Week 11 Sunday introduced a couple of blowouts and a few key missed kicks, nevertheless it was highlighted by a few traditional rivalry video games: the Payments knocking off the Chiefs, the Packers surviving in Chicago and the Steelers outlasting the Ravens.
STEELERS DENY THE GAME-TYING 2-PT CONVERSION.
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The AFC North is heating up, the Packers is perhaps readying for one more late-season run and the race for the AFC’s ultimate playoff spot is wide-open. The Athletic NFL writers Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Dan Pompei share their ideas on all of those storylines and extra.
In your thoughts, does the Chiefs’ loss in Buffalo (paired, maybe, with the Ravens’ loss in Pittsburgh) change the best way you view the AFC hierarchy?
Jones: Issues are deliciously intriguing on the high of the AFC. The Chiefs beat the Ravens to start out the season, the Ravens thumped the Payments in Week 4, and now the Payments ship a convincing win over the beforehand undefeated Chiefs on the identical day that the Ravens lose to the Steelers (who will play Kansas Metropolis in Week 17 however won’t face Buffalo this common season). What does it inform us? Any of those high groups are able to beating the opposite, and this race for the highest seed and home-field benefit might come all the way down to the wire. I nonetheless have the Chiefs as the highest workforce within the convention — I cannot guess towards Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid within the postseason. From there, I’ll nonetheless go Baltimore as No. 2 regardless of the robust divisional loss to Pittsburgh — a recreation it ought to have received. From there, Buffalo No. 3, edging the Steelers out by a nostril.
Nguyen: Not likely. The Payments received a aggressive recreation at dwelling. The Steelers received a detailed recreation through which Justin Tucker missed two area objectives. We’ve got to recollect there’s a certain quantity of luck in each recreation, irrespective of how good groups are. I’ll get involved if the Chiefs and Ravens drop one other recreation subsequent week, however shedding in aggressive video games towards superb opponents shouldn’t drastically change how we view groups. The Payments do get a bump up in my e book, however till they will beat the Chiefs within the playoffs, I nonetheless suppose the Chiefs are the most effective workforce within the AFC. The Payments received comparable video games towards the Chiefs within the common season in 2022 and ’23, and the Chiefs went on to win the Tremendous Bowl.
Pompei: The Payments have received six straight, which makes them the most popular workforce within the AFC, if not the most effective. Week by week, they’ve continued to construct their case. The Steelers have the second-longest win streak within the AFC with 5 straight victories, which implies they need to be within the dialog about the most effective workforce within the AFC North. However the Chiefs, regardless of their loss, nonetheless deserve as a lot respect as any workforce. Simply because they aren’t the 1972 Dolphins doesn’t imply they received’t be within the Tremendous Bowl — or win the Tremendous Bowl once more. And as a lot as any of the contenders, the Chiefs have the potential to get higher because the season goes on, as they’re anticipated to have some essential gamers return from accidents.
Does Sunday’s wild win in Pittsburgh inform us extra concerning the Steelers or Ravens in relation to AFC contenders?
Jones: I feel it tells so much about each groups. Let’s begin with the Steelers. As spectacular as their begin to 2024 was, I attempted to order judgment till they performed a top-level workforce. Outdoors of Atlanta, the Chargers and Washington, the Steelers hadn’t performed every other groups with successful data; none of their first 9 opponents had been thought of elite. Baltimore actually match the “elite” billing, because it boasted the league’s most prolific offense, led by two MVP candidates in Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. However the Steelers protection largely held Baltimore in examine — that juggernaut Ravens offense had practically 120 fewer yards and two fewer touchdowns than its season averages. Henry entered Sunday averaging 112 yards per recreation and managed solely 65 yards and a landing on 13 carries. The Steelers additionally pressured three turnovers. They did obtain a present within the type of two missed Justin Tucker area objectives, however Pittsburgh made performs on each side of the ball, displayed grit as all nice groups do, and proved that it’s certainly among the best groups within the AFC.
So far as Baltimore goes: This recreation featured every kind of components that ought to spark concern inside the group. Tucker’s misses stood out, however they actually weren’t the one motive the Ravens misplaced. Three turnovers and 12 penalties additionally factored closely. Baltimore has a proficient workforce, however the Ravens can’t count on to win video games towards elite opponents in the event that they repeatedly shoot themselves within the foot. This loss will come again to hang-out the Ravens when it’s time for playoff seeding.
