The Vikings shocked the NFL. Right here’s how insiders would clear up the Darnold dilemma: Sando’s Choose Six

The following two weeks will reveal a lot about what the long run holds for the Minnesota Vikings and Sam Darnold.

On this Week 16 Sunday, within the moments after Darnold maneuvered via the Seattle Seahawks’ go rush to ship the successful 39-yard landing strike to Justin Jefferson, these looming video games towards the 10-4 Inexperienced Bay Packers and 13-2 Detroit Lions might wait.

“Sam Darnold will likely be a Viking subsequent 12 months except he bombs within the playoffs,” learn the textual content from a veteran NFL participant agent.

This impromptu dialog rapidly grew to incorporate NFL coaches and executives because the Vikings notched their eighth consecutive victory, 27-24, in working their document to an unbelievable 13-2.

Solely the 1999 Kurt Warner-led St. Louis Rams have exceeded expectations via 15 video games to a better diploma than these Vikings over the previous 36 seasons, in line with historic Vegas preseason win totals.

These Rams, like these Vikings, had misplaced their franchise quarterback to a season-ending knee damage in preseason. They later traded their starter, Trent Inexperienced, after Warner led them to Tremendous Bowl glory.

The Vikings usually are not there but, however how they proceed with Darnold — who’s on a one-year contract — and injured rookie first-round choose J.J. McCarthy received somewhat extra fascinating after Darnold sliced that fourth-quarter go via Seattle’s protection a half-tick earlier than go rusher Dre’Mont Jones blasted him.

This Darnold to Jefferson connection is just too clear.

📺: #MINvsSEA on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/xHhVDimIM2

— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024

The Choose Six column shares ideas and concepts from the agent, personnel and training worlds in handicapping the place the most important shock story of the season goes from right here. The complete menu:

• Sorting via Vikings’ dynamics
• Not open-heart surgical procedure for Mahomes
• How frightened ought to Steelers be?
• Rams: Most bodily crew in division
• Lions’ accidents merely unhealthy luck?
• 2-minute drill: Penix’s sturdy debut

1. The Vikings aren’t simply essentially the most shocking crew this season. They’re among the many most shocking groups of the previous 36 seasons. That can have implications for his or her QB (and their head coach).

The Vikings have already exceeded their Vegas preseason win whole (6.5) by 6.5. That’s tied for the second-best differential amongst 1,711 groups via 15 video games since 1989, in line with Professional Soccer Reference.

A number of different groups within the prime 10 over this 36-year interval additionally loved quarterback awakenings, generally resulting in dilemmas.

Past the 1999 Rams, there have been the 2004 San Diego Chargers, who received a breakout season from Drew Brees and caught with him one other 12 months, regardless of having used a top-five choose to accumulate Philip Rivers in 2004. There have been standout rookies on the record, from 2004 Ben Roethlisberger to 2008 Matt Ryan, plus a 1999 Peyton Manning in his second season.

The 1998 Vikings with Randall Cunningham are there. They drafted Daunte Culpepper within the 1999 first spherical, transferring on from Cunningham a 12 months later.

Cunningham was turning 36. Darnold, who’s scheduled to hit free company in March, turns 28 in June. His 32 landing passes rank fifth within the league. He ranks fourth in passer ranking (105.4) behind Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff and Joe Burrow. His 45 sacks taken explains why he ranks decrease (14th) in EPA per go play. He’s tied with Patrick Mahomes for fifth in NFL MVP odds (+10000), per BetMGM.

Towards that backdrop, we choose up the dialog with league insiders.

Exec No. 1: “This season has proved Sam wants Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, (T.J.) Hockenson, one of many grittiest offensive strains and a prime again in Aaron Jones. If you’re Minnesota, you wave goodbye to Sam, want him luck and hope he indicators for $50 million with some crew that thinks they’re a quarterback away, however doesn’t have all these issues Minnesota has. You get the premium comp choose, you discovered your subsequent Sam Darnold in Daniel Jones and you have already got your draft choose (McCarthy) able to go. That’s what a wise group does.”

Exec No. 2: “I agree, apart from the Daniel Jones piece. Jones isn’t an actual choice.”

Exec No. 3: “What if they simply franchise-tagged Darnold, which then retains McCarthy in play for the long run?”

