Eighteen AFL groups turned eight simply three weeks in the past. Since then these eight have been whittled right down to the ultimate 4 contenders for the 2024 premiership.
Every of the 4 groups have — at one stage or one other — held favouritism for the flag. With simply two weeks of footy left within the season it’s really anybody’s competitors. Every of the groups are usually strong throughout the board — as excellent soccer groups are typically.
Every of those 4 contenders — Sydney, Port Adelaide, Geelong and Brisbane — have explicit components of their recreation that must go proper to elevate the flag.
These are parts that every staff must get proper this week to be able to make the grand closing subsequent week.
Sydney’s shot era energy
Because the minor premier the Swans arguably have extra clear strengths than anybody left.
Regardless of a late season wobble, the Swans entered finals with the primary rating subsequent to their title. They have been within the high three in scoring from each the entrance half and again half. Their defence wasn’t that dangerous both.
In anybody’s phrases they have been a strong soccer staff throughout the yr, worthy of the title of minor premier.
However let’s concentrate on one thing that is not historically related to the Swans in recent times: their assault.
The Swans completed the yr with essentially the most whole factors of any facet. They have been additionally essentially the most environment friendly at turning inside 50s into factors. Sydney swooped within the objectives regardless of the way you break it down.
However how the Swans went about it was a bit of extra uncommon. Whereas the Swans run three tall forwards at most occasions, they’ve languished close to the underside at taking marks inside 50.
As an alternative, it is the potent small forwards and midfielders pushing ahead that do a whole lot of the harm. The Swans use smaller choices like Heeney, Hayward, Papley and Warner to hit the scoreboard on the run.
The Swans additionally aren’t afraid to bomb away from deep. Solely six groups rating greater than a objective a recreation from greater than 40 metres out on the run. Sydney is the one facet going at two objectives a recreation from such a distance.
As an alternative of performing as traditional focal factors for his or her assault, the talls act as foils and spacing choices for his or her smalls. But when an excessive amount of consideration is diverted, occasions equivalent to Joel Amartey kicking 9 objectives in a recreation can happen.
Briefly, if the Swans can get their ahead line going — not like of their spherical 20 recreation in opposition to the Energy — they will stand an excellent likelihood at staying alive for yet one more week.
Port Adelaide’s ball-winning prowess
Two weeks in the past Port was humbled in a wide range of methods by Geelong. Most placing was how the sport performed out by means of the contests proper throughout the bottom.
Not solely did Geelong collect extra ball from contests at floor degree, however in addition they used it extra successfully. Geelong’s win was complete, however their 91-77 victory in successful disputed ball at floor degree greater than helped them on their method.
There is part of this that’s no shock. Port was one of many strongest groups at successful the ball at clearances, however the weakest at successful the ball post-clearance. When Port flies in defence they like to mark and never spoil. They’re additionally not essentially the most aggressive facet at leaping handball lanes.
Final week — on paper — offered Port with their kryptonite. Hawthorn got here into their semifinal because the strongest floor ball staff within the competitors and have been metaphorically flying. Finest in opposition to worst normally is not powerful to foretell.
Nonetheless, Port defied expectations. The Energy greater than did the job in opposition to the Hawks at floor degree. The 104 to 94 victory by the Energy was one among their strongest floor ball wins of the yr.
Port’s gamers labored exhausting on their contest positioning — spacing across the ball extra successfully and dealing at hitting the drop of the ball at pace. It was clear that Ken Hinkley and his staff centered exhausting on this explicit a part of their recreation. Hawthorn performed Port extra conventionally than Geelong did at contests, which suited the Energy completely.
Port Adelaide’s strongest win of the yr got here in opposition to Sydney — the facet they face to make the ultimate week of the season. That 112-point win was powered by a large 86 to 62 floor ball benefit. On paper Port match up with Sydney properly on this space of the bottom given how each side prefer to method contests.
If Port are to make a 3rd AFL grand closing, it’s going to possible be powered by their potential to dominate the bottom ball recreation.
Geelong’s rock strong defence
Most followers have been in awe on the 138 factors that the Cats piled up when beating the Energy on their dwelling deck in week one of many finals. That is sensible — objectives are thrilling, and intercept marks aren’t.
However over the closing stretches of the season it was the opposite finish of the bottom that powered the Cats in the direction of this vaulted place. Geelong’s defence has lengthy been a energy for Chris Scott. However with shifting components within the ahead half of the bottom, this energy has change into a reliance.
Led by Zach Gutrhrie, Mark Blicavs, Jack Henry and Jake Kolodjashnij, the Cats have successfully shut down their defensive 50. The defence has shifted away from attacking exhausting from defence — the Cats sit close to league common at scoring from intercepts over the previous 5 video games.
The Cats typically transfer a spare participant again from stoppages after the competition breaks free — typically former All-Australian defender Tom Stewart. This creates an additional defensive quantity to forestall sides from scoring in transition. Additionally they do not overcommit on the counter assault and talk successfully. They get a lot of the fundamentals proper in defence — key for a facet who’s primed to achieve September.
That defensive potential has stored them in video games the place they do not win territory. In the event that they do handle to win the sphere place and possession battle it may well blow groups out of the water.
Brisbane’s entrance half recreation
For those who hearken to sufficient coaches discuss, the phrases “we need to be a entrance half staff” will possible come out in the end. There is a good cause for that — territory typically dictates the trail of play in soccer.
Not solely is Brisbane a entrance half staff, they’re probably the greatest entrance half groups within the competitors. At their finest, the Lions have no weak hyperlinks ahead of centre, and might assault objectives by way of their opponents’ weaknesses.
That potential to create repeat possibilities at objective — both by way of stoppage or turnover — is important for the Lions to succeed. The Lions have handled numerous distinguished accidents to their defensive shares by means of the yr. An efficient staff defence larger up the bottom has helped Chris Fagan cope with these points, as has an elevated focus round stoppage.
Brisbane’s objective kicking woes have been properly documented over the yr. They’ve additionally been on full show of their two finals. It isn’t simply that they kick a whole lot of behinds, however extra that their let-downs have come from comparatively easy positions.
The Lions sit at about league common in changing harder pictures — set pictures exterior 40, from the pockets, and pictures from common play. However they have been simply the worst set shot staff within the league at kicking at objective from straight in entrance of objectives inside 40 metres — the gimmes. Brisbane has been a full 0.55 factors worse per shot than the “anticipated rating” on this location.
Their Spherical 6 loss to Geelong noticed the confluence of those two issues. Their entrance half lure largely broke down, with the Cats in a position to rating 38 factors from their again half. That is yet one more level than the Lions kicked in whole for the sport from wherever.
That is partly as a result of the Lions firmly did not have their kicking boots on.
Brisbane kicked 4 objectives 13 behinds within the recreation, lacking pictures straightforward and exhausting alike.
If they will defend the bottom extra successfully and kick the ball like a standard staff from straight in entrance they stand an opportunity of righting that outcome.