A mixture of highly effective photo voltaic occasions has prompted the Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric (NOAA) House Climate Prediction Middle (SWPC) to concern a geomagnetic storm warning for at the moment (Sept. 16).
That is nice information for these wishing to see the northern lights the expected geomagnetic storm might spark auroras deep into mid-latitudes (round 50°) and as far south as California, Missouri and Oregon.
This wrongdoer? On this case, there are literally two.
The primary is a big plume of plasma and magnetic area often called a coronal mass ejection (CME) that was launched from the solar throughout a colossal X-class photo voltaic flare — probably the most highly effective class of photo voltaic flare — on Sept. 14. The X4.5 photo voltaic flare peaked at 11:29 a.m. EDT (1529 GMT) and was the fifth largest photo voltaic flare of the present photo voltaic cycle.
The CME launched in the course of the X-flare is at present barreling towards Earth and is predicted to arrive at the moment (Sept. 16). CMEs carry electrically charged atoms often called ions. Once they collide with Earth’s magnetosphere, they will set off geomagnetic storms. Throughout these storms, the ions work together with gases in Earth’s environment, emitting power as mild. It’s this mild that we view because the northern lights, or the aurora borealis, within the Northern Hemisphere, and the southern lights, or the aurora australis, within the Southern Hemisphere.
The second wrongdoer is a coronal gap on the Earth-facing aspect of the solar. Coronal holes seem as darkish areas in the solar‘s corona (outer environment). They’ve an open, unipolar magnetic area line construction which primarily permits the photo voltaic wind to flee extra readily into area. This stream of comparatively quick photo voltaic wind and the affect of the incoming CME have resulted within the G3 geomagnetic storm watch being issued.
NOAA classifies geomagnetic storms utilizing a G-scale that measures their depth, starting from G1 for minor storms to G5 for probably the most excessive ones. Highly effective G3 circumstances are predicted for at the moment (Sept. 16) which implies we may very well be in for fairly the aurora present as earlier “minor” G1 circumstances on July 29/30 nonetheless managed to spark dazzling northern lights throughout the U.S. and Canada.
When will the geomagnetic storm happen?
Present forecasts predict G3 geomagnetic storm circumstances will arrive on Sept. 16, although the precise timings are unsure.
Just like Earth’s climate, area climate is unpredictable and difficult to forecast. Whereas geomagnetic storm warnings of this degree are unusual, they will nonetheless typically fizzle to nothing.
“NOAA & NASA predictions point out arrival anytime from 0600 UTC to 1800 UTC September 16. Doubtless the storm will arrive on the late aspect, presumably deflected additional east by a quick photo voltaic wind stream,” area climate physicist Tamitha Skov wrote in a put up on X.
The massive #solarstorm launched in the course of the X4.5-flare is on its method to Earth. NOAA & NASA predictions point out arrival anytime from 0600 UTC to 1800 UTC September 16. Doubtless the storm will arrive on the late aspect, presumably deflected additional east by a quick photo voltaic wind stream. My… pic.twitter.com/ifT4UZt6jUSeptember 16, 2024
In case you use X, I like to recommend testing area climate forecaster Sara Housseal‘s account for normal “CME arrival” updates and normal area climate data.
“CME Replace: We have reached the purpose the place we might count on the CME to [arrive] at any time, based mostly on mannequin outputs, however there’s nonetheless no signal that an arrival is imminent,” Houseeal wrote in a put up on X this morning (Sept. 16).
“Now the enjoyable begins of will it arrive later than anticipated or under no circumstances? Keep tuned!” Housseal continued.
CME Replace: We have reached the purpose the place we might count on the CME to arrival at any time, based mostly on mannequin outputs, however there’s nonetheless no signal that an arrival is imminent. Usually a notable rise in low power protons, which get pushed out forward of the CME entrance, could be a signal… pic.twitter.com/PDqNU0LbT6September 16, 2024
If you wish to maintain a watchful eye on the area climate circumstances and know when (and the place) to look out for auroras, I like to recommend downloading an area climate app that may let you understand the expected circumstances based mostly in your location. I take advantage of an app known as “My Aurora Forecast & Alerts” obtainable on iOS and Android. However any related app ought to do the job. I then couple this with the House Climate Reside app obtainable on iOS and Android. This app is nice because it provides you extra of an perception into whether or not the area climate circumstances are wanting promising for aurora exercise.