Agent: “They will afford that. What they will’t afford is popping it over to a rookie coming off a season-ending damage. The one Darnold caveat at this level is the playoffs.”

May there be a compromise resolution?

The 2011 49ers (7.5 preseason Vegas win whole) went 13-3 and reached the NFC Championship Recreation with a reborn Alex Smith behind middle. They’d used a 2011 second-round choose on Colin Kaepernick however had been in no rush to play him. Smith, then 27, had bonded with new coach Jim Harbaugh after struggling below totally different coaches for years. He wished to remain, however the 49ers weren’t inquisitive about a market-setting extension.

San Francisco let Smith take a look at the market at a time when Peyton Manning was essentially the most coveted free agent in years (and Harbaugh met with Manning covertly earlier than the QB signed with Denver). Smith didn’t discover what he was in search of elsewhere. He re-signed with the 49ers on a take care of the No. 20 annual common amongst quarterbacks, received harm halfway via the following season, watched Kaepernick begin within the Tremendous Bowl and was quickly traded to Kansas Metropolis.

Exec No. 2: “To get a compromise deal from Darnold, the Vikings should be keen to let him hit the market.”

Agent: “That’s the very last thing Minnesota ought to do. Too many groups want QBs.”

Exec No. 2: “It’s actually not that scary. Some groups are selecting excessive and can draft QBs. Some received’t be capable of afford it. Tennessee could possibly be attention-grabbing.”

Coach: “If I’m Darnold and the Vikings transfer on from me, no matter Brock Purdy needs from the 49ers, I would like much less. If he says to San Francisco, ‘I’ll be your beginning quarterback for $15 million a 12 months or no matter and Brock Purdy is asking for $45 million, how does San Francisco sit there and say Brock Purdy is the man they’re going with?”

Exec No. 2: “What’s the distinction between Darnold and Baker Mayfield? That ought to be instructive for his market.”

Mayfield re-signed with Tampa Bay for $33 million per 12 months, which ranks 18th amongst quarterback averages. He knew the Buccaneers didn’t have his alternative lined up. He knew Tampa Bay was inquisitive about re-signing him. Darnold’s market might undergo if the Vikings like McCarthy sufficient to maneuver ahead with the Michigan product, which was all the time their plan anyway.

What’s the necessities for this Coach of The 12 months factor once more? Asking for a good friend

— J.J. McCarthy (@jjmccarthy09) December 23, 2024

There are different fascinating implications for this breakout Vikings season. Coach Kevin O’Connell has no contract past the 2025 season. His star is rising with each profitable begin from Darnold. He’ll doubtless drive no matter quarterback choice the Vikings make. He solely figures to achieve affect throughout the group if he continues to stack the victories. He’s already the primary coach in Vikings historical past with two 13-win seasons.

However first, the playoffs. Minnesota can safe the highest seed within the NFC and the convention’s solely bye by successful its last two video games towards Inexperienced Bay (at house) and Detroit (on the highway). The Athletic’s projection mannequin places the Vikings’ possibilities at 28 %, behind the Lions (66 %) and forward of the Eagles (6 %).

After all, that very same mannequin projected a 7-10 document for the Vikings getting into the season, with a 17 % shot on the playoffs and a lower than 1 % chance of securing the NFC’s prime seed.

That was then. That is now.

We opened this dialogue with a have a look at the groups since 1989 that outperformed their preseason expectations by the widest margins thus far in a season. We now circle again to see how these groups fared within the playoffs.

Six of those excessive overachievers had been 13-2 or higher, similar to the present Vikings. Three reached the Tremendous Bowl (the 1999 Rams received it, whereas the 1998 Falcons and 2015 Panthers fell brief). The 2004 Steelers and (gulp) 1998 Vikings reached convention title video games. Solely the 1999 Colts and 2004 Chargers did not advance within the playoffs.

Fairly good firm, all issues thought-about.

2. Patrick Mahomes was not coming off open-heart surgical procedure, however let’s not miss the message.

Mahomes’ efficiency towards Houston recalled the time within the playoffs after the 2017 season when Tom Brady led New England previous Jacksonville after struggling a lacerated throwing hand in follow.

