The highest tier is at all times unique territory when 50 NFL coaches and executives have their say in Quarterback Tiers every summer time.
That exclusivity has reached one other stage this yr.
Led by the incomparable Patrick Mahomes, solely three gamers achieved Tier 1 standing when balloting for the eleventh annual survey was completed. That’s the bottom quantity since 2016, however with a crop of youthful gamers rising, there’s a probably shiny future for the elite ranks.
The Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson reached new heights. The Inexperienced Bay Packers’ Jordan Love and the San Francisco 49ers’ Brock Purdy made large jumps. The Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud set a brand new normal for a second-year QB. You’ll be able to see the biggest risers and fallers within the graphic beneath.
The 2024 QB Tiers outcomes are right here, full with commentary from the 50 NFL coaches and executives who have been granted anonymity to share candid evaluations. The panel consisted of seven common managers, eight head coaches, 12 coordinators, 12 executives, eight assistant coaches and three concerned in teaching/analytics.
Every voter positioned 30 veteran quarterbacks into 5 tiers, from greatest (Tier 1) to worst (Tier 5). Quarterbacks have been then ranked by common vote and positioned into tiers based mostly on vote distribution, starting with Mahomes, whose 1.00 common vote mirrored his standing as the one unanimous Tier 1 choice. No QBs landed in Tier 5, though some acquired Tier 5 votes. The survey excludes rookies as a result of voters haven’t seen them play within the NFL.
QB Tiers ranges
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Tier 1
A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his crew every week. The crew wins due to him. He expertly handles pure-passing conditions. He has no actual holes in his recreation.
Voters have positioned Mahomes within the prime tier on 249 of 250 ballots over the previous 5 seasons, together with all 150 over the previous three.
“Is there a zero class (above Tier 1)?” a defensive coordinator requested.
What extra is there to say about Mahomes?
“Final yr, there was a lot adversity with the drops, the Kadarius Toney points, the dearth of men with the ability to uncover and separate,” an offensive coach mentioned. “You knew as a competitor he was pissed off. However I watched him simply battle and grind it out and never make excuses and dig in. I feel he’s a particularly robust human being. Lots of people may have been pissed and bitched. If that had occurred, the entire thing may have unraveled.”
If Tom Brady stays the GOAT, Mahomes is closing that hole.
“I do know individuals who have been taking Philly or San Francisco within the Tremendous Bowl,” a defensive coordinator mentioned. “Dude, they’re taking part in Mahomes. You are taking Mahomes. He’s like Brady when Brady was in his prime. You’ll be able to’t guess towards that dude as a result of he’s the perfect within the enterprise.”
An offensive coordinator had Mahomes as his solely Tier 1 QB this yr.
“The one participant to win massive with a nasty protection,” this coordinator mentioned.
The 2022 Chiefs gained the Tremendous Bowl whereas rating twenty ninth in mixed EPA on protection and particular groups. The 2019 and 2022 Chiefs had the worst mixed postseason EPA on protection and particular groups of any Tremendous Bowl winners since a minimum of 2000, per TruMedia.
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Ryan Kang / Getty Photographs
The 43 Tier 1 votes for Burrow are six fewer than he acquired final yr after his newest harm, which required surgical procedure on his throwing wrist, amplified sturdiness issues.
“You’re keen on every thing about him, however sooner or later, bodily, his physique goes to fail,” a defensive coach who has confronted Burrow a number of occasions mentioned.
Burrow’s confidence is one in every of his loveliest qualities.
“He’s a cool, calm, collected, assured model of Kirk Cousins,” one other coach mentioned. “He might need a bit higher arm energy, however the talent set may be very related, besides Burrow is just not an overthinker. He simply has this confidence that he’s proper, and he throws with that goal and that confidence, and usually, he’s proper.”
Accidents value Burrow six video games as a rookie (knee) and 7 final season (calf).
“He’s positively a 1,” a head coach mentioned. “He’s an correct, contact passer with anticipation, however they gotta watch out. He’s getting harm on his throwing arm. You might have accidents to your legs like he’s had, that may have an effect on your arm. I’m curious to see how the ball comes off his hand this yr.”
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Cooper Neill / Getty Photographs
Allen, like Burrow, landed in Tier 1 for a 3rd consecutive yr. He commanded 5 fewer Tier 1 votes this yr in comparison with final however remained solidly inside the prime group.
“For me, Mahomes and Josh Allen are the 2 guys proper now that individuals are probably the most afraid to play,” a head coach mentioned. “They don’t go in and say they’re as afraid to go play Joe Burrow. Possibly that’s simply from a playmaking standpoint. I feel Joe is nice, however these two (Mahomes and Allen) put groups on their backs and win.”
The price of Allen’s playmaking — 22 turnovers final season, second-most within the NFL behind Sam Howell — explains why 11 voters didn’t place him in Tier 1.
“The explanation I put him as a 2, I’m questioning if folks have caught as much as him a bit bit,” an offensive coach mentioned. “If he can’t lengthen the down, it’s arduous for him to remain on schedule and defend the soccer. Once you see guys throwing dangerous interceptions, why did they go there with the ball? Is it as a result of they don’t seem to be understanding what’s in entrance of them?”
Most voters felt Allen dealt with pure-pass conditions properly sufficient to hold his crew in crucial moments, separating him from gamers in Tier 2.
“He can move to win it, and he can simply say, ‘Screw it, I’m going to scramble at this time as a result of my passing sucks,’ and nonetheless win it,” one other voter mentioned.
