It is the penultimate weekend of the soccer season, and time for these most fraught of video games — the AFL preliminary finals.
Sydney, Port Adelaide, Geelong and Brisbane can not fear in regards to the flag this weekend.
For these 4 groups, there are not any second probabilities. They should get it proper or miss out on the grand last.
On one degree, these are one-off video games of soccer the place each side begin with 0 factors on the scoreboard.
On one other, there are tendencies by the season and up to date historical past that can be utilized to view these contests.
So what are the keys to those two finals? Will it’s personnel, ways, mindset, location, or a mixture of the lot?
Sydney vs Port Adelaide
Will historical past repeat itself for the Swans?
Port Adelaide has had Sydney’s quantity for some time, with eight straight wins — together with the final three encounters on the SCG. (Getty Pictures: Cameron Spencer)
We discuss soccer being a psychological recreation in addition to a bodily one, and the opening match of prelim last weekend exhibits precisely why.
The Sydney Swans have misplaced eight straight in opposition to Port Adelaide by a median of 34 factors — though it is weighted closely by the latest one, when Sydney was crushed by 112 factors at Adelaide Oval in spherical 21.
Extra pertinently for Friday evening, that run consists of the previous thrice the 2 sides have met on the SCG.
The query is whether or not Port Adelaide’s recreation type is best suited than most in opposition to Sydney, or whether or not they’ve within the Swans’ heads to some extent.
That final thrashing was absolutely an outlier, the place the Energy scored 90 factors from intercepts and 57 from clearances in a dominant show.
At that time, Sydney had misplaced 5 video games out of six — since then, nevertheless, they’ve gained 4 in a row together with a thriller in opposition to GWS within the qualifying last.
However, the Energy have been being written off after an 84-point thumping by Geelong in week one in every of finals. However now they’re in a prelim.
So which model of every crew turns up, and if it is shut, will it’s a case of historical past repeating?
Rioli the linchpin for the Energy
There are many vital gamers for Port Adelaide, from stars Zak Butters and Connor Rozee to Jase Burgoyne, who was sensible off half-back every week in the past within the semifinal.
However crucial of all would possibly simply be Willie Rioli.
Rioli has pace, consciousness and numerous ability, which have all been on show in the previous couple of weeks.
The previous Eagle small ahead has kicked eight targets and had 5 objective assists within the final month of soccer, to not point out 4 majors within the spherical 21 recreation.
He was very good in opposition to Hawthorn in final week’s semifinal, kicking two targets and organising quite a few assaults together with his pinpoint kicking and passing.
He will likely be a lot wanted on the tighter areas of the SCG.
Cease Heeney, cease Sydney? Not fairly, however it’s a begin
There is a tendency once we take a look at star gamers to suppose that shutting them down is the be-all and end-all to profitable a recreation.
Opposition golf equipment Sydney’s Isaac Heeney may nicely have that feeling seeing how he has gone within the late a part of the season. He has been pivotal of their previous 4 wins, capped together with his efficiency within the qualifying last in opposition to the Giants.
The Energy saved him to 17 touches and a objective again in spherical 21, however that win over the Swans was a smashing across the floor.
You do not have to cease him to achieve success, nevertheless. The Bulldogs beat Sydney on the SCG in spherical 20, regardless of Heeney racking up 32 disposals (12 contested), 4 clearances and a objective help.
That day the Bulldogs’ fierce strain was an excessive amount of for the Swans, as they gained the contested possession rely by 27 and marks inside 50 12-7, with Jamarra Ugle-Hagan kicking 4.
The thrice that Heeney has had 20 disposals or much less in 2024, the Swans have misplaced.
However Port Adelaide cannot afford to place all their effort into one participant — as a result of the likes of Errol Gulden, Chad Warner and Tom Papley may also trigger havoc if left to their very own units.
Who wins the aerial battle?
Port Adelaide outmarked Sydney everywhere in the floor final time spherical — the Swans have to hit some targets inside 50 on the SCG. (Getty Pictures: Mark Brake)
Mitch Georgiades kicked 4 the final time Port Adelaide performed Sydney, and with Todd Marshall out with a concussion and Charlie Dixon a week-to-week proposition proper now, the Energy will want an identical return from the important thing ahead.
Port Adelaide made probably the most of their probabilities, with a whopping 22 marks inside 50 to only 4 for Sydney. They turned that right into a return of 15.6 (96).
If that stat is something comparable on the SCG, then it’s going to possible be a match-winning benefit to the guests.
On the different finish, the Energy took 48 defensive marks between Dan Houston (12), Miles Bergman, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Lachie Jones, Logan Evans and Aliir Aliir. With Houston completed for the 12 months, that raises the strain on the remainder of the again six.
However Sydney’s tall forwards have been one of many crew’s weaknesses all season. If Sydney is to win, Hayden McLean, Logan McDonald and Joel Amartey have to crash in all evening, cease the intercept marks and pressure the ball to floor.
Gradual beginning Sydney can’t permit a repeat
The sport was over as a contest very early on the final time Port Adelaide performed Sydney. (Getty Pictures: AFL Pictures/Sarah Reed)
It is not precisely a newsflash to say that the Swans have an issue with sluggish begins.