That New England recreation, full with a fourth-quarter comeback from a 10-point deficit, produced a traditional postgame alternate between reporters and Patriots coach Invoice Belichick.

“Invoice, did something have to vary game-plan-wise due to Brady’s hand?” one reporter requested.

Belichick stared and mentioned nothing.

“Not that I’m conscious of,” he lastly answered.

Invoice Belichick on Tom Brady: “He is a tricky man, everyone knows that. However we’re not speaking about open coronary heart surgical procedure right here” pic.twitter.com/omGoydmIgy

— Sports activities Illustrated (@SInow) January 22, 2018

Belichick was then requested to touch upon Brady’s resourcefulness.

“Look, Tom did an important job and he’s a tricky man,” Belichick mentioned. “Everyone knows that. All proper. However we’re not speaking about open-heart surgical procedure right here.”

Some may need taken the feedback to be a slap at Brady, however the technique was extra prone to normalize taking part in nicely regardless of accidents.

That’s the place the Mahomes parallel is available in. He’s normalizing a typical each coach hopes each participant will uphold.

“It’s so not in style to put in writing about how powerful Mahomes is, when that’s the most excellent half about his recreation,” an exec from one other crew mentioned. “We need to naysay and speak about how (Travis) Kelce is slowing and they don’t seem to be as explosive. Mahomes is on the market taking part in when two-thirds of the quarterbacks wouldn’t, and 90 % of the wideouts wouldn’t. TV reveals a picture of his foot: He has like 17 layers of tape on it.”

Mahomes, who didn’t end the sport towards Cleveland final week after struggling the damage proven on this video, rushed for 27 yards and a landing on the Chiefs’ first possession towards Houston, the second-most yards on a gap drive in his profession. Reid went additional than Belichick would have in acknowledging the feat, even when Mahomes, like Brady, was not coming off open-heart surgical procedure.

“He spoils the canine out of us there as a result of he’s so powerful mentally and bodily,” Reid mentioned. “You simply get used to it. Most guys don’t come again from that like he did, however he set his thoughts to it and he jumped in that coaching room and stayed in there. Most guys don’t try this. It sends a message to the entire crew, and our guys are actual good with it. Our leaders are good in that method. They attempt to play via issues.”

3. The Steelers have misplaced three of their previous 5 and are slumping on offense. Right here’s why I’m not too frightened.

Steelers coach Mike Tomlin pointed to ineffective run protection and killer turnovers in explaining his crew’s 34-17 defeat to the Ravens. The prognosis appeared correct. It didn’t appear foreboding.

• The run protection shouldn’t be too regarding as a result of the Ravens are so good on the bottom.

Excluding kneeldown performs, Baltimore and Philadelphia are the one groups to hurry for at the very least 100 yards in each recreation this season. The Ravens and Eagles are two of 9 groups since 2000 to hit that mark within the first 15 video games of a season, becoming a member of a listing that additionally contains the 2019, 2020 and 2023 Ravens.

• The 2 killer turnovers Tomlin talked about value the Steelers 12.0 EPA, accounting for a lot of the last rating differential. The fumble Russell Wilson misplaced after a 19-yard scramble to the Baltimore 4-yard line got here with the rating tied within the second quarter. The choose six Wilson threw early within the fourth doubled the Ravens’ result in 14 factors.

These had the texture of one-off performs, however this was additionally the third consecutive recreation Pittsburgh completed with -10.0 EPA or worse on offense. The Steelers haven’t had an extended streak inside a season since 2003, per TruMedia.

Wasn’t this offense imagined to be higher with Wilson changing Justin Fields?

The Steelers’ method for successful — play good protection, run the ball, defend the ball and hit explosive downfield performs within the passing recreation — appears damaged with No. 1 receiver George Pickens sidelined for the previous three video games. Pittsburgh is 8-1 this season when Pickens has at the very least 50 yards, which is common manufacturing for a beginning receiver. The Steelers are 2-4 in any other case.

Wilson’s numbers with and with out Pickens on the sector appear putting.

Wilson’s EPA per play splits with and with out Pickens widen additional when eradicating drives that resulted in fumbles and/or interceptions. This means the numbers within the chart don’t merely mirror a few pricey turnover performs that occurred when Pickens was not obtainable.