Over the previous three seasons, Allen leads the NFL in mixed passing and speeding touchdowns with 128, 17 greater than Mahomes at No. 2. His 59 turnovers rank second to Trevor Lawrence (60).
“If he doesn’t flip the ball over, he’s going to make loads of performs to win the video games,” one other head coach mentioned. “I feel he’s a top-three or top-four man within the league.”
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Kathryn Riiley / Getty Photographs
Tier 2
A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his crew generally however not as constantly. He can deal with pure-passing conditions in doses and/or possesses different dimensions which are particular sufficient to raise him above Tier 3. He has a gap or two in his recreation.
Jackson surged to the brink of Tier 1 with extra top-tier votes this yr (23) than he commanded over the earlier three mixed (20).
“He’s a implausible dual-threat man, he’s explosive, he’s harmful,” an offensive coach mentioned. “This previous yr, with (new Ravens offensive coordinator Todd) Monken, I believed he took an enormous step and have become a passer. To me, it was so totally different from the earlier years.”
The road between being passer and expertly dealing with pure-pass conditions like Baltimore confronted whereas trailing Kansas Metropolis within the playoffs is what stored Jackson a number of votes away from becoming a member of Mahomes, Burrow and Allen within the prime group.
For some, Jackson transcends the standards.
“I simply suppose placing an MVP of this league in Tier 2 is being on some quarterback excessive horse of what we predict it’s presupposed to seem like,” a voter who positioned Jackson in Tier 1 mentioned.
Faring higher within the playoffs, the place he has a profession 75.7 passer score and a 2-4 document regardless of sturdy defensive help, may push Jackson excessive.
“He’s a 1 with limitations for me,” a defensive coordinator mentioned. “You’ll be able to win quite a lot of video games with him. Once you watched it towards Kansas Metropolis, he can’t move when he has to. That’s nonetheless true. However he’s nonetheless an exquisite soccer participant.”
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Stafford’s 1.64 common and No. 5 rating are each private bests in 11 years of Tiers voting.
“When folks put their prime 10 quarterbacks collectively, he’s at all times eight or 9, however he’s higher than anybody thinks,” a voter putting Stafford in Tier 1 mentioned. “So constant, so sturdy, reads defenses so properly, can do something along with his arm expertise. He’s the explanation that crew is so good.”
Voters lauded Stafford’s means to deal with pure-pass conditions.
“I are not looking for him to have the ball late,” a defensive coordinator mentioned.
A reworked contract provides Stafford extra money in 2024 whereas giving the Rams a simple out after the season, elevating questions on his future.
“The man delivers,” a GM mentioned. “He handles pure move in all probability in addition to anyone. He gained a Tremendous Bowl. He constantly brings his crew again. I’ve no drawback with a 1 on him.”
Some worry Stafford might be winding down bodily at 36. The Rams’ recommitment to the run recreation may assist him play longer.
“He’s at all times been an excellent participant,” a head coach mentioned. “However to unlock the Tremendous Bowl Matt Stafford, getting him with Sean (McVay) and placing him in a construction the place they’d a run recreation and had a protection was crucial.”
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Herbert fell from Tier 1 however remained the fifth-ranked quarterback for a 3rd consecutive yr. His 30-32 profession document with no playoff wins appears to be working towards him.
“Herbert might need the Matt Stafford profession the place they lastly play protection and run the ball and he has extra success as a participant,” a head coach mentioned. “He’s tremendous, tremendous, tremendous gifted. I don’t even know if that’s the proper factor, to place him in an offense the place they run the ball as a lot as they’re about to run it, as a result of he’s so gifted.”
The hole between Herbert’s apparent expertise and his crew’s on-field success is definitely defined. Over the previous three years, the Chargers rank tenth in offensive EPA, the half Herbert impacts, whereas rating thirty first in mixed EPA on protection and particular groups, the half past his management, per TruMedia.
“I might put him beneath Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford and Patrick Mahomes so far as what I see in a quarterback who can do something and every thing, not simply in a scheme,” a defensive coach mentioned. “I feel he’s a gamer. He can throw, he can run. I simply suppose they’ve requested him to throw the ball an excessive amount of.”
That figures to alter with Jim Harbaugh because the Chargers’ coach.
“Harbaugh will problem the aggressive stage, and Herbert will reply to that,” one other defensive coach mentioned. “The tradition is what’s going to assist Herbert elevate. Then we will see some issues in moments the place, OK, can this man actually try this? As a result of I’ve performed him earlier than when he didn’t do it in these conditions, and we weren’t that good.”
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Rodgers dropped into Tier 2 for the primary time in 11 Tiers appearances after struggling a torn Achilles tendon final season.
Some thought this was ridiculous.
“Had been the blokes that didn’t put Rodgers in Tier 1 from the 29 groups whose offenses could be higher with him as a substitute of their present QBs?” one voter protested.
Solely Mahomes, Burrow and Allen commanded extra Tier 1 votes than the 23 for Rodgers. However with seven votes in Tier 3 and two in Tier 4, Rodgers slipped from the elite ranks.
“Possibly he falls off,” an offensive coach putting Rodgers in Tier 1 mentioned. “I simply know the final time I noticed him play, he can carry it. I’m going off that.”
Not everybody thought Rodgers was taking part in so properly when he completed in Inexperienced Bay.
