The 2024, the oil market skilled notable fluctuations influenced by international financial developments and geopolitical occasions. Early within the yr, costs remained comparatively steady, with Brent crude averaging round US$80 per barrel.
Nevertheless, because the yr progressed, a number of elements contributed to elevated volatility. A big slowdown in China’s financial system led to decreased demand development, prompting the Worldwide Vitality Company (IEA) to revise its international oil demand development estimate for 2024 right down to 910,000 barrels per day.
Concurrently, international oil manufacturing noticed modest will increase. The IEA additionally reported an increase of 0.6 million barrels per day in international liquid fuels manufacturing for 2024, with non-OPEC+ international locations contributing considerably to this uptick.
Geopolitical tensions, notably involving main oil-producing nations, added layers of complexity to the market. Regardless of these challenges, the market displayed resilience, with costs fluctuating inside a comparatively slim vary. By mid-December, crude oil costs had risen to roughly US$74 per barrel, marking a six-week excessive.
Wanting forward, forecasts recommend that oil costs might common round $75 per barrel in 2025, with potential declines in subsequent years.
In opposition to that backdrop, the 5 top-performing oil and fuel shares on the TSX and TSXV have seen share value development. All year-to-date efficiency and share value information was obtained on December 19, 2024, utilizing TradingView’s inventory screener, and the oil and fuel corporations listed all had market caps above C$10 million at the moment.
1. Sintana Vitality (TSXV:SEI)
12 months-to-date acquire: 234.85 p.c
Market cap: C$410.61 million
Share value: C$1.11
Sintana Vitality, an oil and fuel exploration and improvement firm, operates throughout 5 extremely potential onshore and offshore petroleum exploration licenses in Namibia and Colombia.
The corporate noticed tailwinds early within the yr after releasing updates on exploration in Namibia’s Orange Basin. It made two vital mild oil discoveries in January at petroleum exploration license 83.
February noticed extra share value development when Sintana was listed on the TSX Enterprise 50 because the prime power performer.
In June, the corporate finalized its acquisition of a 49 p.c curiosity in Giraffe Vitality Investments as per an settlement dated April 24. Giraffe Vitality holds a non-operating 33 p.c stake in petroleum exploration license 79 in Namibia, and the remaining 67 p.c of the license is owned by operator Nationwide Petroleum of Namibia.
Shares of Sintana marked a year-to-date excessive on June 11 to commerce for C$1.42.
In late August, the corporate launched its monetary outcomes for Q2 2024, which noticed an general web lack of C$2.7 million primarily pushed by normal and administrative bills.
Lately Sintana introduced a brand new exploration and appraisal marketing campaign in Namibia’s Orange Basin, focusing on blocks 2813A and 2814B underneath petroleum exploration license 83.
2. Arrow Exploration (TSXV:AXL)
12 months-to-date acquire: 26.56 p.c
Market cap: C$117.2 million
Share value: C$0.40
Arrow Exploration, via its wholly owned subsidiary Carrao Vitality, operates in Colombia with a deal with creating its portfolio of oil property within the nation. The corporate’s technique is to focus on the enlargement of oil manufacturing in key basins, together with the Llanos Basin, Center Magdalena Valley and Putumayo Basin.
Arrow Exploration holds excessive working pursuits in its property, that are predominantly linked to Brent pricing.
In June, Arrow introduced that it had efficiently introduced the primary of 4 deliberate Ubaque horizontal wells into manufacturing, reporting that the Carrizales Norte B pad (CNB HZ-1) was producing 3,150 barrels of oil per day (bpd) gross, with 1,575 bpd web to Arrow, and has a water lower of lower than 1 p.c.
This information despatched Arrow’s share value considerably upward registering a year-to-date excessive of C$0.60 on August 25.
The corporate launched its Q2 outcomes on August 29, reporting complete oil and fuel income of C$15.1 million for the interval, up 47 p.c year-on-year. Its present manufacturing is 5,000 barrels of oil equal per day.
In late September, after bringing one other two wells on-line, Arrow introduced that CNB HZ-5, its fourth horizontal effectively on the Carrizales Norte B pad in Colombia, is now producing over 2,700 barrels of oil per day gross. The corporate expects sturdy long-term efficiency.
For Q3 2024 Arrow reported its “strongest quarter” pushed by document manufacturing, income, EBITDA, and money move. The corporate efficiently drilled three horizontal improvement wells within the Carrizales Norte discipline, boosting operational momentum.
Arrow additionally posted C$21.3 million in oil and pure fuel income, web of royalties, a 53 p.c improve in comparison with Q3 2023.
3. Condor Energies (TSX:CDR)
12 months-to-date acquire: 23.24 p.c
Market cap: C$114.68 million
Share value: C$1.75
Condor Energies concentrates on the exploration, improvement and manufacturing of pure fuel in Turkey, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The corporate is at present constructing Central Asia’s inaugural liquefied pure fuel (LNG) facility.
In late January, Condor secured a pure fuel allocation from the Kazakhstan authorities for its maiden modular LNG manufacturing facility. The fuel allocation will likely be instrumental in liquefying feed fuel to provide as much as 350 metric tons per day of LNG, equal to about 210,000 gallons per day, the corporate mentioned.
Condor’s shares reached a year-to-date excessive in February to commerce for C$2.76.