Nguyen: This recreation informed me so much concerning the Steelers; it was simply one other ode to the tradition that Mike Tomlin has inbuilt Pittsburgh. This was an unsightly, hard-hitting recreation with depth. The sport was received on performs that had been completed with a bit extra effort, like Nate Herbig’s strip of Derrick Henry or rookie Payton Wilson ripping an interception away from Justice Hill on a downfield route. The Ravens drove the ball into Pittsburgh territory a number of instances, however the Steelers dug their heels in and saved the Ravens out of the tip zone all however as soon as. They obtained some assist with two Tucker misses, however I used to be impressed with the Steelers’ resolve. I feel the Ravens are the higher workforce, however that goes out of the window when these rivals play one another.
Pompei: I’m undecided we discovered way more about both workforce in what was a typical AFC North November slugfest. Each are high quality groups, although they didn’t all the time appear like it on Sunday. If the Steelers and Ravens performed subsequent week, the Ravens may win 18-16. After which in the event that they performed once more the week after, the Steelers may win 18-16. It’s that type of rivalry. We are going to study much more Dec. 21 when these groups meet in Baltimore in a recreation that might resolve the AFC North. Then once more, it wouldn’t be shocking to see them paired within the playoffs. If that situation performs out, we might be in for a deal with.
Does Bo Nix have an opportunity to problem Jayden Daniels for Offensive Rookie of the 12 months honors?
Jones: Daniels obtained off to a powerful begin to the season; he displayed nice accuracy as a passer and unbelievable working potential, and Washington seems prefer it has a extremely good probability to interrupt its four-year playoff drought. However Daniels has cooled off a bit ever since that rib harm, and Washington has now misplaced two straight — only a hiccup, or are defenses beginning to determine Daniels and Kliff Kingsbury’s offense?
In the meantime, Nix is surging. He seems so comfy in Sean Payton’s offense and has multiple-touchdown performances in three of his final 4 video games. This week, he had each his first 300-yard outing and his first four-touchdown efficiency to assist the Broncos enhance to 6-5. If he retains delivering performances like this and helps Denver snap its nine-year playoff drought whereas Daniels struggles to recapture his early season type, Nix actually might problem.
Nguyen: Will probably be an attention-grabbing battle as we go down the stretch. Kingsbury’s offenses have a pattern of beginning scorching after which falling off towards the tip of the 12 months. A few of that has to do with quarterbacks (Kyler Murray then, Daniels now) taking an excessive amount of of a burden as runners and scramblers, and defenses catching as much as the simplicity of the offense. We’ll see if that pattern continues with Washington, or if he can evolve his offense to keep away from a fall-off.
Nix seems to be getting higher each week, and Payton is dialing up performs to get guys huge open for him. Payton has clearly had an extended monitor report of success, so I really feel a bit higher concerning the Broncos offense persevering with to get higher, which might give Nix a robust probability of successful Rookie of the 12 months. I consider Daniels is the higher participant, however stats and offensive success will clearly have a big impact on who wins the award.
Pompei: The award might be determined over the following six video games, however Daniels has a substantial lead. If Nix had been a inventory, analysts would price him a “purchase” as a result of he has appreciable development potential, as we’ve seen in latest video games. That isn’t to say Daniels can be a “promote.” He’s a “purchase” as effectively. It’s going to be tough for Daniels to be as spectacular within the ultimate six video games as he was within the first 11. Daniels’ final two video games in all probability had been his worst two, however he’s very able to ending robust. These are two stable younger quarterbacks who ought to win a number of video games within the NFL.
Final 12 months, the Packers got here on late within the 12 months and ended up successful a playoff recreation — and virtually knocking off the 49ers within the divisional spherical. Does this 12 months’s workforce profile equally?
Nguyen: This Packers workforce is best than final 12 months’s version. The protection isn’t elite, however is an improved unit below new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. Final season, the offense took off down the stretch. This offense hasn’t seemed as explosive as final season, however the Packers have handled a number of accidents — together with Jordan Love lacking a number of video games. If the Packers’ passing recreation improves, they’ve the protection to make them a legit contender within the NFC. The inconsistency of Love and his promising group of younger cross catchers is frustrating however they really feel near a breakout. To have the ability to nonetheless win seven video games with the accidents and offensive inconsistencies exhibits that this workforce has many avenues to successful video games.
