What we discovered in regards to the CFP in Week 12: Georgia’s nonetheless alive, an SEC-Massive Ten debate looms

There are two weeks left in faculty soccer’s common season, and there seem like extra groups hanging round Faculty Soccer Playoff competition than falling out.

No. 12 Georgia, very a lot alive. No. 17 Colorado, buzzing alongside. Bought just a little dicey for No. 3 Texas and No. 14 SMU, however they’re nonetheless going. No. 20 Clemson, hanging in there. Arizona State? Certain, come on in.

Principally what we discovered in regards to the Playoff race in Week 12 is that we’re in all probability heading for a debate about Massive Ten and SEC groups.

Bought that Dawg in ’em

Requested what message Georgia despatched to the Playoff choice committee with its emphatic 31-17 victory towards No. 7 Tennessee, Bulldogs coach Kirby Sensible was stumped.

“I don’t know. As a result of I don’t know what they search for. I don’t know what they search for anymore,” Sensible stated in a postgame interview with ESPN.

I’m nonetheless satisfied a 9-3 Georgia crew would have discovered its manner into the sphere, however after plummeting from No. 3 to twelfth final week following a loss at Ole Miss, Sensible’s crew was most undoubtedly on the brink.

“I might welcome anyone in [the College Football Playoff] committee to come back right down to this league and play on this surroundings. It is a powerful place to play.”

—Kirby Sensible after the win over Tennessee 😤 pic.twitter.com/UvQ3J0WruY

— ESPN Faculty Soccer (@ESPNCFB) November 17, 2024

What we’re studying on this first season of superconferences is the SEC’s absolute best groups haven’t been in a position to separate from the remainder as they did when Alabama was principally operating the league, with interludes from LSU and a latest surge by Georgia. Partially, as a result of these prime groups usually are not fairly nearly as good as they’ve been previously. But in addition, the groups that regularly occupied the second tier of the SEC — Tennessee and Ole Miss most notably — have closed the hole.

Until one thing bizarre occurs towards Georgia Tech within the regular-season finale, the Bulldogs ought to be advantageous at 10-2 it doesn’t matter what the SEC tiebreaker spits out to find out championship sport members.

Missouri was the one SEC crew that formally exited the race — though the Tigers had been barely hanging on earlier than South Carolina broke their hearts in a wild affair at Williams-Brice Stadium.

There’s nonetheless a risk that on Dec. 1, the Sunday earlier than championship weekend, six SEC groups might be 10-2: Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M. That may require Texas A&M beating Texas and no different upsets.

All odds in response to Austin Mock’s projections mannequin

Texas-Texas A&M is wanting extra like an elimination sport. Sure, the Longhorns would nonetheless be 10-2, however among the many contenders, Texas has the least pop on its resume, and it could have misplaced each of its video games towards highly-ranked groups (Georgia, A&M). The Longhorns had a tough time shaking Arkansas on Saturday.

For the Aggies, one other loss can be their third, and their greatest victory would have been towards LSU (6-4). Sufficient stated.

After a convention champ is decided, that ought to go away 4 SEC groups very a lot within the combine for at-large bids. Can all of them get within the area? It probably will rely on how issues play out within the Massive Ten, which occupied 4 of the primary 5 spots within the final CFP rankings and will very nicely do the identical within the subsequent.

That has triggered a variety of consternation in SEC nation as a result of goodness is aware of the poor SEC wants all of the assist it will probably get.

“It’s totally different in our league,” Sensible instructed reporters, including: “Go Dawgs.”

The following Massive Ten sport of the 12 months

For No. 2 Ohio State, subsequent week’s sport towards No. 5 Indiana may very well be its third top-five matchup of the season, except the rankings change on Tuesday.

The Buckeyes are 1-1 on the highway towards Oregon and Penn State. They’ll host the Hoosiers on Saturday. For Indiana, a top-five matchup within the common season can be a program first.

The Hoosiers (10-0) celebrated their off week by giving coach Curt Cignetti an eight-year contract that pays $8 million per 12 months. In the meantime, Ohio State (9-1) took care of enterprise at Wrigley Discipline towards Northwestern.

Oregon (10-0) slogged by way of a spotty offensive efficiency towards Wisconsin, and Penn State (9-1) showcased gifted tight finish Tyler Warren in a lopsided win towards Purdue.

That’s 4 groups with a mixed two losses, however due to the SEC’s logjam, the Massive Ten’s huge 4 have little room for error.

The winner of subsequent week’s sport in Columbus can have the within monitor to the Massive Ten Championship Recreation heading into being a giant favourite in a rivalry sport (Purdue for Indiana and Michigan for Ohio State). The loser of subsequent week’s unlikely marquee matchup in all probability will discover itself in comparison with a minimum of one or two of these 10-2 SEC groups come choice weekend. The Massive Ten’s mushy center, with no different ranked groups and nonconference schedules with no Energy 4 opponents, may very well be an issue for the Hoosiers or Buckeyes.

Welcome, Solar Devils

Arizona State (8-2) is the newest arriving visitor to the Playoff get together amongst Energy 4 groups, profitable three straight and 5 of six — together with 24-14 at Kansas State on Saturday night time.

