A downed Shahed-136 drone, marked “Ы 11934,” has surfaced in a placing picture, captured by Anadolu Company and distributed through Getty Pictures. This drone was a part of Russia’s ongoing assault on Kharkiv on December 21, 2024, confirming that the Kremlin’s drone marketing campaign is pushing ahead relentlessly.
The numbers don’t lie—if this drone’s serial marking is a part of the continual sequence, Russia’s Shahed manufacturing has now hit an alarming milestone of 10,000 models in 2024 alone. Again in February, over 2,600 drones bearing the “Ы” marking had already been reported, signaling a large uptick in output because the first sightings of the “Ы” collection in July 2023.
What’s much more regarding is the tempo at which Russia has shifted from utilizing Iranian-made “M” collection Shaheds to manufacturing its personal variants. The looks of “Okay” and “KB” drones in 2023 marked the start of home manufacturing, however these newer fashions are exhausting to trace now, indicating a shift in technique or provide chain challenges.
Russia’s Alabuga facility has gone into overdrive, pumping out drones at a pace that’s leaving army analysts scrambling to maintain up. What was as soon as a 1,000-per-month tempo has now practically doubled, reaching an alarming price of two,000 models per 30 days by the tip of 2024.
The surge in manufacturing begs the query: How did Russia handle such a leap? Whereas the reply stays murky, one factor is evident—the Kremlin has discovered a solution to flip its Shahed program right into a high-output battle machine.
And it’s not nearly numbers—Russia’s Alabuga complicated hit a milestone of 6,000 Shahed drones produced a full 12 months forward of schedule, an achievement initially set for 2025.
This fast acceleration in manufacturing underscores the stakes, with Ukraine’s Army Intelligence [GUR MOU] now concentrating on important manufacturing hubs, like their current profitable strike on a key drone element warehouse. Each hit on these services is a big blow to Russian capabilities.
Firstly of 2024, the hacker group Prana shocked the world by leaking a collection of paperwork and emails, claiming to have stolen data from the Iranian firm Sahara Thunder.
These paperwork shed new gentle on Russia’s army capabilities, revealing that Moscow is on observe to supply as much as 10,000 Shahed-136 drones yearly, based mostly on applied sciences acquired from Iran. Whereas the authenticity of the information can’t be absolutely confirmed, the content material suggests critical army ambition from Russia.
The paperwork, leaked in early February, present that Russian representatives from the Alabuga industrial complicated traveled to Iran for negotiations geared toward buying key applied sciences for mass-producing the Shahed-136. In August 2023, the Washington Put up revealed that Alabuga performed a central position in constructing the preliminary 6,000 drones, however the brand new knowledge factors to a plan to considerably ramp up manufacturing to 10,000 drones yearly.
Among the many leaked paperwork, there are a number of particulars confirming suspicions that these “Dolphin 636” boats should not abnormal vessels, however drones. The paperwork point out phrases like “avionics,” “jet-assisted takeoff,” and “anti-jamming methods,” that are typical applied sciences utilized in UAVs.
Even a slideshow branded with Alabuga reveals particulars describing parts attribute of army drones, comparable to fuselage and elevons, which might hardly be wanted for boats.
If these “boats” are certainly the Shahed-136, they are going to change into a key a part of Russia’s technique for UAV strikes in Ukraine. Producing 10,000 drones yearly is a large aim and would require vital investments in manufacturing capabilities and know-how.
Because of this Russia just isn’t solely increasing its drone military but additionally paying a better worth for these weapons, that are getting used with nice depth on the entrance strains. If mass manufacturing plans are certainly in place, it is going to have critical strategic penalties for future army operations within the area.
What appeared like a “suspicious” hack by an Iranian-linked group and doubts concerning the authenticity of leaked paperwork have shortly morphed right into a grim actuality—and for Ukraine, a direct menace. Kyiv is now taking the existence of Russian drone manufacturing services as a critical and imminent hazard.
On December 23, Ukraine’s Essential Intelligence Directorate confirmed {that a} warehouse in Russia’s Alabuga Particular Financial Zone—housing essential parts for Iranian-designed Shahed-136 assault drones—was destroyed.
In keeping with the intelligence report, the fireplace worn out 65 drone fuselages together with engines, navigation methods, and thermal cameras meant for the meeting of 400 Shahed-136 drones.
The Ukrainian company estimated the harm at $16 million, calling it “one other strike in opposition to Russia’s military-industrial complicated,” underscoring the continued concentrating on of Russian drone capabilities.
BulgarianMilitary.com has been unable to independently confirm the claims, however earlier strikes on Kazan, the capital of Tatarstan, on December 21 brought on vital harm to a number of buildings. Nevertheless, no reviews from native authorities indicated fires or disruptions in Alabuga throughout or after the assault on December 23.
Ukraine’s long-range drones had already focused the Alabuga facility in April 2024, together with different websites in Elabuga and Nizhnekamsk. Native reviews steered minimal harm and no main disruptions.
Nevertheless, a supply from Ukraine’s army intelligence confirmed to native media that this most up-to-date assault was a focused operation by Ukrainian forces, marking a big escalation of their technique to disrupt Russia’s drone manufacturing capabilities.
The Shahed-136 drones and their modification Geran-2 in Russian service, are one-way assault UAVs designed for long-range strikes on important infrastructure and army targets.
Their major position within the ongoing battle has been as a low-cost, high-impact weapon, permitting Russia to strike Ukrainian cities, energy grids, and protection installations with relative impunity.
With a variety of as much as 2,500 kilometers, these drones can hit targets deep inside enemy territory, complicating air protection operations.
These drones are geared up with a mixture of GPS and inertial navigation methods, enabling them to fly exact, pre-programmed routes.
This makes them extremely efficient at placing high-value targets with minimal deviation. Moreover, Shahed-136 is outfitted with thermal imaging cameras, permitting for precision concentrating on in low-visibility circumstances, together with evening operations.
Whereas the Shahed-136’s design originated in Iran, Russia has considerably ramped up its home manufacturing of drones, counting on parts sourced each regionally and from Iran.
As of current reviews, Russia has built-in its personal electronics and steering methods into the drones, bettering reliability and functionality. This adaptation has allowed for larger-scale deployment on the battlefield.
A key function of the Shahed-136 is its digital warfare functionality. The drones are geared up with countermeasures to jam enemy radar and air protection methods, offering a tactical benefit in evading interception.
Their small measurement and low radar cross-section make them tough to detect, additional rising their effectiveness in opposition to superior protection methods.
By incorporating Shahed-136 drones into multi-layered assault methods, Russia has been capable of overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. These drones are sometimes utilized in tandem with different missile and UAV strikes, complicating countermeasures and maximizing the possibilities of hitting important targets.
Because the Russian manufacturing capability will increase, these drones are more likely to stay a key factor in Russia’s aerial fight technique, presenting a rising problem for Ukraine’s protection efforts.
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