In March, the power firm started a production-enhancement operation for eight pure fuel condensate fields in Uzbekistan. Fuel output will likely be directed to the home market via state entity agreements. Condor has agreed to cowl mission prices and obtain a share of the generated revenues. The corporate launched a multi-well workover program on the fields in June.
In July, Condor signed its first LNG framework settlement for producing and using LNG to energy rail locomotives in Kazakhstan.
In mid-August, Condor launched its Q2 report, highlighting that Uzbekistan manufacturing averaged 10,052 barrels of oil equal per day (boe/d) for the interval, consisting of 59.03 million cubic toes per day and 213 barrels of oil per day of condensate. Q2 gross sales of fuel and condensate from Uzbekistan totaled C$18.95 million.
Condor just lately secured a second pure fuel allocation from Kazakhstan’s state authority for its deliberate LNG facility close to the Kuryk Port on the Caspian Sea. The allocation will gas a low-carbon LNG manufacturing web site able to producing the power equal of 565,000 liters of diesel per day, in accordance to a September announcement.
The corporate’s Q3 outcomes highlighted constructive outcomes for its fuel discipline enhancement mission in Uzbekistan, with manufacturing averaging 10,010 boe/d and gross sales reaching C$19 million. Outcomes from the multi-well workover program have exceeded expectations,
Condor reported, rising fuel move charges by 100% to 300 p.c.
Earlier this month the corporate closed a brokered financing elevating C$19.4 million.
4. Imperial Oil (TSX:IMO)
12 months-to-date acquire: 18.62 p.c
Market cap: C$48.47 billion
Share value: C$90.34
Calgary-based Imperial Oil is a distinguished Canadian power firm concerned within the exploration, manufacturing, refining and advertising of petroleum merchandise. With a historical past spanning over 140 years, Imperial operates various property throughout Canada, together with oil sands, typical crude oil and pure fuel property.
On February 2, Imperial launched its This fall 2023 outcomes, highlighting upstream manufacturing of 452,000 barrels of oil equal per day, “marking its highest stage in over three many years.”
Moreover, Imperial initiated steam injection at Chilly Lake Grand Rapids, pioneering the business’s first deployment of solvent-assisted SAGD expertise. Downstream operations carried out strongly, with refinery capability utilization reaching 94 p.c following the profitable completion of the most important deliberate turnaround on the Sarnia web site.
On this yr’s Q2 outcomes, Imperial reported quarterly web revenue of C$1.13 billion together with working cashflow of C$1.63 billion, or C$1.51 billion when excluding working capital. In response to the corporate, its upstream manufacturing reached 404,000 gross boe/d, its highest second quarter manufacturing in over 30 years. The Kearl mission matched its highest-ever second quarter manufacturing at 255,000 gross boe/d, with Imperial’s share being 181,000 barrels. Chilly Lake additionally carried out strongly, with manufacturing of 147,000 bpd.
Through the interval, the corporate achieved first oil at Grand Rapids and renewed its annual share repurchase program, aiming to purchase again as much as 5 p.c of its excellent widespread shares.
On November 1, Imperial introduced a quarterly dividend of C$0.60 per share, payable on January 1, 2025, to shareholders of document as of December 3, 2024. This matches its earlier quarterly dividend.
Imperial noticed its shares attain a year-to-date of C$108.03 on November 21, 2024.
In mid-December the corporate launched its 2025 steerage. In it Brad Corson, chairman, president and chief govt officer laid out Imperial’s plans for the yr forward.
“Our 2025 plan builds on our momentum and positions the corporate to realize even stronger working efficiency with increased volumes and decrease unit money prices at Kearl and Chilly Lake,” he mentioned. “Within the Downstream, a lighter turnaround schedule helps increased refinery throughput year-over-year, and start-up of the Strathcona Renewable Diesel mission is predicted to extend product gross sales.”
5. Athabasca Oil (TSX:ATH)
12 months-to-date acquire: 15.68 p.c
Market cap: C$2.55 billion
Share value: C$4.87
Athabasca Oil is targeted on creating thermal and light-weight oil property inside Alberta’s Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. The corporate has established a considerable land base with high-quality assets. Its mild oil operations are managed via its non-public subsidiary, Duvernay Vitality, during which the corporate holds a 70 p.c fairness curiosity.
On the finish of July, Athabasca launched its Q2 outcomes, reporting common Q2 manufacturing of 37,621 boe/d, leading to a rise in its annual manufacturing steerage to 36,000 to 37,000 boe/d. The corporate additionally achieved document adjusted funds move of C$166 million and cashflow from working actions of C$135 million.
Athabasca Oil’s Q3 outcomes, launched in late October, underscored a powerful third quarter with common manufacturing of 38,909 boe/d, an 8 p.c year-over-year improve. Adjusted funds move reached C$164 million, marking a 25 p.c improve per share.
In early December Athabasca Oil introduced its 2025 price range, specializing in enhancing money move per share and committing 100% of free money move to shareholder returns via share buybacks.
The corporate additionally plans to take a position roughly C$335 million in capital expenditures, aiming for a mean manufacturing of 37,500 to 39,500 barrels of oil equal per day, with an exit price of round 41,000 boe/d.
Athabasca shares rose to a year-to-date excessive in August after they have been buying and selling for C$5.66.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, maintain no direct funding curiosity in any firm talked about on this article.
