Taking on the trigger for Alabama and the SEC seems like going to bat for Apple or Amazon. It’s combating for a tax break for Elon Musk or Warren Buffet. It’s speeding to the protection of the most important bully on the block the one time any individual will get in a shot that knocks him to his knees.
But right here I’m, making the case for the Crimson Tide because the staff the School Soccer Playoff choice snubbed from the primary 12-team area.
I do like having an ally within the biggest coach of all time. ESPN’s Nick Saban, wearing a crimson jacket on the choice present, tried to keep away from sounding like a shill for this system he spent 17 years working, however his stance got here by way of loud and clear.
“All wins should not the identical as different wins,” Saban stated throughout ESPN’s excruciatingly lengthy lead-in to revealing the bracket Sunday. “In different phrases, what we’ve at all times completed publicly in school is take a look at file. We don’t take a look at energy of schedule. We don’t take a look at all these sorts of issues.”
This can be a left-brain (analytical considering), right-brain (emotional processing) deal.
If the committee actually had checked out “these sorts of issues,” if this was extra of a data-driven course of, Alabama could be within the Playoff as an alternative of SMU.
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Power of schedule metrics range, however most come to the same conclusion about Alabama and SMU. The Crimson Tide’s schedule was extra rigorous. ESPN’s FPI has Alabama taking part in the 18th hardest schedule and SMU the 57th hardest.
Most energy rankings, that are forward-looking analytics, have Alabama forward of SMU. The Athletic’s personal modeler, Austin Mock, would have Alabama as a six-point favourite on a impartial area towards SMU.
Years of recruiting rankings will let you know Alabama has one of the proficient rosters within the nation and that the SEC is the place probably the most good soccer gamers will be discovered. The SEC acquired three groups (Georgia, Texas, Tennessee) within the bracket, one fewer than the Massive Ten and yet one more than the ACC.
“As somebody with entry to varsity tape and workers of 11 former NFL scouts that logged a whole lot of hours evaluating this CFB season, it’s straightforward to see why SEC coaches are upset with the ultimate playoff bracket,” Senior Bowl government director Jim Nagy posted on X. “Primarily based strictly off future NFL expertise, Alabama, South Carolina, & Ole Miss (and you may even throw in Florida, Texas A&M, and LSU for that matter) are all simply in High-12.”
I get it. Alabama at all times appears to get the nod from the choice committee. When doubtful, go together with the staff that made the CFP eight instances in 10 years when it was a four-team format — and received it thrice.
Even final 12 months, the committee bypassed unbeaten Florida State — as a result of it misplaced star quarterback Jordan Travis to a season-ending damage — in favor of one-loss Alabama.
Do we actually want to offer the good thing about the doubt to the worst Alabama staff in virtually 20 years, one which misplaced video games to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, each of which might not have been bowl-eligible in the event that they hadn’t crushed the Tide? Most Alabama followers don’t even assume their staff had an excellent 12 months.
Left mind or proper mind?
How a lot did rallying round SMU need to do with the Mustangs’ story — a four-decade climb again from the NCAA dying penalty — greater than their resume? It positive would have felt terrible to maintain them out of the Playoff after they misplaced the ACC Championship Recreation on what’s going to go down as one of many biggest, clutchest kicks within the historical past of school soccer by Clemson’s Nolan Hauser.
“When the announcement occurred, truthfully, I acquired emotional, simply because I’m so completely happy for our children,” SMU coach Rhett Lashlee stated on ESPN. “They’ve labored so onerous. They’ve received 22 video games within the final two years. They laid all of it on the road final night time. We misplaced heartbreaking on the finish to a fantastic opponent.”
The Mustangs put the committee in a tough place and uncovered a obvious flaw within the system, including to the explanations the CFP must put off its weekly in-season rankings through the season’s ultimate month.
A lot speak heading into convention championship weekend was about how a lot a staff must be penalized for shedding a title recreation. The committee’s reply was resounding: not a lot. Texas, Penn State and SMU all misplaced their convention title video games. All had been very aggressive. None dropped greater than two spots from final week’s rankings.
The rankings present is simply that: a present. Content material that helps get folks speaking concerning the Playoff in November. There may be worth to that. It’s comprehensible that the convention commissioners who run the CFP would wish to management the method as an alternative of letting followers use the AP High 25 to take a position about what the Playoff race appears like down the stretch.
“I do consider it’s good for us to launch our rating, as a result of our rating is on the market and competes with two others, the AP and the coaches,” committee chairman Warde Manuel stated. “So I believe it’s necessary, since they launch a weekly rating, that on the applicable time within the season … that we launch how we’re considering so individuals are not stunned in analyzing and making an attempt to determine how the committee is considering issues.”
The chairman has a speaking level that the committee begins every week with a clean sheet of paper when it begins rating groups.
However Manuel additionally stated final week that groups not taking part in on championship weekend had been completed being evaluated. They may transfer round primarily based on the motion of different groups that had been taking part in for league titles, however the order of groups resembling Alabama, Miami, South Carolina, and so forth., was set.
Saban identified the issue with SMU and Alabama was SMU coming into the weekend forward within the first place, and perhaps he’s proper. SMU ought to have been taking part in its manner into the sector as an alternative of taking part in its manner out within the ACC Championship Recreation, he stated.
“Enjoying in (the SEC), and I performed on this convention for over 20 years, and when it’s important to go play Tennessee, then it’s important to go play LSU, then that staff that you simply play subsequent, now you is perhaps extra susceptible to,” Saban stated.
Saban, Greg Sankey, the SEC and Alabama don’t make for probably the most sympathetic victims, nor ought to they be seen that manner.
Defending all of them seems like demanding that the spoiled child who appears to have all of the toys additionally will get a pony — or on this case, the Ponies’ spot within the Playoff.
However it’s onerous to not admit that once you crunch the numbers, they’ve some extent.
(Picture: Todd Kirkland / Getty Photos)