“You return and watch these first 4 performs earlier than he received harm, he didn’t look good,” a head coach putting Rodgers in Tier 3 mentioned. “He appears previous. If they’ll’t defend him they usually can’t run the soccer, it’ll be simply what you noticed late levels in Inexperienced Bay. He turned ineffective. I’m what he’s, not who he’s.”
A voter whose crew practiced towards the Jets final summer time mentioned he thought Rodgers appeared “fragile” and won’t final 5 video games this season. The Achilles harm and Rodgers’ age (he turns 41 in December) created uncertainty.
No participant in Tiers historical past has rated as excessive as Rodgers did this yr whereas getting votes in Tier 4.
“The grievance in Inexperienced Bay was he didn’t have the receiver assist he wanted as he received older,” one other voter mentioned. “You can’t say that now with what they’ve round him on the Jets. If we get a Rodgers yr the place the Jets are again in playoffs and successful playoff video games, that’s simply what occurs when you may have a Tier 1 quarterback.”
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Stroud surpassed Herbert (who was No. 10 in 2021) for the best Tiers debut coming off a rookie season.
“This man is a freaking baller,” an offensive assistant mentioned. “After we watch the model of play, there’s quite a lot of Joe Burrow when Joe is wholesome. The dude has balls.”
Stroud’s 1.82 common vote was the identical as Tom Brady’s coming off what turned Brady’s ultimate season.
“I feel he’s particular,” a head coach mentioned of Stroud. “He could make performs on rhythm, he can learn protection, he can get by way of progressions, he can manipulate coverages. He can create off-schedule quite a bit higher.”
An excessive amount of, too quickly?
“I’m positive some folks gave him a 1, however he’s gotta show it,” one other head coach mentioned. “The Baltimore (playoff) recreation when he needed to throw, he couldn’t do it. He must show he can do it in an enormous recreation towards actually good defenses (to develop into a 1).”
Voters gave credit score to the Texans’ offensive system beneath coordinator Bobby Slowik. Some referred to as Houston’s personnel underrated. They typically didn’t maintain these issues towards Stroud.
“I knew it immediately,” one voter mentioned. “I used to be watching him play at Baltimore in his first recreation ever. Within the first 15 performs, I used to be like, ’OK, they received a quarterback.’ I noticed him flicking his wrist, shifting within the pocket. You can simply see it.”
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Prescott matched his profession greatest for common vote (2.10) and rating (ninth) whereas making a fifth consecutive look in Tier 2.
“Dak can roll away from bed and throw for 450,” an offensive play caller mentioned. “It’s unbelievable. It’s simply these moments within the playoffs towards the Niners or Packers the place, if you wish to be Tier 1, one in every of these occasions you’re going to must put that crew in your again and can your crew to a win.”
Prescott’s 5 profession video games with 450-plus yards are tied with Drew Brees for second-most in NFL historical past (together with playoffs) behind Ben Roethlisberger’s eight. Dan Marino, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are subsequent with 4 apiece. Of these quarterbacks, Prescott is the one one by no means to achieve a convention championship recreation.
“I’ve at all times given Dak a 2,” a defensive coordinator mentioned. “After I did it this yr, I gave him a 3. He proves yr in and yr out that he can’t get it accomplished (within the postseason).”
On the different excessive, an exec from one of many Cowboys’ division rivals positioned Prescott in Tier 1.
“With out him, they might be a really common or marginal crew,” this exec mentioned.
That is the fifth consecutive yr Prescott ranked between ninth and twelfth.
“Dak might be the definition of a 2,” one other defensive coordinator mentioned. “There are some holes, he’s not excellent, however he’s about as regular of a 2 as you might be.”
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It’s been a protracted highway again for Goff, who reached Tier 2 for the primary time since 2019, when he was coming off a Tremendous Bowl with the Rams.
One defensive coordinator referred to as Goff a greater, youthful model of Kirk Cousins: missing in mobility, however proficient in figuring out defenses earlier than the snap, getting his crew in the precise performs, working by way of progressions and minimizing errors.
“It’s arrange in order that it’s proper in entrance of him, and he doesn’t must make quite a lot of selections on the sphere,” one other defensive coordinator mentioned. “They’ve received run recreation, they’ve a bunch of checkdowns to the tight finish, they’ve received good gamers round him. He simply has to go 1-2-3 and fireplace the ball. However he’s one other man who, if it got here right down to a two-minute drive, I wouldn’t really feel nice about him in that state of affairs.”
Goff’s 2.20 common and No. 10 rating are each profession bests in eight Tiers appearances.
“He received an offense he can run, and he’s eliminating the ball,” a head coach mentioned. “I don’t suppose he ever wins the massive one, however he performed properly sufficient final yr to go from a 3 to a 2. He has to have the weapons round him. He can’t do it by himself.”
One defensive coach pointed to Goff and Tua Tagovailoa as top-five picks who’ve produced at near-elite and borderline alternative ranges at numerous factors, based mostly on what’s round them.
“Goff is someplace between Tier 2 and Tier 3 for me,” an assistant GM mentioned. “He has been actually good, however I feel he has an excellent system and good personnel. I’m unsure he carries the crew. He’s a conventional pocket man that wants safety however makes all of the throws. He lacks mobility, and I’m unsure he can carry the crew solely.”
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Hurts slipped 5 spots after failing to maintain the momentum from his 2022 Tremendous Bowl season.
“Hurts performed so properly the earlier yr, I’m giving him a mulligan with a number of the issues they’d happening offensively,” a coach who positioned Hurts in Tier 2 mentioned. “I don’t suppose he was dangerous, essentially.”
