Arab states are banking on Saudi Arabia to make use of its relationship with Donald Trump and political heft within the area to behave as a verify on the president-elect’s Center East insurance policies amid fears that he’ll pursue a staunchly pro-Israel agenda.
After Trump named quite a few ardently pro-Israeli nominees and Iran hawks for key positions, Arab officers fear his incoming administration may approve any strikes by Israel to annex the occupied West Financial institution, occupy Gaza or escalate tensions with Tehran.
However they hope Riyadh can mood the incoming administration’s insurance policies within the area by leveraging Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s relationship with Trump, the president-elect’s urge for food for monetary offers and his anticipated need to strike a “grand cut price” that may lead Saudi Arabia and Israel to normalise relations.
“The important thing participant within the area is Saudi Arabia due to their identified relations with him, so will probably be the linchpin of any regional actions the US may determine to do,” mentioned an Arab diplomat.
One other Arab official mentioned Prince Mohammed could be “key” in influencing Trump’s insurance policies in direction of ending Israel’s conflict in opposition to Hamas in Gaza and extra broadly on Palestinian points, utilizing the potential for normalisation with Israel as leverage.
“Saudi Arabia might closely affect how Trump offers with Gaza and Palestine,” the official mentioned. “A whole lot of the international locations within the area are involved about what comes subsequent.”
Throughout Trump’s first time period, Saudi Arabia embraced his transactional model and his “most strain” marketing campaign in opposition to its regional rival Iran. Trump stood by Prince Mohammed when different western leaders cold-shouldered the dominion’s de facto chief after Saudi brokers murdered journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.
Trump additionally boasted that he would dealer the “final deal” to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian battle. However these plans, overseen by his son-in-law Jared Kushner, fell flat, with the Palestinians and Arab states viewing the proposals as being far too tilted in favour of Israel. Trump additionally reduce support to the Palestinians, closed their diplomatic mission in Washington, moved the US embassy to Jerusalem — the standing of which is disputed — and recognised Israel’s declare to sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights. He did, nonetheless, dealer the so-called Abraham accords, through which the UAE and three different Arab states normalised relations with Israel.
Trump advised al-Arabiya, a Saudi tv channel, final month that relations between the US and Saudi Arabia throughout his presidency have been “nice, with capital letters, G. R. E.A.T”.
“A lot respect for the king, a lot respect for Mohammed who’s accomplished so nice, he’s actually a visionary,” he mentioned.
After US President Joe Biden took workplace, Riyadh maintained ties to Trump, with its Public Funding Fund — the sovereign wealth fund chaired by Prince Mohammed — investing $2bn in a non-public fairness fund arrange by Kushner.
The PIF’s governor, Yasir al-Rumayyan, shared front-row seats with Trump at a UFC struggle in New York over the weekend. Trump’s programs have additionally hosted occasions run by LIV Golf, one of many PIF’s highest-profile sporting ventures.
However Prince Mohammed has recalibrated Saudi Arabia’s regional insurance policies since Biden took workplace. Riyadh restored diplomatic relations with Iran in 2023 in a coverage of détente it has continued to pursue since Hamas’s October 7 2023 assault triggered a wave of battle throughout the area.
Whereas a Biden administration plan to normalise relations with Israel as a part of a three-way deal that would come with a Saudi-US defence treaty was upended by the conflict, the US nonetheless considers the dominion vital to efforts to any regional settlement to the disaster.
Riyadh has, nonetheless, hardened its criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right authorities because the Palestinian dying toll has soared.
In October, Saudi international minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan mentioned normalisation with Israel was “off the desk till there’s a decision to Palestinian statehood”.
And Prince Mohammed final week used an Arab and Islamic summit in Riyadh to accuse Israel of committing “genocide” in Gaza, whereas condemning its conflict in opposition to Hizbollah in Lebanon and its strikes in opposition to Iran.
Diplomats and analysts interpreted his speech as a message to Washington and Netanyahu that the Muslim world was united in its condemnation of Israel’s navy offensives and their help for the institution of a Palestinian state. On Tuesday, Riyadh decried what it described “as extremist Israeli statements about imposing sovereignty over the West Financial institution”.
Throughout his marketing campaign, Trump promised to convey peace to the Center East and finish the conflict. However lots of his nominees are ardently pro-Israel, together with Mike Huckabee, his choose for ambassador to Israel, and Steven Witkoff, an actual property magnate he has appointed Center East envoy.
Trump has mentioned, nonetheless, that he needs to broaden the Abraham accords, telling al-Arabiya that “the framework is there, all they need to do is reinsert it and that may occur in a short time”.
“If I win, that will likely be an absolute precedence . . . simply getting everybody in peace within the Center East,” Trump mentioned. “It would occur.”
Saudi Arabia could be essential to unlocking any growth of the Abraham accords, however Arab officers imagine Trump will succeed solely by pressuring Netanyahu to make concessions to the Palestinians on the institution of a Palestinian state, one thing the Israeli PM vociferously rejects.
A second Arab diplomat argued this meant “Trump will not be in want of every other participant within the Center East proper now greater than Saudi Arabia”.
“Trump is any person who likes to be handed ready-deals he can take credit score for,” the diplomat mentioned. “So if MBS presents him with a deal . . . it’s a chance, nevertheless it is likely to be the one chance.”
Arab officers additionally hope will probably be more durable for Trump to sideline the Palestinians as the extent of shock attributable to the devastation in Gaza has put their trigger again on the prime of the regional agenda. Leaders fear concerning the battle radicalising segments of their very own populations, significantly among the many youth, Prince Mohammed’s principal constituency.
“Trump might want to finish the conflict in Gaza and to do this you’ll want to deal with the day after,” mentioned the primary Arab diplomat. “He’ll want some give attention to the Palestinian monitor or the regional aspect gained’t work. Saudi Arabia has mentioned bluntly that except there’s a Palestinian state, normalisation will not be an possibility.”
This has offered Prince Mohammed with a possibility to mission himself, and his kingdom, because the regional chief. However the function comes with pitfalls given Trump’s unpredictability and Netanyahu’s refusal to countenance any concessions to the Palestinians.
“The Saudis have manoeuvred effectively by presenting themselves as not the chief, however the architect of an Arab and Muslim consensus, and in doing so, unfold the duty,” mentioned Emile Hokayem on the Worldwide Institute for Strategic Research. “The query is, can it take the warmth and take care of the publicity? Can it take care of the potential failure?”
The second Arab diplomat mentioned Prince Mohammed had discovered the “password” to the Center East’s management function.
“The one challenge that unites the Arab world is the Palestinian challenge,” the diplomat mentioned. “The query is how a lot Saudi Arabia can make investments on this . . . and the way a lot Netanyahu can have the flexibility to torpedo it.”
Extra reporting by Ahmed Al Omran in Riyadh
