NFL QB inventory report, Week 3: Kyler Murray surges into high 10; Sam Darnold too low?

Two video games into the 2024 NFL season, there’s been some essential reshuffling with the QB rankings.

The preliminary rankings had been primarily a composite take a look at the best way key evaluators considered the 32 beginning quarterbacks. Now, there’s extra to stability.

There are a number of key concerns when checking out the rankings, they usually’re not all weighted equally. First, how does the QB’s profession resume stack up? How excessive is his ceiling vs. how low is his ground? Somebody like Patrick Mahomes, after all, can afford a nasty efficiency or a substandard stretch and preserve his perch atop the rankings.

Second, how has he performed by way of two weeks relative to that profession resume? Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (extra on him later) is off to an excellent begin, however there’s sufficient purpose to imagine this isn’t a fluke as a result of he’s performed at a near-MVP degree earlier than.

Third, how are the circumstances round him, whether or not it’s the QB’s well being or the well being and expertise round him with the offensive line and ability gamers? Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford has taken the largest fall from the highest 10, partly as a result of he hasn’t performed nice however largely as a result of his workforce has been decimated by accidents.

Fourth, in some circumstances when it’s a very shut name, which QB would nearly all of groups take if they’d the selection?

Once more, these components could be weighted in a different way with sure gamers. Rookies and veterans with decrease flooring have extra to show. Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow, who’re each surprisingly 0-2, have gotten the advantage of the doubt that they’ll be superb before later.

Now, to essentially the most spectacular riser of the younger season:

Hail Murray

Murray jumped 10 spots this week, by far the largest transfer from any QB early within the season. He produced an ideal passer ranking Sunday towards the Rams, a workforce many across the league believed can be within the playoffs this season, and Murray had the Cardinals near pulling off a serious upset in Buffalo within the opener.

In at the moment’s @AZCardinals victory, Kyler Murray (@K1) grew to become the 2nd participant in @NFL historical past with 250+ passing yards, 50+ dashing yards and a 158.3 passer ranking – the very best attainable mark – in a single recreation.

He joins Ken Anderson, who completed the feat on Nov. 3, 1974. pic.twitter.com/R4riWfygVd

— NFL345 (@NFL345) September 15, 2024

The No. 1 decide within the 2019 draft has been excellent by way of two video games, finishing 73.1 % of his passes for 428 yards, 4 touchdowns, no interceptions and a 122.9 ranking. He’s additionally rushed for 116 yards.

Murray was respectable final season when he returned from a torn ACL. Now absolutely wholesome with a whole offseason in Drew Petzing’s extremely regarded offense, Murray may be on the verge of the most effective season of his profession. And keep in mind, he was within the MVP dialog at instances in 2020 and 2021.

Murray does have a historical past of beginning sturdy and fading down the stretch, however there’s purpose to imagine that is extra sustainable. Former head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s offense had been criticized by rival executives for stalling on account of an absence of evolution because the season progressed. Murray’s play suffered in consequence. A rising variety of accidents additionally impacted him late in seasons, in order that’s actually nonetheless going to be a priority.

Earlier than the season, quite a few coaches and executives raved about Petzing’s scheme in 2023. It’s one of many key causes the Cardinals had been chosen within the preseason because the workforce probably to overachieve in a ballot by The Athletic. Many predicted Petzing would get head teaching interviews this offseason.

The Cardinals are higher this season. The extent of Murray’s play will decide simply how a lot of a risk they might be in doubtlessly contending for a playoff spot.

Darnold too low?

Sam Darnold might lay declare to the largest gripe within the rankings.

The 27-year-old has accomplished 72 % of his passes for 476 yards, 4 touchdowns, two interceptions and a 111.8 passer ranking in a pair of wins. He additionally simply disposed of the 49ers, which is one thing his former workforce did not do with Aaron Rodgers in Week 1.

