon Stephens or rookie Nate Wiggins, two proficient however risky corners, and Pickens may win large. He got here up giant with the game-winning downfield landing within the first assembly final yr earlier than being shutout within the finale. Let’s hope Sunday’s efficiency is extra like the previous.
3. Steelers Win Closing 5 Minutes
Which is how they’ve gained so many of those video games. Steelers-Ravens are all the time shut however Pittsburgh merely has a knack for making extra large performs late than Baltimore does. It’s how Pittsburgh gained in opposition to the Washington Commanders final week. Each large play within the last 5 minutes swung the Steelers approach. That’ll be wanted once more in all three phases: offense, protection, and particular groups. Baltimore additionally has struggled within the fourth quarter this yr, permitting two-near comebacks after constructing large leads. They haven’t had as a lot success closing out video games.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Steelers Can’t Type Out Ravens Run Recreation
Kudos to Pittsburgh for subduing Washington however even nonetheless, they allowed 27 factors and will’ve simply given up extra. Baltimore runs the identical type of offense however on the graduate stage. Pittsburgh’s plan previously has been to attenuate Lamar Jackson’s legs and let the operating again have extra success; Mike Tomlin has straight-up admitted to that.
That technique can work when the runner is Austin Ekeler or Gus Edwards. When it’s future Corridor of Famer Derrick Henry? You’re much less assured in profitable that approach. If something, I believe Pittsburgh has to permit Jackson to run a little bit bit on this recreation. The main target wants to begin with Henry. There’s all the time a trade-off and consequence. Solutions right here aren’t simple. But when Pittsburgh can’t have an ace plan, even with their stockpile of defensive expertise, it might be an extended day.
After all, execution can be simply as key. Elandon Roberts, DeShon Elliott, and people cornerbacks who can be examined on the perimeter run recreation (sweeps/crack toss, and so forth). Deliver a tough hat.
2. Ravens Receivers Win Over Center, Get YAC
Baltimore’s offense is extra multi-dimensional than ever earlier than. Their receivers are threats with velocity and post-catch capacity. Zay Flowers is a big-time fear and Pittsburgh’s secondary acquired uncovered in man protection off their stress appears final week in opposition to Washington. Baltimore can hit on the performs Washington couldn’t. CB Donte Jackson must bounce again and DB Cam Sutton has to point out final week was rust, not regression.
3. Pittsburgh’s Run Recreation Will get Caught
Mercifully, the Steelers can lead with their passing recreation. However they nonetheless can’t win solely with it. The run recreation has to get going faster than final week and Baltimore’s run protection remains to be troublesome even when the eye is their sub-par passing protection. That is the No. 1 ranked run protection in soccer. They may be hurting up entrance and never as stout as previous years however they don’t surrender large performs within the operating recreation. Pittsburgh must keep away from operating their head right into a wall.
Prediction
Steelers: 23
Ravens: 21
Season Prediction Document
4-5
