Bob Iger, CEO of Disney (L), and Brian Roberts, CEO of Comcast (R).
Getty Photographs
Ho, ho, ho! It is a CNBC vacation custom: Nameless media executives make their 2025 business predictions.
In honor of the 12 days of Christmas, we offer you 12 predictions from among the strongest media and leisure executives on this planet, weighing in on the situation of anonymity to allow them to communicate candidly about their visions of the 12 months forward. After which, as a result of now we have vacation cheer, we offer you a bonus one. A baker’s dozen!
Wanting again at 2024’s predictions, they had been not so good as earlier years. However there have been some hits, or partial hits.
Whereas Warner Bros. Discovery’s Max, Netflix and Disney did not all staff up for the primary important streaming bundle, as one participant predicted final 12 months, Max and Disney did be part of forces. TV broadcast station teams continued to choose off regional sports activities rights, as one other govt anticipated. RedBird Capital did not fairly purchase Paramount International, however the personal fairness agency was a part of the consortium with Skydance that introduced a merger with the corporate in July.
As for different 2024 predictions, Nelson Peltz and Jay Rasulo didn’t win their activist marketing campaign to affix the Disney board; Disney CEO Bob Iger didn’t renew his contract past 2026, purchase Candle Media or title Dana Walden his successor; and NBA media rights didn’t go to Disney, Warner Bros. Discovery and Apple — they went to Disney, NBCUniversal and Amazon.
Oh, and yet another miss: Whereas Comcast did announce a by-product of most of its cable networks, it didn’t spin off NBCUniversal and merge it with Warner Bros. Discovery.
That is a pleasant segue to this 12 months’s predictions:
Govt 1: Comcast will purchase the studio and streaming property of Warner Bros. Discovery and merge them with NBCUniversal
Second time’s the allure! Warner Bros. Discovery is separating its linear property from the remainder of the corporate. Comcast is spinning out most of its cable networks. It has to imply one thing, proper?
Govt 2: Comcast will purchase Constitution and spin off the remainder of NBCUniversal
That is proper, Comcast might have SpinCo 1 and SpinCo 2! This govt predicts Comcast will take a look at the Donald Trump regulatory administration and attempt to mix the 2 largest U.S. cable firms, 10 years after dropping its bid to purchase Time Warner Cable — which was once the second-largest U.S. cable supplier earlier than it was acquired by Constitution — after concluding the federal government would block the deal.
Govt 3: Fox will purchase most of Warner Bros. Discovery’s property
After promoting nearly all of its leisure property to Disney in 2019, Fox will shock the media world by once more gaining scale, buying HBO, the film studio, the Turner networks and the streaming property of Warner Bros. Discovery, based on this govt.
For what it is value, one other govt predicted Fox would promote, given the unknown future of the Murdoch household belief.
Govt 4: Dana Walden will go away Disney at year-end when she does not get the CEO job
Disney has already stated it plans to delay naming a brand new CEO till early 2026, so this prediction assumes the corporate will barely transfer up the announcement. Walden, Disney’s co-chairman of Disney Leisure, is the last word Hollywood insider who many view because the front-runner for the job. The board is taking its time vetting candidates after the handoff from Iger to Bob Chapek in 2020 didn’t go very properly.
Dana Walden, Ryan Murphy, Bob Iger, and FX Networks Chairman John Landgraf, from left, attend the premiere of Murphy’s restricted collection “Feud: Capote vs. The Swans,” on Jan. 23, 2024.
Credit score: Disney
Govt 5: Jeff Bezos will probably be bullied into promoting The Washington Put up after President Trump makes it clear his house firm, Blue Origin, will endure for his paper’s protection
Bezos has stated he’s devoted to The Put up’s future, however the paper has been engulfed in drama this 12 months. Maybe 2025 is the 12 months Bezos decides he has had sufficient further complications.
Govt 6: A number of TV station teams will promote out of monetary hardship
Firms corresponding to EW Scripps, Tegna and Sinclair Broadcast have watched their shares stoop lately as conventional pay-TV valuations have declined with wire chopping. Executives at these firms are hopeful a brand new Trump administration will clear the way in which for extra consolidation. A number of will promote out of desperation, both to keep away from chapter or to achieve wanted scale, guesses this govt.
Govt 7: The Trump administration relaxes TV station possession guidelines, resulting in CBS, ABC, NBC and Fox shopping for up their very own affiliate stations
The same thought because the final one, however this govt took the bolder step of claiming the acquirers of the stations would be the broadcast networks themselves.
The Paramount International headquarters in New York on Aug. 27, 2024.
Yuki Iwamura | Bloomberg | Getty Photographs
Govt 8: Paramount International will purchase Lionsgate after it spins off from Starz
If Paramount International will get the federal government’s approval to merge with Skydance Media subsequent 12 months, its new management will seemingly look to rework the enterprise. One large transfer the corporate will make is to accumulate Lionsgate studio after it spins off from Starz at first of subsequent 12 months, stated this govt.
Govt 9: A giant tech firm will purchase online game maker Digital Arts
After flirting with each Comcast and Disney in previous years, Digital Arts will promote in 2025 to an enormous tech firm corresponding to Netflix, Alphabet, Apple or Amazon, stated this govt. That might observe within the footsteps of Microsoft buying Activision in 2023.
Govt 10: The M&A hype across the business will probably be wildly overblown, and there will probably be far fewer offers than anybody thinks
You are all mistaken! This govt stated M&A predictions typically will not come true as a result of consolidation will not present any actual fixes to an business in transition.
Govt 11: Paramount+, Peacock and Max get bundled collectively
Executives at Paramount International, NBCUniversal and Warner Bros. Discovery are all on document about needing to contemplate choices for streaming consolidation. What if there was a bundle that featured all three companies? This govt guesses the three companies will probably be offered collectively, both by a tough bundle on one platform or offered collectively at a reduction.
Govt 12: The sports activities streaming service Venu won’t ever launch, and Fox will license its sports activities content material to ESPN’s streaming service
Venu, a three way partnership owned by Disney, Fox and Warner Bros. Discovery, was introduced to nice fanfare earlier this 12 months. However an antitrust lawsuit filed by Fubo has stalled the service’s launch. In the meantime, ESPN will debut its “flagship” streaming service by the autumn of 2025. That may trigger the businesses to desert Venu, predicts this govt.
Govt 13: Kathy Kennedy will depart Lucasfilm
Kennedy has been the president of Disney’s Lucasfilm since 2012 and is now in her 70s. It might be time for a brand new chief of the Star Wars franchise.
Could the power be with you. Let’s examine what 2025 brings. Completely satisfied holidays!
Disclosure: Comcast owns NBCUniversal, the mum or dad firm of CNBC.