Some voters suppose Hurts will wrestle to recapture the success he loved when Shane Steichen was his offensive coordinator. One half-jokingly referred to as him “a Tier 3 lock” with out the tush push.
“If they’ll’t run the ball, Hurts is just not efficient,” a defensive coordinator mentioned. “He can’t deal with pure move. When he received harm and he turned motionless they usually needed to throw the ball, he confirmed what he was. I feel they may have paid a man that they’re going to must have a extremely good crew round to win video games.”
The Eagles began 10-1 final season however completed 11-6.
“I nonetheless suppose he’s a 2,” one other defensive coordinator mentioned. “His make-up, unbelievable competitor. This can be a dude who, Tua beats him out (in faculty at Alabama), he goes someplace else (Oklahoma) and leads that crew to (the Faculty Soccer Playoff). He’s going to return up brief quarterback talent-wise by way of accuracy and no matter, however all his different s— elevates him to a 2.”
Whereas Saquon Barkley’s addition signaled an organizational dedication to the bottom recreation, voters see new coordinator Kellen Moore as extra pass-oriented in nature.
“The phrase is on the market, in the event you run zero (blitz) towards Hurts, or present zero and again everybody out, he’ll panic,” a defensive coach mentioned. “That has to alter. They lose Jason Kelce, who dealt with the protections, principally did every thing, and also you usher in a coordinator who likes to drop again. It is going to be attention-grabbing.”
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Purdy rose 13 spots from 2023, tying Jordan Love for the biggest soar from final yr. His 2.32 common vote is the perfect for a 49ers quarterback in Tiers historical past (Colin Kaepernick, 2.50 in 2014).
“After they have needed to transfer the ball through dropback move, that has been the distinction between him and Jimmy (Garoppolo),” a head coach mentioned. “Purdy has accomplished it, and he’s accomplished it in moments the place he needed to pull the ball down towards Detroit and go get a primary down along with his legs. He has an innate really feel. He has confirmed even when it’s not going properly, he’s 1 / 4 away from clicking in, and also you’d higher have a lead when he does.”
Tough video games towards Baltimore and Cleveland have been exceptions.
“The system actually helps, however he maximizes it,” a defensive coordinator mentioned. “I’m not saying he’s Kurt Warner, however he jogs my memory of that kind of physique. Not massive, not an excellent arm, however he’s correct, he is aware of when to do away with the ball, he’s sharp, he’s a bit bit higher athlete than you suppose.”
Warner had even higher expertise round him whereas with the Rams.
“I truthfully may debate calling Brock a 1,” an offensive play caller mentioned. “He’s actually underrated. Kyle Shanahan deserves a ton of credit score, however there nonetheless needs to be any person on the change.”
The 16 voters putting Purdy in Tier 3 gave extra credit score to Shanahan and a robust supporting forged.
“I might slide him to the highest of three,” an assistant GM mentioned. “I’m not bought that it’s a common talent set for various techniques. However for his or her system and their offense, they vastly capitalize on what his talents are. That may be a credit score to the teaching employees.”
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Cousins’ regular climb continues with a career-best 2.38 common, the third consecutive season his common has improved.
“He has gotten far more brave within the pocket,” a defensive coach mentioned. “I’ve to provide him that. He understands soccer, can throw the ball on time, could make all of the throws. Can he carry the crew and put them on his again by himself? I haven’t seen that. Possibly he’s extra like a Purdy kind of man.”
An offensive coach pushed again on the Purdy comp.
“Purdy has accomplished it with a extremely good roster, and it’s actually cool what he has accomplished,” this coach mentioned. “I’m not attempting to take any credit score from that child, however Kirk has accomplished it with totally different folks. He has constantly stored his crew in it over time. That’s the place I give him the sting.”
Cousins was arguably taking part in in addition to ever earlier than struggling a torn Achilles tendon and signing with the Falcons. Atlanta’s determination to draft Michael Penix Jr. within the first spherical raises questions on Cousins’ future.
“I feel Cousins won’t be the quarterback in Atlanta subsequent yr,” one voter mentioned. “Except Atlanta wins a number of video games within the playoffs, the season is a failure for Kirk, sadly, based mostly on the need to see Michael Penix.”
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In 11 years of Tiers, solely Mahomes, Jackson, Allen and Trevor Lawrence have made bigger year-over-year positive aspects than the 13-spot soar Love made this offseason.
“Of the blokes I feel that may ascend to 1, that is the man that involves thoughts,” a defensive coordinator mentioned. “He’s received command of the offense, he could make each throw, he could make performs off-script, he can play on-script, he will get the ball out on time when every thing is correct and he’s extra athletic than you suppose. He’s received a playmaker’s mentality, and he began taking part in with a confidence that everyone can see.”
Love had began just one recreation earlier than final season, making him a Tier 4 choice virtually by default. The 19 begins he made final season, together with two within the playoffs, impressed voters.
“He’s a 2 going to a 1,” an offensive play caller mentioned. “F—, he had an ideal goddamn passer score within the playoff recreation (towards Dallas). He could make all of the throws, he’s composed. Very impressed.”
Love was the one participant exterior the highest 11 to obtain a Tier 1 vote.
“Simply watching him, man, it’s arduous to quantify into phrases,” mentioned the lone voter who put Love in Tier 1. “I’m simply going to let you know, watching him with my eyes, I’m like, holy s—, this man is beginning to determine it out in an enormous manner.”