How rapidly and the way nicely Pickens returns from his hamstring damage — Tomlin has left the door open for him to play Wednesday towards the Chiefs — seems to be the important thing variable for Wilson and the Steelers.

4. The Rams have recast themselves as a bodily soccer crew. That’s their edge within the NFC West.

The Rams are 8-2 of their previous 10 video games and in agency management of the NFC West after beating the New York Jets 19-9 and watching the Seahawks lose to the Vikings.

Not fairly two weeks in the past, after the Rams outlasted the San Francisco 49ers in an unpleasant slog performed in wet circumstances, an govt from one other crew made an statement: The Rams had surpassed the 49ers as essentially the most bodily crew within the NFC West. Accidents to Trent Williams and another 49ers contributed to the change, however not as a lot because the overhaul Sean McVay’s crew has been implementing over the previous couple of seasons.

🚨 Kevin Dotson coming via 🚨 pic.twitter.com/JmWA35Rm5S

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) December 13, 2024

The Athletic’s Jourdan Rodrigue detailed schematic modifications the Rams have made in evolving their run recreation away from zone ideas to a extra bodily, attacking type. Including offensive linemen within the mildew of Kevin Dotson and Steve Avila has facilitated the change. Puka Nacua is among the NFL’s extra bodily receivers. Working again Kyren Williams is sort of a boxer who punches above his weight class.

“I give the Rams credit score as a result of they had been mushy they usually knew it, they usually recognized a pair issues, and now they’ve turn into a grittier crew than the 49ers,” the exec mentioned.

The Rams have gone below middle greater than every other crew within the NFC West. They’re extra run-oriented than any crew within the division (48 % go on early downs within the first 28 minutes of video games, earlier than time remaining and rating differential exert extra affect on playcalling). They use the bottom price of five-man go protections within the division. All of these items mirror an orientation.

Including 2024 draft picks Jared Verse and Braden Fiske to the defensive entrance seven has affected that facet of the ball as nicely.

“You have a look at how Detroit wins on the road of scrimmage, how Minnesota wins on the road of scrimmage, how Inexperienced Bay wins on the road of scrimmage,” a coach from a Rams opponent mentioned. “They’re much in the identical vein, the place Verse is having a Defensive Rookie of the 12 months kind season, and Fiske is within the combine as nicely. They’re a bodily crew on protection and the offensive line is now wholesome, so it’s extra bodily too.”

5. The Detroit Lions have suffered extra accidents than every other crew within the league. Will they belief their course of?

Nearly six years in the past, after the San Francisco 49ers grew pissed off with accidents and restoration instances, the crew fired its coach and power coach, then introduced in a vice chairman above these roles.

Forty-one gamers had landed on the 49ers’ injured reserve record over the earlier two seasons. That 20.5 common per 12 months is about the identical because the 21.5 common for the 49ers since then, per Professional Soccer Reference.

One potential takeaway: Groups really feel powerless when accidents mount, so they modify what they will management, with out affecting what occurs subsequent.

The Lions have had 26 gamers on injured reserve this season, counting gamers positioned on IR throughout camp. They’d 21 gamers on IR getting into Week 16, which didn’t depend working again David Montgomery, whose knee damage might sideline him via the playoffs. The 22 gamers Detroit had on IR or listed as “out” getting into Week 16 was a league excessive.

Variety of gamers on IR/PUP/OUT for every #NFL crew. pic.twitter.com/QSJjur1Oak

— Tyler Webb (@tylermwebb) December 18, 2024

Are the Lions doing one thing fallacious? The reply seems to be no, after reviewing their accidents on video with a coach skilled in such evaluation.

We didn’t assessment accidents to Ennis Rakestraw Jr., John Cominsky, Michael Badgley or Netane Muti as a result of these occurred in practices, so video was not obtainable.

Of the 17 different gamers on IR not too long ago, solely defensive lineman David Bada suffered the form of non-contact damage that, if it had been to happen in giant numbers, tends to set off alarms. In 5 circumstances, the coach reviewing these performs on video thought the injured participant might have used higher method to cut back damage danger.

Whereas 14 of the 17 Lions gamers injured in video games had been harm on synthetic turf — together with 4 throughout a preseason go to to the New York Giants, whose turf has come below criticism — taking part in surfaces didn’t seem pivotal.