Jones: I feel a number of it is dependent upon Love. He was unbelievable down the stretch final season. This 12 months, nevertheless, he’s scuffling with ball safety, having thrown no less than one interception in each recreation he’s performed on this season. That is proper concerning the time he heated up final 12 months, throwing 18 landing passes and one interception during the last eight regular-season video games (Inexperienced Bay received six of these video games). I feel this workforce has the power to contend within the playoffs. The Packers offense is extra well-rounded, and their protection is best. However Love is the important thing to how far they will go.
Pompei: These Packers could possibly be higher than these Packers, however provided that Love can begin taking part in extra like he did a 12 months in the past — and there’s motive to consider he can enhance now that he’s wholesome. He threw his eleventh interception of the season Sunday, which tied his whole for all of final season. That choose got here in the long run zone and will have value the Packers the sport. Their protection has been higher (although it wasn’t superb towards the Bears Sunday). The important thing because the climate turns could possibly be their working recreation, which must be improved with Josh Jacobs.
A month from now, are we going to be speaking concerning the Dolphins, Colts, each or neither as competing for the seventh seed within the AFC?
Pompei: The competitors for the final wild-card spot within the AFC might come all the way down to the Dolphins, Colts, Bengals and Broncos. The Dolphins might need extra potential than the Colts as a result of they could possibly be buoyed by Tua Tagovailoa’s return. They’ve a manageable schedule down the stretch, with three video games that look actually difficult — at Inexperienced Bay and Houston, and residential towards the 49ers. The Colts have a better street, as they need to have an honest probability of successful each remaining recreation apart from subsequent week towards the Lions. The wild-card for them is reliant on the play and improvement of Anthony Richardson. If he performs like he did Sunday, the Colts very effectively could possibly be within the playoffs.
Jones: I feel it’s doable that each might be within the working. There’s little or no margin for error, however each groups appear to be figuring issues out and taking part in higher than they did early within the season. The Colts protection has improved, and on Sunday Richardson executed higher than he did previous to his benching. The Dolphins offense is much more practical now that Tagovailoa is again; he provides them hope. Trying on the schedules the remainder of the best way, the Colts (5-6) have winnable video games in 4 of their subsequent six contests (they play the Lions, Patriots, Broncos, Titans, Giants and Jaguars). They’re doubtless not beating the Lions, and the Broncos are iffy. However the Patriots, Titans, Giants and Jaguars are all very winnable. Which means, they’re 9-8? Maaaaybe 10-7?
In the meantime, the Dolphins (4-6) have a bit little bit of a harder street. They’ve practical photographs at beating the Patriots, Jets, Browns and Jets once more, however the Packers, Texans and 49ers might be robust matchups. Whereas they is perhaps within the combine late, 8-9 isn’t doubtless going to get the job carried out. And naturally, that is all hinging on the Broncos, at present the seventh seed, faltering. They’ve the Raiders, Browns, Colts, Chargers, Bengals and Chiefs remaining.
Nguyen: The Colts protection has been improved after an abysmal begin to the season, however I nonetheless don’t belief them. Richardson performed among the best video games he’s performed within the professionals on Sunday however I nonetheless wish to see extra consistency from him (although it’s actually thrilling to see how a lot he’s improved along with his footwork and accuracy since his time on the bench). The Dolphins look to have the most effective probability to get into playoff rivalry. Tagovailoa is again and, though he hasn’t been as productive as he’s been when Miami’s offense was at its peak, he’s taking part in at a really excessive stage.Tyreek Hill isn’t 100% and defenses have taken away the center of the sphere, however within the final two video games Tagovailoa has made a number of game-changing performs exterior of construction.
The Dolphins protection appears to have discovered its stride. Defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver is from the Mike Macdonald tree and that system takes a bit time to study as a result of gamers should study everybody else’s job. As soon as they do, they will combine and match personnel and assignments and actually confuse offenses. The Dolphins defenders appear like they’re attending to that time. This can be a harmful Miami workforce.
(Prime picture: Timothy T. Ludwig / Getty Pictures)