An assistant GM mentioned there might be a rush to anoint Love based mostly on the Packers’ historical past on the place, with Inexperienced Bay getting the advantage of the doubt in a “they’ve accomplished it once more” sense.
“Squeaking into the playoffs at 9-8 out of a nasty division, I’m going to must see a bit extra from him personally earlier than elevating him,” a head coach who positioned Love in Tier 3 mentioned.
One other head coach warned towards studying an excessive amount of into Love’s spectacular playoff displaying towards the Cowboys. This coach desires to see Love in additional dropback conditions.
“What makes me optimistic is how a lot better he received because the season progressed,” a former GM mentioned. “That they had quite a lot of rookies and younger guys taking part in with him. He elevated the play of the blokes round him.”
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Tier 3
A Tier 3 quarterback is a reputable starter however wants a heavier operating recreation and/or defensive element to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense fits him greatest.
Tagovailoa’s inventory has improved yearly since his 2021 Tiers debut, placing him on the verge of Tier 2. However the hole between his new $53.1 million annual wage and his Tier 3 standing is conspicuous.
“Miami has accomplished an unbelievable job with Tua, giving him straightforward throws, giving him straightforward appears, catch-and-runs to 4.3 guys,” an offensive coach with AFC East expertise mentioned. “If you’re sitting there in a pure-pass state of affairs, if he has to take a seat there and browse stuff and undergo his progressions, I don’t have quite a lot of confidence in what that’s going to seem like.”
It didn’t look good towards the Chiefs final season, however Tagovailoa’s manufacturing was enough for twenty-four voters to position him in Tier 2. That’s up from seven final yr.
“I put him proper in the course of that Tier 2 stack,” a head coach mentioned. “You might have principally received a man who is an ideal match for Mike McDaniel. He’s going to throw for 4,500 yards and a gazillion touchdowns, and statistically, it’s going to be arduous to disclaim. However, form of like with Kyle Shanahan’s quarterbacks, what are you going to do when it’s the (playoffs) towards the Chiefs and it’s a two-minute drive and play-action and all that s— ain’t going that can assist you?”
Purdy passing Tagovailoa was notable in that each play in extremely acclaimed schemes on groups with elite offensive weaponry.
“Tua does an excellent job anticipating,” one other head coach mentioned. “I don’t see him make it proper when it’s not proper. Purdy does. If there’s a free hitter on the sting, Purdy can spin out, preserve his eyes downfield. I don’t see Tua have that creativity or general athleticism to do this.”
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Lawrence fell seven spots, the most important drop for any participant from 2023. The hole between his wage rating (tied for first) and his Tiers rating (fifteenth) is the biggest in that path for any participant in Tiers historical past.
Not everybody thinks Lawrence can bridge that hole.
“It’s an issue if possession thinks you’re a 1 or a 1.5, however actually you’re a 2 in yr, and extra of a 2.5, actually,” one voter mentioned.
Some voters drew parallels between Lawrence and Herbert as gifted passers with understated personalities attempting to beat lesser organizations. Voters see each as gamers NFL groups would haven’t any bother choosing first in a draft. Is one thing lacking?
“There’s something that Burrow has, that Josh Allen has, that Mahomes has that borders on cocky, that I don’t really feel with Herbert or Lawrence,” a defensive coach mentioned. “I don’t know if it’s a confidence or a poise or a command. Possibly I’m misjudging that with simply humility.”
Lawrence was trending positively getting into final season. The Jaguars began 8-3 earlier than accidents collected for Lawrence — first a shoulder, then a knee, then an ankle. Are voters studying an excessive amount of into an simply explainable short-term dip?
“He’s cellular, strong-armed, good dimension, actually gifted,” an assistant GM mentioned. “He has a pair holes in his recreation. I ponder if it was only one (down) yr. I do like him, and if I had him, I’d be proud of him. Possibly he can development to Tier 2.”
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The final feeling on Murray is that the Cardinals should play a selected manner with him, and it stays to be seen whether or not that’s factor for Arizona after Murray returned from a torn ACL to make eight comparatively understated begins final season.
“Folks would say, ‘Kyler Murray, Tier 2? How?’” a head coach putting Murray in Tier 2 mentioned. “He goes in and beats the Eagles (35-31 in Week 17). This can be a man who as soon as had a crew (7-1). He does have limitations and/or a gap in his recreation that make it arduous for him to be Tier 1 ever.”
Murray peaked in Tier 2 getting into 2022, however his inventory suffered after he signed a contract with a “homework” clause, after which was injured.
“His velocity and elusiveness as an elite trait have waned a bit, and in the event you make him play as a passer, he can’t do it,” an offensive coach mentioned. “I don’t suppose he can see the home windows, and I’m unsure he is aware of what he’s .”
Murray ought to have a greater probability to alter these perceptions as he returns to full well being this season, with an offense that’s not new to him and a probably elite receiving expertise in rookie first-round decide Marvin Harrison Jr.
“Should you simply grade the flashes, he could make loopy performs and have a recreation, however I don’t suppose you may win constantly with him,” a defensive coordinator mentioned.
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That is the fourth consecutive yr Watson has fallen in Tiers voting and the bottom he has ranked in seven profession appearances.
“He’s a 3, and it’s only a dangerous match,” an exec mentioned. “You might have an RPO quarterback in a play-action offense. Not combine.”