We positioned the 17 accidents into the next buckets:

• Non-contact (1): Bada, launched Saturday with an damage settlement, suffered a torn Achilles at MetLife Stadium after turning and working at low pace.

• Knee accidents, good method (2): offensive deal with Connor Galvin, who was blocking towards the Giants when different gamers fell into his legs; and defensive deal with Mekhi Wingo, whose foot skidded on the Lions’ house turf towards Chicago whereas he was engaged with one other very giant man.

• Knee/leg accidents, questionable method (4): defensive deal with Alim McNeil, who jumped at an angle whereas trying to hit Payments quarterback Josh Allen’s arm and landed awkwardly; linebacker Derrick Barnes, who took a tough hit to the legs from Arizona tight finish Tip Reiman (the coach faulted the strategies of each gamers, with Barnes failing to acknowledge cues that Reiman was blocking low); linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez, who was holding in protection when he turned and was harm; and cornerback Khalil Dorsey, injured whereas colliding with a Payments participant and his personal teammate, Ezekiel Turner, after not seeing both.

• Higher-body accidents, questionable method (1): defensive deal with Kyle Peko suffered a pectoral damage whereas reaching as an alternative of constant to run his toes towards his goal.

• Different accidents suffered throughout collisions, often at excessive pace (9): Ifeatu Melifonwu (ankle), Kalif Raymond (foot), Aidan Hutchinson (leg), Alex Anzalone (arm), Antoine Inexperienced (concussion), Carlton Davis (jaw), Jalen Reeves-Maybin (neck), Marcus Davenport (triceps) and Nate Lynn (shoulder).

Fourteen of the 17 gamers come from the protection. Age doesn’t seem key. The Lions entered Week 16 with the NFL’s fourth-oldest offense and third-youngest protection, weighted for enjoying time. The 17 injured gamers common 26 years previous. 9 are youthful than 25. Three — Raymond (30), Anzalone (30) and Peko (31) — are 30 or older.

Will the Lions really feel compelled to do one thing? Will they belief their processes, the best way coach Dan Campbell has mentioned he’ll do together with his fourth-down decision-making, no matter outcomes?

6. Two-minute drill: Michael Penix Jr. had a awful passer ranking in his debut begin for the Falcons, however don’t be fooled.

The second-quarter go from Falcons rookie Michael Penix to tight finish Kyle Pitts ought to have produced a third-down conversion within the pink zone. As a substitute, Pitts did not safe the ball, which flew ahead from the 3-yard line into the tip zone, the place the Giants’ Cor’Dale Flott intercepted it.

Juggled and picked off by the Giants on the aim line!

📺: #NYGvsATL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/PdRfXIGHCa

— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024

The weird play contributed to a deceptive stat line for Penix in his first begin because the Falcons benched Kirk Cousins: 18 of 27 for 202 yards with no touchdowns, the one interception and a 73.4 passer ranking.

The Falcons ran away with a 34-7 victory anyway as a result of their protection collected two choose sixes off Drew Lock, and partly as a result of Penix sustained drives together with his finest work on third down.

Penix’s prime 5 EPA performs had been all conversions on third-and-6 or longer. He threw the ball previous the first-down marker on 4 of the 5 performs, splitting these completions between Drake London and Darnell Mooney. Even with the unfortunate interception, the Falcons loved a 50 % success price on third-down passes, matching their highest price of the season.

• Lions having enjoyable: With unhealthy information on the damage entrance threatening to turn into the Lions’ narrative in latest weeks, the comical trick-play idea Detroit unleashed on the Chicago Bears confirmed this crew remains to be prioritizing enjoyable.

Labored like a attraction 😉

JG on the fake-fumble trick play TD to Sam LaPorta pic.twitter.com/wau30iGvEM

— Detroit Lions (@Lions) December 22, 2024

Quarterback Jared Goff tripped on function as he retreated from middle, pretending to fumble. Working again Jahmyr Gibbs dove to the bottom as if making an attempt to recuperate a unfastened ball. A number of teammates had been heard shouting, “Fumble!” Chicago’s defenders moved ahead. Goff gathered himself and threw a landing go to an open Sam LaPorta.