JUSTIN JEFFERSON 97 YARD TUDDY!!!!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/0PJs9mheCK

— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024

Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell runs a QB-friendly offense, and vast receiver Justin Jefferson makes everybody round him higher at their jobs — 20.4 % of Darnold’s passing yards this season occurred on one throw to Jefferson on Sunday, in spite of everything. Darnold seems to be arrange for achievement greater than another level in his profession, and it wouldn’t be too troublesome to argue Darnold is off to a greater begin than a number of the quarterbacks who’re ranked forward of him.

So why the low rating? It’s nonetheless too small of a pattern for a QB who has proven flashes like this at varied factors in his profession, notably throughout a stable 3-0 begin with the Panthers in 2021 earlier than all of it got here crashing down.

If Darnold sustains this tempo, he’ll transfer up the rankings.

Funds ballers

How concerning the NFC South?

Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr are off to excellent begins for his or her undefeated groups, doubtlessly setting the scene for an epic Week 6 collision in New Orleans that would form the division race the remainder of the best way.

The Saints aggressively pursued Carr in 2023 after Plans A-Z within the post-Drew Brees period fell flat, whereas the Bucs added Mayfield throughout the identical offseason with none ensures he’d be a starter. Mayfield delivered a powerful first season in Tampa to earn a long-coveted contract, but Carr struggled a lot of the 12 months earlier than lighting it up the previous couple of weeks.

And so they’re each doing it on offers value lower than $40 million yearly. Carr is tied for the Seventeenth-biggest QB deal at $37.5 million per 12 months, whereas Mayfield ranks nineteenth at $33.3 million.

The Saints have distinctive cap administration philosophies, however Carr’s deal has undoubtedly aided their defensive investments. Mayfield’s deal allowed the Bucs to maintain a lot of homegrown stars, none extra invaluable than wideout Mike Evans.

It’s the kind of method that loads of groups would like to execute with quarterback contracts exploding across the league — 9 are actually on the books for greater than $50 million per 12 months. Pair a savvy quarterback with the best offensive coordinator/play caller, construct up the remainder of the roster and hope that depth is sufficient to overcome the extra vaunted QB dragons within the playoffs.

Mayfield seems to be much more comfy with Liam Coen at offensive coordinator. Carr, in the meantime, seems to be like a very totally different participant with OC Klint Kubiak, main an astounding 15 consecutive scoring drives to open the season.

Hassle in Jacksonville?

This was alleged to be the season Trevor Lawrence established himself as a top-10 quarterback. Possibly that also occurs, however it’s going to require a 180-degree turnaround.

If you happen to recall, we identified a definite line within the rankings initially of the season. Of the quarterbacks ranked Nos. 19-32 within the preliminary rankings, all however Anthony Richardson modified groups, head coaches or offensive coordinators/play-callers. There was a lot uncharted territory within the backside 14.

Lawrence now ranks No. 18. The Jaguars look disjointed on offense, persevering with to make errors and failing to search out consistency with the safety and run recreation. Lawrence has appeared hesitant, maybe unable to search out confidence amid the workforce’s total points. Then once more, franchise quarterbacks are anticipated to instill confidence among the many chaos.

A SWARMING SAFETY FOR ALEX WRIGHT 🙏#CLEvsJAX on CBS & NFL+ pic.twitter.com/XvJhBYz6eW

— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) September 15, 2024

The Jaguars have misplaced two video games by a complete of eight factors. The protection gave up 20 to the Dolphins and 18 to the Browns. There isn’t a soul in Jacksonville who wouldn’t count on their $55 million quarterback to ship a pair of wins to enhance that sort of defensive effort.

Then once more, they’d be 1-1 if Travis Etienne doesn’t fumble on the aim line in Miami. Or if Lawrence was in a position to ship within the fourth quarter towards the Browns the best way he did so many instances in 2022, the narrative is totally totally different.

That’s too many “ifs.” As an alternative, the Jaguars are winless and making ready for highway journeys to Buffalo and Houston. They’re getting ready to a worst-case state of affairs if they will’t pull off at the least one upset earlier than the schedule settles a bit.

Bryce to the bench

A half day after one other spectacular C.J. Stroud efficiency on the nationwide stage, the Panthers determined to bench Bryce Younger. The dichotomy is putting between the highest two picks of the 2023 NFL Draft.