The offense figures to evolve beneath new coordinator Ken Dorsey.
“He’s a greater pocket passer than given credit score for, however he’s at all times been gradual going by way of his progressions, as a result of he knew if it broke down, folks couldn’t catch him,” a defensive coach mentioned. “Loads of stuff he did (with Houston), there was designed RPOs and motion performs for him. Possibly the processing is a tick gradual. I can’t clarify it. It simply appears like there’s something lacking.”
Watson has began 12 video games in two seasons with the Browns after he sat out 2021 in Houston. He’s coming off surgical procedure on his throwing shoulder, and his elevated sack charge (9.8 % with Cleveland) may work towards sustained well being.
Regardless of how Watson performs, or how incessantly he performs, the Browns owe him $138 million over the subsequent three seasons.
“I ponder if he loves it sufficient,” an offensive coach mentioned. “He needs to be manner higher than this.”
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Solely Love and Purdy improved extra from final yr in common vote.
“Baker had an excellent yr,” an exec mentioned. “It’s arduous for me to say he’s greater than a 3, but when he does it once more, he’s there. … He wants to point out some consistency with it.”
Mayfield’s 10 votes in Tier 2 have been greater than double the quantity for any quarterback ranked decrease, signaling a dropoff inside Tier 3 behind him.
“He can sling it,” a defensive coordinator mentioned. “If he’s coached properly and he feels good, he is an effective system quarterback. He can get rolling and make some performs. He doesn’t scare me. With a few of these 2’s, you’re like, ’Oh, s—, I’ve to do one thing to cease them.’ I don’t really feel that with Baker. He’s a man the place we are able to play our stuff and be fantastic.”
Voters used the phrase “moxie” extra when discussing Mayfield than when discussing another quarterback. In addition they thought Mayfield did a greater job than some at getting the ball to his greatest gamers, notably Mike Evans final season.
“Bodily, not probably the most imposing, however the man has moxie,” one other exec mentioned. “He has soccer instincts. He has really feel. I do suppose he’s robust. He can take successful. And the underside line, he has good manufacturing. A few of it’s the intangible profile: instincts, management, moxie, really feel, can preserve performs alive along with his ft and motion abilities inside the pocket. Regardless of his lack of top, he is ready to navigate that and get the ball to his playmakers.”
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Carr’s No. 20 rating ties for his worst in 10 Tiers appearances. His 3.00 common is his worst since 2015, when Carr was getting into his second season and on the upswing.
“He’s a 3 with out (Jon) Gruden,” an offensive coach mentioned. “Gruden may carry the mantel of all of the management, the place Carr may simply snuggle up beneath the umbrella of Gruden. He’s uncovered now. He’s the umbrella. It’s not comfy. That takes away from his manufacturing.”
Carr’s statistics from final season aligned with Mayfield’s. Each led groups that completed 9-8. However voters see Carr as a declining participant missing the intangibles they suppose are strengths for Mayfield.
“We discuss like Baker is a few revitalization story,” a head coach mentioned. “No, Baker has taken two groups to division titles. Derek Carr was in that very same NFC South division with a greater protection.”
The Saints ranked ninth and the Buccaneers have been 18th final season in EPA per play on protection, per TruMedia.
“What holds (Carr) again is a scarcity of toughness within the pocket, and a few of his determination making inside the scheme,” one other exec mentioned.
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Cooper Neill / Getty Photographs
Smith plateaued this yr after surging into Tier 3 following his breakout 2022 season. That was sufficient to complete one spot forward of Russell Wilson, the quarterback he changed in Seattle.
“He was a constant participant for 2 years in a row as a starter, and he performed good ball,” an offensive coordinator who positioned Smith in Tier 2 mentioned. “They didn’t win due to their run recreation. They didn’t win due to protection. They gained as a result of the move recreation was fairly constant.”
Over the previous two seasons, Seattle ranked twelfth in EPA per move play on offense and fourth-worst in EPA per play on protection.
“There are two guys within the 3 class who could be a little totally different,” a defensive coach mentioned. “Trevor Lawrence is one, after which Justin Fields can win the sport due to his ft. All people else, not a lot. I don’t really feel I’m going to lose a recreation due to Geno Smith.”
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Ryan Kang / Getty Photographs
That is the fourth consecutive yr Wilson has fallen in Tiers since he entered 2020 as a unanimous Tier 1 choice.
“I might not be shocked if he has success in Pittsburgh due to the tradition and system,” an assistant GM mentioned.
Wilson will play beneath a possible future Corridor of Fame head coach for the third time after beginning with Pete Carroll and bouncing from Sean Payton to Mike Tomlin.
“To me, he could be a 5 if he wasn’t with Tomlin,” an offensive coordinator mentioned. “Tomlin is a psychologist. He can push the precise buttons. Nonetheless good Russell Wilson might be, Mike Tomlin will determine it out.”
Wilson’s slide this offseason was solely about one-third as massive because the slide he suffered in 2023.
“I didn’t suppose that will go properly with Sean (Payton),” the top coach mentioned. “I really feel dangerous for all of the scrutiny he has confronted, a few of which he brings on himself. I simply don’t suppose he sees the sphere properly. I see a man that performed a sure manner and was in a position to do it at a excessive stage for a sure time period, and I simply don’t suppose he has the athleticism to play that manner.”
One other head coach mentioned he thought Wilson remained adequate to “get you out and in of video games” — the very definition of a veteran participant straddling the road between Tiers 3 and 4. The Steelers have but to resolve whether or not Wilson or Justin Fields will begin Week 1, amplifying issues round Wilson.
