After opposition forces took Syria’s second-biggest metropolis of Aleppo in a shock offensive, images confirmed an individual draping a Turkish flag over the wall of the medieval citadel. It seemed to be the act of a lone particular person, however the picture was picked up by pro-government Turkish media as an emblem of the sway Ankara has lengthy wielded in its neighbour’s civil warfare.
The 13-year battle reignited late final week when the rebels, led by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), moved into Aleppo on Friday with little resistance. Turkish-backed factions, that are co-ordinating with HTS, then launched an assault on Sunday on the strategically vital northern city of Tel Rifaat, managed by Syrian Kurdish forces.
The dramatic insurgent advance has put a renewed highlight on Turkey’s position within the shattered Arab state, the place for years it has been the principle backer of rebels who rose up towards President Bashar al-Assad in 2011.
In contrast to different Syrian insurgent factions, HTS shouldn’t be immediately backed by Turkey. However analysts say the offensive is unlikely to have taken place with out the acquiescence of Ankara, and will strengthen President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s affect in any future negotiations with Assad and his backers, Russia and Iran.
“With out Turkey’s inexperienced mild, this operation would by no means be potential,” stated Gönül Tol, a director on the Center East Institute in Washington and creator of a e book on Turkey’s position within the Syrian warfare.
“Turkey noticed a possibility to vary the dynamics on the bottom, weaken Assad’s hand and show to the following US administration it may possibly curb Iranian affect successfully,” she stated.
Neither Erdoğan nor different officers have confirmed Turkish involvement, with international minister Hakan Fidan on Monday telling reporters that “it will be flawed to elucidate away the occasions in Syria as a international intervention”.
However the offensive has supplied Turkey with a possibility to mobilise allied factions to push again towards Kurdish forces it considers an extension of the Kurdistan Staff’ social gathering (PKK), a separatist group that has been combating the Turkish state for many years. Stopping the Kurdish militants from amassing on Turkey’s border has been the prime motivation for Erdoğan’s choice to intervene in Syria lately.
Earlier than the insurgent offensive, Ankara had expressed deep frustration with Assad’s refusal to barter with the Syrian opposition. Damascus rebuffed uncommon overtures from Erdoğan this yr to fix ties that had been severed after Turkey sided with the rebels in 2011.
Turkey is in the end the protector of Idlib, the north-western Syrian province that’s HTS’s stronghold. It has additionally deployed 1000’s of Turkish troops and armed and educated insurgent factions, identified collectively because the Syrian Nationwide Military, in elements of north-west and northern Syria which can be beneath Turkish management.
Whereas it labels HTS as a terrorist group, Turkey performs a significant position making certain the survival of the rebels’ enclave. HTS and the SNA, which have beforehand clashed with one another, have co-ordinated for the most recent offensive, analysts say.
One among Turkey’s goals has been to strain the US to finish its help for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in north-east Syria — a perennial supply of friction between the Nato allies. The US has backed the SDF as its key Syrian associate within the battle towards Isis and it has about 900 troops deployed in Syria.
President-elect Donald Trump was sympathetic to Erdoğan’s calls for throughout his first time period, however his incoming administration might now view withdrawing US troops as a concession to Iran.
Erdoğan has additionally crafted a posh partnership in Syria with Russian President Vladimir Putin, regardless of the 2 supporting reverse sides within the warfare. Turkey and Russia reached a ceasefire deal for Idlib in March 2020, which introduced a semblance of stability to the realm, and each can be integral to figuring out what occurs subsequent.
“We had this picture of the Turks that they’re often thoughtful of Russian pursuits,” stated Hanna Notte, director for Eurasia on the James Martin Middle for Non-proliferation Research. “I don’t assume Putin is simply too happy with this . . . however possibly each of them didn’t assume this [offensive] would go this far.”
Aware of its balancing act with Moscow, Ankara has avoided immediately intervening within the newest combating. Can Acun, a international coverage researcher at Ankara’s Seta think-tank, stated Turkey even restrained the opposition from responding sooner to latest assaults by Syrian authorities forces and Russian warplanes on Idlib.
However in latest weeks, Erdoğan revived his threats of a brand new direct Turkish army offensive towards the SDF. “Our will to resolve terrorism at its supply is stronger than ever,” he stated on Saturday. “We won’t hesitate to take new steps.”
Ilham Ahmed of the UK-based Syrian Democratic Council, the SDF’s political wing, stated in a press release that Kurdish communities and different minority teams had been “going through an more and more precarious state of affairs in northern Syria” after the offensive.
Erdoğan has additionally promised that the three.2mn Syrians who sought shelter in Turkey, a fraught political problem that seems to have value his Justice and Improvement social gathering votes in native elections this yr, will return to their very own nation.
His vice-president, Cevdet Yılmaz, informed members of the ruling social gathering on Sunday that Turkey now anticipated a political decision that can see refugees go residence.
However a former Turkish diplomat, talking on situation of anonymity, warned that Turkey might as a substitute face a brand new refugee disaster. Almost 50,000 folks have been displaced within the newest clashes, in keeping with a UN official on Sunday.
“Making a heroic narrative that Turkey, or its proxies, can take management of Aleppo is directed at nationalist sentiment, however we might sink within the mud,” the diplomat stated, including that Turkey risked harming its relations with each the west and Russia.
Fidan stated Turkey didn’t need the warfare to escalate and displace extra folks and he known as once more for Iran and Russia to encourage dialogue between Damascus and the opposition.
However the time for talks might now be misplaced, stated the diplomat: “It is a political fantasy. We don’t even know whether or not Assad nonetheless has the political authority to fulfil Turkey’s expectations when it seems he doesn’t even have a military.”
Extra reporting by Raya Jalabi in Beirut
Cartography by Steven Bernard