The ole stumblebum 🤣#ProBowlVote | @JaredGoff16 pic.twitter.com/zdHiS7M2Hy

— Detroit Lions (@Lions) December 22, 2024

The funniest half was that the Lions in all probability didn’t even want the pretend motion for this play to succeed. Nevertheless it was heaps extra enjoyable this manner.

• Colts meet Lone Star Dietz: In 1933, when the Lone Star Dietz-coached Boston Redskins confronted the New York Giants at Fenway Park, a crowd listed at 15,000 witnessed the house crew rush for 420 yards whereas finishing solely two passes in a 21-20 victory.

That was the primary time in league historical past {that a} crew rushed for at the very least 335 yards whereas finishing seven or fewer passes in an NFL recreation, per Professional Soccer Reference. It could occur seven extra instances within the Thirties, seven instances within the Nineteen Forties and thrice within the Fifties earlier than a shift towards the trendy passing recreation made such video games exceedingly uncommon. There have been none within the Sixties, three within the Seventies and, earlier than the Indianapolis Colts took the sector Sunday, none since Cincinnati (2000) and Baltimore (2003) pulled off the old-school feat greater than 20 years in the past.

The Colts turned again the calendar of their 38-30 victory over the Tennessee Titans in Week 16. With Jonathan Taylor dashing for 218 of the Colts’ 335 yards on the bottom, and with Anthony Richardson finishing 7 of 11 passes for 131 yards, Indy prevailed. It received 70 yards dashing from Richardson and picked off Titans quarterback Mason Rudolph thrice.

• About these in-season modifications: The New York Jets are 2-8 and rank thirty second in defensive EPA per play since firing defensive-minded coach Robert Saleh. The Chicago Bears are 0-3 and rank thirty second in defensive EPA per play since firing their defensive-minded coach, Matt Eberflus. The opposite crew to fireplace its (defensive-minded) coach throughout the season, New Orleans, has gone 3-2 since parting with Dennis Allen, albeit with victories towards two groups which have subsequently benched their quarterbacks (Atlanta, Cleveland) and the Giants, who benched and reduce their QB beforehand.

• New Commanders karma: What would have appeared much less doubtless for Washington? Holding alive D.C. stadium plans amid the specter of a authorities shutdown, or beating the beforehand 12-2 Philadelphia Eagles in a recreation that includes 5 Commanders turnovers and a 13-point deficit getting into the fourth quarter?

Washington pulled off the parlay with its tenth win below first-year coach Dan Quinn, solely the fourth time in 33 seasons this franchise has cracked double-digit victories in a season. Mike Shanahan, Joe Gibbs and Norv Turner every managed the feat as soon as throughout Dan Snyder’s possession. It’s a brand new day now.

JAMISONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

📺 #PHIvsWAS FOX pic.twitter.com/k718liTMwK

— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) December 22, 2024

Washington’s capacity to stack these moments virtually from the beginning of the season, first in that memorable 38-33 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3, feels restorative even when the Commanders had been sloppy and possibly would have misplaced this recreation Sunday if Philly hadn’t performed most of it with out injured quarterback Jalen Hurts.

One week after Philadelphia held Pittsburgh to five:50 of second-half possession time, the Eagles restricted Washington’s time with the ball to 16 seconds of the third quarter. Philly took a 27-14 lead into the fourth and have become solely the sixteenth crew since 2000 (and the primary Eagles crew) to blow a 13-point lead via three quarters and lose. Groups are actually 230-16-2 (.931) since 2000 when main by precisely 13 getting into the fourth quarter.

Jayden Daniels’ 5 landing passes, together with the game-winner to Jamison Crowder, reinforces his spot as a prohibitive favourite for Offensive Rookie of the 12 months.

• MVP race: Talking of honors, let’s shut with an up to date have a look at our MVP odds-to-EPA chart. Lamar Jackson closed floor on Josh Allen after tossing three landing passes for the Ravens of their victory over the Steelers. Allen’s Buffalo Payments barely beat New England on a day when Allen averaged 5.3 yards per try, his second-lowest in a recreation this season. Each quarterbacks received touchdowns from their groups’ defenses and 100-yard dashing video games from their prime backs to assist them win.

(Photograph: Christopher Mast / Getty Photos)