“Once you have a look at the stats in Denver, Russ didn’t play dangerous,” a defensive coordinator mentioned. “He simply wasn’t match for Sean. Let’s see what he does this yr. He can throw the deep ball — boy, can he throw the deep ball.”
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Joe Sargent / Getty Photographs
Tier 4
A Tier 4 quarterback might be an unproven participant (not sufficient info for voters to categorise) or a veteran who ideally wouldn’t begin all 17 video games.
Jones, 1-5 as a starter final season earlier than struggling a torn ACL, misplaced about half the bottom he gained amongst voters coming off his sturdy 2022 season.
“I’ve really watched quite a lot of him,” a former head coach mentioned. “I might give him a 3. He’s not dangerous. I don’t understand how a lot he’s going to run after knee and neck accidents, but it surely’s his means to run that offers him some life. The throwing is simply common.”
One other voter pointed to $23 million in harm ensures for Jones in 2025 when suggesting the Giants may have incentive to play backup Drew Lock.
“The phrases ’Daniel Jones’ and ’harm assure’ are going to return up a lot this yr,” this voter mentioned. “I don’t suppose the Giants are promoting tickets round Daniel Jones. I do suppose Malik Nabers goes to be Offensive Rookie of the Yr, a minimum of amongst non-quarterbacks. Drew Lock is just not a long-term starter, however I noticed him do a extremely good job getting the ball to DK Metcalf, getting the ball to (Jaxon) Smith-Njigba.”
Would you slightly have Jones on a $40 million annual wage or, say, Jacoby Brissett at one-fifth the associated fee? These have been the types of questions voters thought-about as Jones returns from a torn ACL in what might be a make-or-break season for him and for Giants management.
“You exit to the gun vary, you shoot a gun, you are feeling actual comfy hitting the goal,” a defensive coach mentioned. “However when individuals are taking pictures again, he isn’t as correct. When the s— will get shifting and it’s dwell soccer, I feel that’s what will get him — lacking throws, making extra errors.”
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Peter Joneleit / Icon Sportswire / Getty Photographs
Fields is just not constant sufficient as a passer for voters to need him as their quarterback, however he’s harmful sufficient as a runner for voters to worry going through him.
“Fields is difficult to go towards,” a defensive coordinator mentioned. “He can win you video games in the event you play complementary soccer and also you’ve received the run recreation going, you’ve received play-actions, keepers. I form of wish to give him a 3, however he ain’t going to win you video games dropping again.”
Voters agreed that the Bears have been inconsistent in tailoring their offensive scheme to maximise what Fields does greatest.
“I can see folks placing him as a 4, however if in case you have run recreation and he’s a part of that run recreation, you may win,” an exec mentioned. “I don’t wish to play him due to the best way he can run the soccer. He’s a dimension that this league doesn’t have. He’s Jalen Hurts on nitroglycerin. Quick, sturdy, bodily, robust. I might not surrender on him.”
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Justin Ok. Aller / Getty Photographs
The huge hole between the Nineteenth-ranked quarterback wage ($25 million per yr for Seattle’s Smith) and the No. 20 wage ($12.5 million for Minshew) conveys how the league sees Minshew: as a veteran who ideally won’t begin all 17 video games.
“No one desires him to be a starter, in all probability even his personal crew, however he gained video games with Indy final yr,” an offensive coach mentioned. “Once you play him, the child is aggressive. He’ll preserve you within the recreation — and them. It’s going to be a battle.”
Voters give Colts coach Shane Steichen a big share of credit score for the success Indy loved with Minshew within the lineup final season.
“Gardner Minshew is an actual gutsy participant,” a defensive coordinator mentioned. “All people on the crew goes to like him. He’s going to increase performs along with his legs. He’s sensible. He’ll be capable of perform within the offense. However he’s simply restricted.”
Minshew, 7-6 as a starter final season, prevailed over Aidan O’Connell within the battle to start out for the Raiders. He has by no means began greater than 13 video games in a season.
“I wish to see what it appears like when he performs all 17,” a head coach mentioned.
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Chris Unger / Zuffa LLC / Getty Photographs
Voters who noticed Richardson in particular person final season marveled at his expertise.
“All people is scared to demise of him within the NFL,” a head coach mentioned.
“He’s the closest factor to Cam Newton since Cam, being a person that massive who can run the ball and rip it,” an offensive coach mentioned.
“Watching this dude in pregame from the 50 simply arc and tempo it, I mentioned, ‘This man could be a drawback if all of it comes collectively, as a result of he has the athleticism,’” one other offensive coach mentioned.
“You might be hard-pressed to inform me, if he retains creating and stays wholesome, that he’s not going to be backside of Tier 2 subsequent yr,” one other head coach mentioned.
Well being is one key variable. Richardson’s means to develop right into a extra constantly correct passer is one other.
“Shane Steichen constructed an offense with some actually distinctive stuff, and we noticed glimpses, however Richardson stored getting harm,” a coach mentioned. “I don’t know what adjustments this yr. I don’t see a path for them to have a profitable offense with this quarterback with out placing him at continued danger for harm.”
That would be the Colts’ problem.
“Richardson is erratic within the pocket and all that, however he’s an enormous, massive man who could make issues occur,” a defensive coach mentioned. “He’s a 3 that may elevate for positive. Shane understands area issues out for him to make the targets simpler and get him concerned within the run recreation.”