The circumstances in Carolina weren’t conducive to success for any quarterback. It’s not like choosing Stroud at No. 1 would have solved the Panthers’ points on the offensive line or receiver, or wherever on protection.

It does, nonetheless, reinforce the opinion the Panthers shouldn’t have traded a lot capital to maneuver up for Younger, who was an imperfect prospect. Younger was largely considered as the most effective QB prospect, although some groups did certainly want Stroud and even Anthony Richardson. However that doesn’t imply Younger was a certain factor. If you happen to’re going to commerce two first-round picks — considered one of which grew to become the No. 1 total decide (Caleb Williams) in 2024 — two second-round picks and a No. 1 receiver, you higher know you’re getting a franchise quarterback.

The Panthers nonetheless can’t ensure that’s what they’ve in Younger, however the total roster building is extra guilty than something. Younger is hardly the one purpose the Panthers have been outscored, 108-13, over their final 4 video games.

Now, the Panthers have an much more sophisticated state of affairs on their palms. Younger has appeared fully out of kinds by way of two video games, and he’s taking part in with minimal confidence, which must be anticipated with a lot chaos round him. That confidence isn’t going to magically reappear after such a public benching.

Bryce Younger Benched. Why?…Movie Dont Lie.

He is fighting seeing the sphere & his footwork is NOT the place it must be. There are performs vast open.

All 22 QB Breakdown: Bryce Younger pic.twitter.com/g8aXfqMou6

— Chase Daniel (@ChaseDaniel) September 16, 2024

With 15 video games to go, it’s inconceivable to guess the place the Panthers go from right here. And with proprietor David Tepper’s unpredictable nature, who is aware of who’ll even be making the QB selections after the season? Normal supervisor Dan Morgan, who was the assistant GM and had a outstanding voice within the collaborative method to the Younger draft choice, goes to should reply to Tepper. Morgan is essentially the most highly effective determine nonetheless standing after Tepper cleaned home following the 2023 season.

Coach Dave Canales, who was employed to revive Younger, noticed sufficient of the QB after two video games. Canales’ predecessor, Frank Reich, was fired final season after 11 video games. These aren’t encouraging timelines from a big-picture standpoint.

One league government known as the Panthers’ state of affairs a “catastrophe.” One other mentioned the Panthers dedicated the cardinal sin of buying and selling up within the draft for an “outlier” of a prospect, hoping all the pieces would come collectively somewhat than discovering methods to intensify Younger’s higher qualities.

At this level, although, what’s performed is finished. The decide was made. The property are gone. And Younger is on the bench. If they will’t discover a manner out of this gap, the Panthers are earlier within the rebuild than anybody would have imagined even two weeks in the past.

It’s Tua’s choice

The general public’s requires Tua Tagovailoa to retire are rooted in good intentions. The Dolphins quarterback has now suffered three unsettling concussions on a nationwide stage, and we’re all significantly better educated on the mind damage’s long-term results than ever earlier than.

However let’s simply give Tagovailoa the grace to decide that he feels is in his personal greatest curiosity. He’s bought his medical workforce. The Dolphins have given him the right sources. He’s in excellent care, relative to the circumstances.

It’s virtually too straightforward to observe from afar and type the opinion that the 26-year-old ought to prioritize his long-term well being. And there’s completely nothing mistaken with that opinion.

It’s tougher, although, to place your self in Tagovailoa’s place and contemplate all the pieces else that’s gotten him up to now. He labored to get himself on the map in Hawaii, incomes a scholarship from Nick Saban at Alabama. He bided his time behind Jalen Hurts, delivered a comeback victory within the nationwide championship, labored to grow to be a first-round decide, overcame a number of accidents and tuned out a ton of criticism and distractions to land a four-year, $212.4 million contract. He’s already overcome extra adversity than most beginning quarterbacks, and it’s bought to be gut-wrenching to contemplate leaving all of it behind.

The purpose is that this must be an emotionally draining choice for Tagovailoa. If he continues taking part in, we should always at the least attempt to see it from his perspective.

(Picture of Kyler Murray: Christian Petersen / Getty Photos)