The primary full Saturday of the school soccer season is within the books, and the Faculty Soccer Playoff race is already high of thoughts.
Sure, it’s just one week of video games. Sure, we at all times overreact to Week 1. Sure, there’s a ton of soccer nonetheless to be performed. But it surely’s unimaginable to disregard the brand new 12-team CFP as a result of each Soccer Bowl Subdivision workforce enters the season with an opportunity to make the sphere now. And even one week of motion was sufficient to tell some takeaways that may impression the CFP race the remainder of the best way.
Listed below are 5 Playoff-adjacent classes from Week 1.
1. Brace your self for some blowouts in December.
Lopsided outcomes have been a frequent concern within the 10 years of the four-team CFP. Whether or not within the semifinals (Alabama vs. everybody) or the nationwide championship recreation (Georgia 65, TCU 7), a number of Playoff matchups was blowouts as a result of the highest couple of groups within the sport have been so a lot better than everybody else. Georgia and Clemson’s neutral-site opener in Atlanta doubled as a take a look at for a 12-team period, because the No. 1 ranked SEC favourite took on one of many high groups within the ACC, ranked No. 14.
The outcome: a 34-3 beatdown by which the Bulldogs outscored the Tigers by 25 within the second half. Georgia seems to be nearly as good as everybody thought it could be. It’s exhausting to think about the Bulldogs not reaching the Playoff for the third time in 4 years, whether or not because the SEC champion or as one of many seven at-large picks. Georgia has a tricky schedule, touring to Alabama in Week 4, to Texas in mid-October and to Ole Miss in November, however any SEC contender with two losses remains to be prone to make the sphere. That reality could in the future take a number of the shine off of those high-profile nonconference common season checks, however that’s the worth being paid to make sure extra common championship entry in an expanded Playoff. And if this Georgia workforce will get matched up with one other ACC workforce, a Huge 12 workforce or a Group of 5 workforce in December’s early rounds, the expertise disparity may result in ugly last margins like we noticed on Saturday.
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Clemson, in the meantime, exhibited all the identical offensive issues it did a yr in the past. Georgia could also be the most effective workforce within the nation, however the Tigers once more don’t appear to be a nationwide championship contender primarily based on Saturday’s effort. Nonetheless, the 12-team format means no Energy 4 convention workforce’s season is finished after Week 1. All Clemson has to do is win the ACC to ensure itself a spot. And that also appears doable as a result of…
2. Miami seems to be improbable, however the remainder of the ACC doesn’t.
Whereas the ACC league workplace battles Florida State and Clemson in court docket amid the 2 members’ ongoing efforts to interrupt free from the convention’s grant of rights settlement, it could’ve behooved the ACC to get off to a robust begin on the sphere and maintain the realignment noise within the background. The league entered the season with no scarcity of optimism due to seven groups within the AP ballot’s high 30 (three of which landed simply outdoors the High 25).
As an alternative, it’s been a tough first week for what was perceived to be the highest of the league. Defending champion and preseason favourite Florida State misplaced to Georgia Tech in Eire in Week 0, Clemson bought shellacked by Georgia on Saturday, well-liked darkish horse decide Virginia Tech misplaced to Vanderbilt, and preseason No. 24 NC State wanted a fourth-quarter comeback to flee Western Carolina on Thursday.
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However then there’s Miami! The Hurricanes lived as much as their offseason hype with a dominant 41-17 win at Florida. Switch quarterback Cam Ward appeared spectacular, as did Miami’s different switch additions. That’s getting what you paid for. It’s just one week, however Miami appeared like the most effective workforce within the league by a large margin. And with a schedule that avoids Clemson and attracts Virginia Tech and Florida State at dwelling, Miami will all of the sudden be a extremely popular decide to make the CFP.
The Hurricanes now have a 42 p.c probability to make the Playoff and a 23 p.c probability to win the ACC, per Austin Mock’s projections mannequin, whereas Clemson and Florida State have every fallen to a 20 p.c probability to make the CFP. Past Miami, the remainder of the league might want to play a lot better if the convention desires to discover a second CFP bid.
ACC title and Playoff odds (Sept. 1)
Discover all CFP projections right here
3. Penn State seems to be like an actual contender.
When the CFP expanded to 12 groups, Penn State the largest beneficiary: The Nittany Lions completed ranked within the high 12 six instances since 2016 however by no means made the four-team CFP area.
That feeling is even stronger after Penn State’s dominant 34-12 win at West Virginia. The protection was its regular bodily and stout self, however the offense was explosive, and dare I say thrilling, after drawing meme-worthy ridicule for its unwillingness to assault vertically final yr. The Nittany Lions had two completions of at the very least 50 yards on Saturday after having simply 5 all of final season. Quarterback Drew Allar completed 11 of 17 passing for 216 yards and three touchdowns, plus one other 44 yards on the bottom. He appeared composed and sharp on the highway in a means he didn’t final yr.
It’s early, however Penn State appeared like a workforce that may simply not make the CFP, however win a recreation or two. The Nittany Lions now have a 74 p.c probability to make the CFP, per our mannequin, up from 67 p.c earlier than Week 1.
4. Notre Dame has an inside path to the Playoff already.
As an impartial, the Combating Irish don’t have a convention championship to play for, and since the highest 4 seeds within the expanded CFP go to the 4 highest-ranked convention champions, even a Notre Dame workforce ranked No. 1 on the finish of the season wouldn’t get a first-round bye. Nonetheless, the extra at-large bids accessible within the expanded area significantly assist the Irish’s possibilities of making the Playoff, and after a season-opening 23-13 win towards Texas A&M in Faculty Station, Notre Dame ought to already be closely favored to qualify, with a 72 p.c to make it, in accordance with The Athletic’s mannequin.
It’s very possible Notre Dame might be favored in each recreation left on its schedule: The hardest remaining video games are in all probability at Georgia Tech, at dwelling towards Florida State and at USC to shut the yr. The Irish can in all probability afford to lose a type of and nonetheless make the CFP area at 11-1. Marcus Freeman’s workforce has Playoff expectations this yr, and Saturday’s win was a large step towards that objective. A consequential Week 1 win makes their margin for error that a lot wider.
5. The Group of 5 favorites escaped some scares, with massive Energy 4 checks forward.
The brand new stakes for the Group of 5 have been made clear instantly when Boise State, the preseason favourite for the CFP spot reserved for the G5’s highest-ranked convention champion, trailed Georgia Southern on the highway within the fourth quarter. The Broncos rallied to win 56-45 on the again of 377 speeding yards between Ashton Jeanty and Sire Gaines, retaining their Mountain West front-runner standing and juicing Jeanty’s draft inventory. Subsequent up is a visit to Oregon, which wanted to carry on to outlive an upset bid from FCS Idaho.
Solar Belt favourite Appalachian State led East Tennessee State by simply seven factors deep into the third quarter however ultimately received 38-10. Subsequent up for the Mountaineers: a visit to Clemson.
In the meantime, defending Convention USA champion Liberty trailed FCS Campbell deep into the second quarter and solely led by 10 factors getting into the fourth however ultimately received 41-24. AAC favourite Memphis, for its half, had no hassle throughout a 40-0 win towards FCS North Alabama. The Tigers journey to Florida State in two weeks. The energy of those groups’ and their conferences’ resumes might be underneath scrutiny all fall.
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(Photograph: Jack Gorman / Getty Photographs)