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Todd Rosenberg / Getty Photographs
Voters see Levis as a strong-armed prospect with questionable instincts for the place.
“I do suppose there was good tape on him final yr,” an exec mentioned. “He confirmed confidence, he had a pleasant vitality about him on the sphere, he had a toughness about him. He regarded like he could be a man. He can get wound up a bit tight, so I wish to see how he handles the stress of expectations.”
Levis began 9 video games final season and took 28 sacks behind a weak offensive line.
“It’s arduous to guage him on final yr as a result of their line was so dangerous,” a defensive coordinator mentioned. “I’ll give him a 4, but when I’m being trustworthy, I feel subsequent yr is possibly a 3 and that’s it. I don’t see the upside.”
The Titans chosen Levis thirty third within the 2023 draft, making him the fourth quarterback in his class.
“He makes some spectacular throws,” an offensive coordinator mentioned. “I at all times marvel if he sees it and may react quick sufficient. Is his processing means going to at all times be a bit gradual? That’s all, just a few consciousness. I don’t know if he is aware of when he’s scorching and there are blitzers, that kind of factor.”
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Cooper Neill / Getty Photographs
Younger is the seventh first-round quarterback to debut in Tiers after beginning a minimum of 14 video games as a rookie. His common tier vote (3.82) was the bottom of the seven behind Stroud (1.82), Herbert (2.14), Murray (2.68), Carson Wentz (2.92), Mac Jones (3.06) and Lawrence (3.40).
“I don’t know of a human being that has been put in a worse state of affairs as a quarterback ever, so I’m simply giving him a bit good thing about the doubt,” an offensive coach mentioned.
9 voters did place Younger in Tier 3, however Tier 4 proved to be a catch-all class for him more often than not, both as a result of voters didn’t have sufficient info to make an analysis, or as a result of what voters noticed gave them pause.
“They threw him to the wolves,” a head coach mentioned.
Younger’s small stature was the No. 1 concern.
“From an intelligence standpoint, from an arm energy standpoint, I feel he can do all these issues,” a defensive coordinator mentioned, “however I feel the dimensions is a significant detriment. He nonetheless has escapability, however he’s a smaller-framed man who will wrestle within the pocket and, sooner or later, the man goes to get harm.”
How would Stroud have fared in Carolina if the primary and second picks within the 2023 draft had been reversed?
“Should you give (Younger) a 4, it’s partly as a result of that place was so tousled,” one other voter mentioned. “However I feel Frank Reich is an effective offensive coach. Is Dave Canales actually going to be this revolutionary change on offense? He was good with Baker, I get it, but it surely wouldn’t shock me if we have now this dialog two years from now and Bryce Younger is a 3.”
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David Jensen / Icon Sportswire / Getty Photographs
One season with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco gave Darnold a slight increase with some voters. He commanded 12 votes in Tier 3, twice as many as in 2022, his most up-to-date Tiers look.
“He performed earlier than he was prepared in New York, after which Carolina was a tough deal,” a head coach mentioned. “He received himself again on track with the 49ers. That was wholesome for him.”
The competitors between Darnold and J.J. McCarthy ended abruptly within the preseason after McCarthy’s season-ending knee harm.
“I don’t wish to be a kind of guys who holds onto his draft grade, however I might not be shocked if he holds off J.J. McCarthy for some time,” the top coach mentioned earlier than McCarthy’s harm. “(Darnold) has the flexibility to play to a 2.”
All would agree that the infrastructure in Minnesota is best for Darnold than the conditions with the Jets and Panthers have been for him.
“Typically I feel he’s a 3 in the precise state of affairs,” an exec mentioned. “It could not shock me if he has an honest yr with Kevin (O’Connell). I’m teetering between 3 and 5. I’ll exit on a limb and say he’s a 3 this yr.”
Darnold received as many votes in Tier 5 as he received in Tier 3, so it’s a stretch to say these optimistic takes have been consultant of the group. He has by no means began greater than 13 video games in a season.
“He has been with a number of groups, and we’re nonetheless ready for the man,” a defensive coordinator mentioned. “He’s simply jittery, man.”
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Stephen Maturen / Getty Photographs
When Brissett was in Cleveland (2022), the Browns averaged extra EPA per play and per move play in his 11 begins than they’ve averaged with another quarterback within the lineup since Kevin Stefanski turned coach in 2020.
After all, the 2024 Patriots aren’t as gifted because the Browns.
“Jacoby is a 3.5 who can win some video games for you in the precise system,” a head coach mentioned. “He is among the few backup quarterbacks that might begin on this league. It labored in Cleveland as a result of he’s a play-action thrower and that system matches him.”
Brissett’s coordinator in Cleveland, Alex Van Pelt, is his coordinator in New England.
“He’s a strong 4, an excellent backup buffer man till you get your starter prepared,” a defensive coordinator mentioned.
A former GM predicted rookie Drake Maye could be within the lineup for the Patriots round Week 5 or 6.
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Jaiden Tripi / Getty Photographs
About this story: Edited by David DeChant. Growth by Marc Mazzoni. Design by Dan Goldfarb and John Bradford. Design path by Skye Gould, Ray Orr and Amy Cavenaile. Images by Getty Photographs and USA Right now.
The story of the best gamers in NFL historical past. In 100 riveting profiles, prime soccer writers justify their choices and uncover the historical past of the NFL within the course of.
The story of the best gamers in NFL historical past.
