Very like the southeastern portion of the U.S. frets over the potential of devastating hurricanes, inventory merchants and traders brace for their very own monetary hurricane this time of yr. Final week, we noticed the NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) tumble, dropping practically 6% throughout a holiday-shortened buying and selling week. This is not uncommon. The NDX has misplaced floor throughout September in 9 of the previous 12 years:
Have a look at these common month-to-month returns for every calendar month over the previous 12 years – for the reason that secular bull market started in 2013. 9 of the 12 calendar months common double digits good points, with July (+4.4%), November (+3.9%), and Could (+2.7%) topping the listing. December (-0.1%) is the one different month displaying a damaging common return, although it is basically breakeven. That leaves September, which has averaged transferring decrease by 2.4% over the previous 12 years, because the worst performer amongst all calendar months.
As August ends, it jogs my memory of Metallica’s hit, “Enter Sandman”. Bear in mind the road, “exit mild, enter evening”? August is the sunshine (a minimum of on a relative foundation) and September is the evening. As quickly because the calendar flipped, sellers appeared and have been able to rumble. To date, the bulls have not put up a lot of a struggle.
There’s a silver lining, nonetheless. We simply want to flee September first. Here is a seasonality chart of the S&P 500:
This covers the previous 12 years, or everything of the present secular bull market, which, in my view, started the day that the S&P 500 cleared its 2000 and 2007 tops. That was on April 10, 2013 and the S&P 500 by no means seemed again. Research these common month-to-month returns. You’ll be able to clearly see a big drop off in August and particularly September, proper? Then, like a water faucet being turned from chilly to sizzling, the market heats up massive time in This autumn. By merely including the month-to-month returns in every calendar quarter, you possibly can see the next historic efficiency of the S&P 500 by calendar quarter:
- Q1 (January, February, March): +2.2%
- Q2 (April, Could, June): +3.4%
- Q3 (July, August, September): +1.2%
- This autumn (October, November, December): +5.9%
Does this assure us glorious market returns in This autumn 2024? After all not. However it’s ONE bullish historic sign that you ought to be conscious of, particularly if we start to see bottoming indicators kind technically. Absolutely the BEST interval of the yr to be invested within the S&P 500 from an extended perspective is from the October twenty seventh shut by the next January 18th shut. The S&P 500 has ended that interval greater that it started in every of the final 7 years and in 14 of the final 15 years. And if we stretch it additional, that upcoming interval has risen 38 of the final 41 years. It isn’t a slam dunk, however the odds of the interval ending greater positive do favor the bulls by a WIDE margin.
Let me add to this bullish historical past with yet another truth. Since 1982, this October twenty seventh near January 18th shut has seen the S&P 500 climb greater than 10% 8 instances, greater than 9% 12 instances, and greater than 8% 16 instances! But we have solely seen 3 declines over that very same interval. The % misplaced in these 3 years are 8.98% (2016), 13.68% (2008), and a couple of.29% (2001). I will take my bullish probabilities when the September/October low kinds.
I talked about potential ranges on the S&P 500 when it lastly reaches backside over the following handful of weeks. My weekly market recap video for the week ended September sixth, “The place Is The Possible S&P 500 Backside?”, is prepared to your viewing pleasure. Please “Like” the video and “Subscribe” to our channel, if you have not already. Be at liberty to go away me a remark along with your ideas on the S&P 500 as effectively.
Additionally, on Monday, I will be breaking down a chart that appears like it’s heading decrease in a giant, massive method in our FREE EB Digest publication. If you would like to see the article and you are not already a free subscriber, CLICK HERE to register. There isn’t any bank card required and it’s possible you’ll unsubscribe at any time.
Blissful buying and selling!
Tom
Tom Bowley is the Chief Market Strategist of EarningsBeats.com, an organization offering a analysis and academic platform for each funding professionals and particular person traders. Tom writes a complete Each day Market Report (DMR), offering steerage to EB.com members on daily basis that the inventory market is open. Tom has contributed technical experience right here at StockCharts.com since 2006 and has a elementary background in public accounting as effectively, mixing a novel talent set to method the U.S. inventory market.
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