Ray Kurzweil, the futurist and Director of Engineering at Google, predicts that solar energy will develop at an exponential price all through the twenty first century.
In his essay “The Legislation of Accelerating Returns”, Ray believes the expansion of photo voltaic will resemble Moore’s Legislation: the doubling of pc functionality each two years.
Throughout an interview in 2011, Ray defined:
“Photo voltaic panels are coming down dramatically in value per watt. And on account of that, the whole quantity of photo voltaic vitality is rising, not linearly, however exponentially. It’s doubling each 2 years and has been for 20 years. And once more, it’s a really clean curve. There’s all these arguments, subsidies and political battles and corporations going bankrupt, they’re elevating billions of {dollars}, however behind all that chaos is that this very clean development.”
Ray Kurzweil, Google
Picture supply: Intel
That is an thrilling thought. In 2011, photo voltaic PV (which means “photovoltaic” – the kind of panel used to generate electrical energy, versus thermal panels that generate warmth) generated 60.6TWh or 0.27% of world electrical energy era. Based mostly on Ray’s easy quantity crunching, we might, in idea, generate sufficient vitality to fulfill in the present day’s total world’s electrical energy demand with photo voltaic by 2029. In actuality, we wouldn’t need to rely solely on photo voltaic, and progress within the early years is prone to be faster than in a while – however it will be fascinating if solar energy has doubled each two years this century, wouldn’t it?
So, is photo voltaic PV nonetheless seeing exponential progress six years on from Ray’s prediction?
International progress of photo voltaic since 2000 – in numbers
In the beginning of the twenty first century, international put in photo voltaic PV capability paled compared to in the present day’s figures. Estimates put the whole put in PV capability in 2000 at round 1.4GW. To place this determine in perspective, China alone put in ten instances this quantity of photo voltaic PV in 2014.
Supply (years 2000–2013): International Market Outlook for Photovoltaics 2014-2018 (EPIA, 2014), Supply (12 months 2014): International Market Outlook for Photo voltaic Energy 2015-2019 (SSE, 2014), Renewables International Standing Report 2017 (REN21, 2017)
For the following seven years, from 2000 to 2007, the world noticed gradual however spectacular double-digit progress of between 20%-40% year-on-year (YOY).
It’s honest to say that 2008 to 2012 was a increase within the international photo voltaic PV market – the speed of recent installations virtually doubled to between 50% and 75% YOY.
This has been adopted by a interval between 2013 and 2014 the place progress charges have returned to round a 30%-40% vary. On the finish of 2017, it’s estimated that round 102GW has been added to international PV capability since 2016, bringing the worldwide complete to 405GW.
The place has the expansion been coming from?
Germany was the photo voltaic PV chief up till 2014 with 40GW of photo voltaic (equal to round 20 coal-fired energy stations). Then, the German vitality program Energiewende was wound down, permitting China and Japan to overhaul, with the USA shut behind.
China had as a lot photo voltaic as Germany (40GW) in 2015 after which virtually doubled this determine once more in a single 12 months in 2016. The newest figures for the tip of 2017 present that China has continued to construct solar energy at an astonishing price, including 53GW in 2017. This places them at a complete of 131GW of photo voltaic, virtually 4 instances the UK’s common complete electrical energy demand. A lot for China not pulling their weight, Donald.
India additionally had an enormous 12 months in 2017. In 2016, India had a complete of 9GW of photo voltaic. Nonetheless, in 2017 they added one other 9GW, doubling their put in capability and bringing them up the highest 10 world rankings.
Japan achieved a steep improve following the introduction of a beneficiant feed-in-tariff in 2012. Japan’s photo voltaic market grew quick after this, however cooled off barely between 2015 and 2017.
The USA has additionally managed to develop at a powerful price since 2012. A US file of 14.7GW of photo voltaic was added in 2016, however this has dropped right down to 10.6GW added 2017. Italy’s progress was spectacular for a small nation however has remained largely flat since monetary incentives had been eliminated in 2013.
The rest of the highest 10 is led by the UK, adopted by France, Australia and Spain all with between 5.6GW to 12.7GW of put in capability.
Germany and Italy had been accountable for 72% of all progress within the increase years of 2008-2012. Progress is concentrated in China, Japan, the USA and more and more India, in the present day.
How has photo voltaic in comparison with Moore’s Legislation?
To measure the expansion of photo voltaic over fifteen years, we will use the compound annual progress price (CAGR), which has similarities to the best way you’d calculate your common curiosity on a checking account over a time frame.
For the expansion of something to double each two years and comply with Moore’s Legislation, a minimal CAGR of 41.42% is required. The CAGR of world photo voltaic PV installations from 2000-2017 was 42.34%, which means it has achieved virtually precisely that!
On common photo voltaic has been doubling each two years because the starting of the twenty first century, and up to now, Ray Kurzweil’s prediction has been correct. Let’s hope Ray continues to be proper over the following 15 years. Or a minimum of not far off…
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