Infamously, the Swans have been 7.3 (45) to 0.0 (0) down after 1 / 4 in spherical 21 in opposition to the Energy.
Total, in 24 video games this season, Sydney has averaged 18.6 factors for first quarters, with simply two targets a recreation.
Their opponents have averaged 24 factors 1 / 4, together with three targets a recreation.
In 12 video games on the SCG, the Swans have gained simply 5 first quarters — and that features the primary three house video games of the season. So, simply two first quarter wins at house after spherical 5, with the final one a 7.4 to six.3 shootout in opposition to Adelaide within the last spherical.
They’ve gained all 5 video games once they led at house after 1 / 4. In distinction, the Energy has gained 17 first quarters out of 25.
They’re even higher away from house — the Energy have gained 9 first quarters out of 10 away video games in 2024.
So it is truthful to say that the Swans completely can not afford to snooze by the primary half-hour on the SCG.
Geelong vs Brisbane
Acquainted foes — acquainted end result?
Good day once more …. for Geelong’ Chris Scott and Brisbane’s Chris Fagan, this would be the third time in 5 years that their groups have met within the prelim last. (Getty Pictures: AFL Pictures/Michael Willson)
Geelong coach Chris Scott has achieved an incredible job on the membership, together with his crew lacking finals simply twice in 14 seasons on the helm.
So there’s a tendency to see the Cats because the kings of September. Nonetheless, total, the crew is 14 wins, 15 losses in finals since he took over. That features a 2-5 file in prelim finals.
On the plus facet, nevertheless, this would be the third time in 5 years that Geelong meets Brisbane in a prelim. The earlier two events? Two wins to the Cats, by a median margin of 55 factors.
Does that imply something for this recreation? Not essentially, however mixed with the sport being performed on the MCG — the place the Lions have gained solely three video games out of 26 courting again to 2009 — you’d in all probability desire to be within the Cats’ place.
Midfield battle may have reinforcements for Cats
Shaun Mannagh had 13 rating involvements in opposition to Port Adelaide — the Cats will want their small forwards to supply assist to the midfield in addition to hitting the scoreboard. (Getty Pictures: AFL Pictures/Michael Willson)
Together with their crushing prelim win over Port Adelaide, the Cats have averaged a tick beneath 96 factors a recreation in assault in 2024, so that they have had no bother scoring.
That implies their midfield — and thus provide — should be going all proper.
Nonetheless, a part of the success of Geelong this 12 months has been the midfield being bolstered by the likes of forwards Gryan Miers, Brad Shut and Shaun Mannagh monitoring again to assist out after which bursting ahead at pace.
Towards the Energy in week one in every of finals, it labored a deal with, with Geelong profitable clearances and contested possessions, and hitting again to earn a large 22 marks inside 50 to arrange a giant profitable rating.
Over the season as an entire, nevertheless, Brisbane Lions are primary for clearances, and primary specifically for stoppage clearances.
With Lachie Neale (who could also be slowed by a foot damage), Hugh McCluggage, Will Ashcroft and Josh Dunkley all able to busting issues open, the midfield battle will likely be a key — and the Lions would possibly simply fancy their probabilities.
It additionally needs to be remembered that should you ignore their kicking for objective (see beneath), the Lions are fairly helpful in assault themselves, scoring a median of 93.4 factors a recreation.
Kicking boots important for Lions
Joe Daniher was kicking them from in all places in opposition to GWS — however the Lions are the least correct of the 4 remaining finalists, and so they should change that to beat Geelong.
(Getty Pictures: Cameron Spencer)
Brisbane will go into the sport with confidence off the again of a shocking turnaround in opposition to the Giants in Sydney, the place the Lions kicked 5 targets with out reply and later seven targets on the spin to overwhelm GWS.
However there’s a wider problem at play than the necessity to not let Jeremy Cameron go loopy within the ahead line or let the Cats get 44 (and even 24) factors up on them on the MCG.
Put merely, the Lions should deliver their kicking boots with them to Melbourne. They have to take their probabilities in opposition to Chris Scott’s males, and that has been a difficulty — to say the least — all season for the Queenslanders.
Brisbane has the worst objective conversion of the ultimate 4 sides in rivalry for the flag. And it is not even shut.
Over the season, the Lions have scored 333 targets, 336 behinds, or a 49.8 per cent accuracy price (not counting occasional out-on-the-fulls). The Cats, nevertheless, are one of the best of the remaining groups, with 341 targets 256 behinds, or 57 per cent.
Making Cats pay for turnovers
Geelong could also be high of the pops for intercepts, by Tom Stewart, Zach Guthrie, Jack Henry, Mark Blicavs and others.
Stopping Stewart and his affect specifically will likely be excessive on Brisbane’s precedence record.
However the Lions are one of the best crew within the AFL for differential in scoring from turnovers.
Brisbane additionally flip it over a median of 62.4 instances a recreation, in comparison with 66.9 for the Cats.
If the Lions can minimise their very own errors, hunt Geelong, pressure the turnovers and make them rely, then they are going to be on the highway to victory.
