Although Democrats face a formidable U.S. Senate map in 2024, they’re presently forward in three key races.
In CBS Information’ first ballot of the race for Michigan’s open Senate seat, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is main former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers by seven factors. In the meantime, Sens. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin are forward of their reelection bids by seven factors and eight factors, respectively.
The races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin look just like our preliminary learn within the spring, with the principle distinction being that there are fewer undecided voters now. In each states, the share who aren’t certain of their Senate vote has decreased by 4 factors, with Democratic and Republican candidates in every race gaining kind of equally.
Whereas the presidential race presently seems to be very shut in all three states, the Democratic Senate candidates are benefiting from simply sufficient ticket splitting to edge forward. Casey and Baldwin presently lead amongst independents, who’re kind of evenly divided between Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and GOP nominee Donald Trump within the presidential race. And whereas Republican voters are backing their social gathering nominees in giant numbers in all three states, GOP Senate candidates are nonetheless operating behind Trump amongst them. That each explains their present deficits and in addition suggests there’s room to develop.
These estimates are snapshots of the race, not predictions. With eight weeks to go till Election Day, there may be nonetheless time for issues to shift. One good cause we would count on the races to tighten is that undecided voters profile as Republican-leaning. They’re backing Trump for president in pretty giant numbers, and their previous votes and partisanship recommend they’re nearer to the GOP. If these voters ended up selecting the identical social gathering for Senate as they do for president, the Democrats’ leads in all three races would shrink to throughout the margin of error.
These CBS Information/YouGov surveys have been carried out between September 3-6, 2024. They’re primarily based on consultant samples of 1,086 registered voters in Michigan, 1,085 in Pennsylvania, and 958 in Wisconsin. Margins of error for registered voters: Michigan +/- 3.7 factors, Pennsylvania +/- 3.5 factors, and Wisconsin +/- 4.0 factors.
Toplines:
