Key to Trump’s Win: Heavy Losses for Harris Throughout the Map

It might look like a transparent story: Donald Trump gained the election by profitable probably the most votes. He improved on his totals, including about 2.5 million extra votes than 4 years in the past. However simply as consequential to the result have been Kamala Harris’s losses: She earned about 7 million fewer votes in contrast with Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s efficiency in 2020.

Ms. Harris failed to search out new voters in three of the seven swing states and in 80 p.c of counties throughout the nation, a New York Occasions evaluation reveals. Within the locations the place she matched or exceeded Mr. Biden’s vote totals, she did not match Mr. Trump’s positive factors.

We are able to’t but know what number of Biden voters backed Mr. Trump or didn’t vote in any respect this cycle. However the decline in help for Ms. Harris in a number of the nation’s most liberal areas is especially notable. In contrast with Mr. Biden, she misplaced tons of of hundreds of votes in main cities together with Chicago, Los Angeles and New York, and general earned about 10 p.c fewer votes in counties Mr. Biden gained 4 years in the past.

Mr. Trump, in contrast, discovered new voters in most counties, with vital positive factors in pink states like Texas and Florida and likewise in blue states like New Jersey and New York.

Larry Sabato, the director of the Middle for Politics on the College of Virginia, acknowledged that Biden voters who swung towards Mr. Trump performed an element in Ms. Harris’s loss, however pointed to low Democratic turnout because the bigger issue.

“They only weren’t excited,” Mr. Sabato stated of Democratic voters. “They have been most likely disillusioned by inflation, possibly the border. They usually didn’t have the motivation to stand up and exit to vote.”

The nationwide rightward shift is a continuation of voting patterns seen within the final two elections. Even in his 2020 defeat, Mr. Trump discovered new voters throughout the nation. (Each events earned extra votes in 2020 than in 2016.) And though Democrats outperformed expectations in 2022, when some had predicted a “pink wave,” they misplaced many citizens who have been dissatisfied with rising costs, pandemic-era restrictions and immigration coverage.

On the native stage, three distinct patterns assist illustrate the general consequence in 2024:

1. The place each candidates gained votes, however Trump gained extra.

In hard-fought Georgia, each events discovered new voters, however Mr. Trump outperformed Ms. Harris. For instance, in Fulton County, which incorporates most of Atlanta, Ms. Harris gained about 4,500 votes, however Mr. Trump gained greater than 7,400.

How vote totals modified in Atlanta precincts

The place every candidate obtained
extra votes
or
fewer votes in 2024, in contrast with 2020

Trump

Harris

By Eli Murray, Elena Shao, Charlie Sensible and Christine Zhang

Along with his positive factors within the Atlanta space, Mr. Trump gained new voters in each different a part of Georgia. He flipped the state again to Republicans after Mr. Biden’s win there in 2020. He equally outran Ms. Harris the place she made positive factors in Wake County, N.C., Lancaster County, Pa., and Montgomery County, Texas.

2. The place Trump gained a little bit and Harris misplaced a little bit.

In Milwaukee County in swing-state Wisconsin, Ms. Harris misplaced 1,200 voters in contrast with Mr. Biden’s whole in 2020, whereas Mr. Trump gained greater than 3,500.

How vote totals modified in Milwaukee precincts

The place every candidate obtained
extra votes
or
fewer votes in 2024, in contrast with 2020

Trump

Harris

By Eli Murray, Elena Shao, Charlie Sensible and Christine Zhang

Ms. Harris nonetheless gained the county at massive, however her margins there and in different liberal enclaves of Wisconsin weren’t sufficient to carry off Mr. Trump’s victories in rural, blue-collar counties that voted Republican in 2016 and 2020.

Democrats’ incapability to take care of their vote totals in battleground states was additionally obvious within the essential areas round Charlotte, N.C., Flint, Mich., and Scranton, Pa.

3. The place Trump gained a little bit and Harris misplaced quite a bit.

Mr. Trump gained Florida’s Miami-Dade County, changing into the primary Republican to take action since 1988. However once more, Ms. Harris’s loss was simply as a lot of the story as his acquire: Mr. Trump gained about 70,000 new votes within the county, whereas she misplaced practically 140,000.

How vote totals modified in Miami precincts

The place every candidate obtained
extra votes
or
fewer votes in 2024, in contrast with 2020

Trump

Harris

By Eli Murray, Elena Shao, Charlie Sensible and Christine Zhang

Different counties that Mr. Trump flipped had related vote disparities. In 21 of those 77 counties, Mr. Trump obtained fewer votes on this election than in 2020, however the Democratic vote drop-off was a lot steeper. This occurred from coast to coast, from Fresno County, Calif., to Pinellas County, Fla.

Joel Benenson, the chief pollster for Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns, stated he thought Democratic turnout was damage by the get together’s lack of a presidential main. (Mr. Biden dropped out of the race in July.) That course of, he stated, helps energize core voters who become involved with volunteering, making cellphone calls and knocking on doorways early within the 12 months.

“That was an actual problem for Vice President Harris, who had a brief runway and would have benefited from an actual main season,” Mr. Benenson stated. “Republicans had a contested main — even with a former president, they didn’t simply hand it to him.”

Mr. Trump was clearly in a position to harness enthusiasm past his base. He made positive factors throughout nearly all teams ranging in demographics, schooling and earnings, together with people who historically made up the Democratic coalition. Ms. Harris did not match Mr. Biden among the many similar teams.

Pre-election polls confirmed minority voters swinging towards Mr. Trump, and he appeared to make positive factors with these teams. He picked up votes in majority-Hispanic counties and in Black neighborhoods of main cities, a preliminary evaluation of precinct information reveals. However he misplaced votes, as did Ms. Harris, in majority-Black counties, particularly these within the South the place turnout dropped general.

Mr. Trump discovered new voters in additional than 30 states, together with within the battleground states that have been the websites of sturdy campaigning. His positive factors have been modest in most different locations. Ms. Harris was in a position to enhance on Mr. Biden’s efficiency in solely 4 of the seven battlegrounds and simply 5 states general.

John McLaughlin, Mr. Trump’s marketing campaign pollster, stated the marketing campaign was targeted on discovering supporters who weren’t dependable voters and ensuring they turned out to the polls. He stated that inside polling confirmed that voters who solid a poll in 2024 after not voting in 2022 or 2020 supported Mr. Trump, 52 p.c to 46 p.c.

“The technique was very very like 2016, to carry out informal voters who thought the nation was on the unsuitable observe,” Mr. McLaughlin stated. “These voters blamed Biden and Harris and usually had optimistic approval for Trump.”