The Solar Devils’ solely path is probably going by way of a Massive 12 championship, however after Kansas upset No. 6 BYU 17-13 in Provo, Arizona State’s highway to the title sport is easy: beat BYU at residence subsequent week and Arizona after that and the crew that has not been ranked in any ballot all 12 months will play for a Playoff spot on Dec. 7.

Whereas Indiana’s turnaround below Cignetti has in all probability locked up nationwide coach of the 12 months for the Hoosiers’ headman, Arizona State’s second season below Kenny Dillingham has been nearly as spectacular. The Solar Devils went 3-9 final 12 months, barely piecing collectively an offense from week to week. This 12 months, behind a stingy protection and regular play from  Michigan State switch Sam Leavitt at quarterback, Arizona State has been the largest shock in a convention stuffed with them.

All is way from misplaced for BYU. The Cougars are in the identical spot as ASU: Win out and get in. However their first loss is damaging. If BYU might have reached the Massive 12 title sport 12-0, an at-large bid was in all probability nonetheless on the desk if it stumbled at Jerry World. That’s in all probability gone now, and the Massive 12 goes to want some important upsets within the SEC and Massive Ten to get deep into the at-large dialogue.

Travis Hunter and the No. 17 Buffaloes saved rolling towards Utah and are absolutely in command of their postseason destiny within the Massive 12.

However beware Buffs. Up subsequent is Kansas, which has received three of 4, at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas Metropolis.

Mountain West vs. AAC

One of many coolest options of the expanded Playoff is the way in which it will get groups with no connection all of the sudden very invested in each other.

For instance, the budding Boise State–Tulane rivalry.

The Broncos and Inexperienced Wave have by no means performed one another, however with Tulane on an eight-game profitable streak and a spot within the American Athletic Convention championship now clinched, there’s a professional dialogue about which crew may be one of the best within the Group of 5.

After all, unbeaten Military calls for to be a part of that dialog, however Boise State and Tulane have performed far more durable schedules than the Cadets, together with some Energy 4 groups.

Heisman Trophy contender Ashton Jeanty and the No. 13 Broncos stay the clear favorites to earn a Playoff spot as one of many 5 highest-ranked convention champions after rallying from 14-0 right down to beat San Jose State.

Tulane has been the stealth contender after shedding nonconference video games towards Kansas State and Oklahoma in September. First-year coach Jon Sumrall’s crew has not misplaced since leaving Norman and simply entered the rankings for the primary time this week at No. 25.

The Inexperienced Wave (9-2, 7-2) turned the primary crew within the nation to clinch a spot in a convention title sport on Saturday by blowing out Navy 35-0. The end result additionally locked up a spot within the AAC championship for No. 24 Military (9-0, 7-0). With a two-game lead and one to play, the Black Knights clinched whereas taking the week off. The location of the sport on Dec. 6 continues to be to be decided.

Military is the extra fascinating Playoff contender out of the AAC for apparent causes. The Black Knights play No. 8 Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium subsequent week, earlier than closing out the convention schedule at residence vs. UTSA on Nov. 30. Then, after the AAC title sport, Military performs its conventional rivalry sport towards Navy on Dec. 14. That may be every week after the Playoff area is ready, that means the Cadets might have solely every week to organize for a first-round sport, nearly actually on the highway.

That may be wild, however Tulane seems to be just like the extra critical CFP contender out of the AAC behind redshirt freshman quarterback Darian Mensah and defensive lineman Patrick Jenkins.

Boise State is a win away from clinching a spot within the Mountain West title sport, and surprisingly Colorado State controls its destiny for the opposite spot. It might be greatest for the convention if UNLV (8-2) can in some way squeeze previous the Rams, who play neither Boise State nor UNLV within the common season. The Rebels would have a case for a Playoff spot if they might win a postseason rematch with the Broncos.

Good instances within the Group of 5 and undoubtedly extra fascinating than enjoying for a spot in a bowl sport that kicks off at midday on New Yr’s Day towards a Energy 4 crew with a bunch of gamers opting out.

ACC nonetheless a three-team race

SMU (9-1) held off Boston Faculty to stay unbeaten within the ACC, and Clemson (8-2) saved its hopes of sneaking into the convention championship sport alive with a late, lengthy landing run by Cade Klubnik towards Pitt. The Mustangs end with Virginia and Cal and have just a little room to stumble as a result of they maintain a tiebreaker over the Tigers by beating Louisville.

No. 9 Miami (9-1) was off and likewise holds the tiebreaker towards Clemson, which is within the clubhouse with a 7-1 ACC file.

So: about Louisville. The Cardinals had been ranked nineteenth final week, with three losses however all shut video games to ranked groups (SMU, Miami, Notre Dame). Louisville was wanting like a pleasant resume builder for its opponents. Then the Cardinals went to Stanford and in some way managed to blow a 14-point fourth-quarter result in the Cardinal, who received on a walk-off, 52-yard area objective by Emmet Kenney.

How a lot Louisville’s standing mattered is debatable. The ACC was in all probability headed for one CFP bid anyway, however these arguments simply acquired more durable to make.

(Picture: John Adams / Icon Sportswire through Getty Photos)