The 2024 presidential race clearly stays a contest both Donald Trump or Kamala Harris can win, CBS Information’ newest polling finds.
However with rates of interest and gasoline costs coming down, the variety of voters saying the economic system is nice has ticked up. That, together with a debate voters say was internet optimistic for her, has helped Harris a bit.
The vp has now moved to the slightest of edges throughout the battleground states (it was 50-50 final month), and he or she is now up 4 factors nationally over Donald Trump.
Harris does higher with voters who’ve a optimistic view of the nationwide economic system and of their very own private monetary state of affairs.
And she or he wins voters who say the economic system is at the very least getting higher, if not good proper now. She wins voters who particularly say gasoline costs round them are taking place.
The problem that continues to be for her, although, is that regardless of the development, many citizens nonetheless do not assume issues are good. And those that do not are voting for Trump.
However in all, Harris has narrowed her deficit with Trump amongst those that name the economic system a significant component.
The controversy seems to have helped agency up her help: amongst those that mentioned the talk made them extra prone to again her, nearly all voted for President Biden in 2020.
Voting on private qualities or insurance policies
After the talk, impressions of the candidates present sharp divisions within the voters.
Individuals who prioritize the non-public qualities of a candidate are voting for Harris — she far outpaces Trump on being personally appreciated.
Those that say insurance policies are crucial are evenly cut up between them.
And a whole lot of Trump’s voters don’t love him personally, however do prioritize insurance policies over the non-public qualities.
Trump’s base stays with him, and that help contains approval of what he claimed about immigrants consuming pet canine and cats.
Most voters assume the claims about consuming pets are false, however a big majority of Trump backers says they’re most likely true or definitely true. (The claims have been debunked.)
Voters largely disapprove of Trump making these claims, however two-thirds of Trump voters approve of his doing so.
However they qualify it as “most likely” greater than “definitely” true, and that designation could sign one thing much less literal. His backers see him as talking to what they contemplate a bigger problem, that of immigration and its impression on the nation.
Extra typically, Trump’s voters overwhelmingly see immigrants normally as making American society worse, and would overwhelmingly favor his thought of deporting these within the U.S. illegally, an concept that additionally finds favor with over half of voters general.
Perceptions of immigrants typically sharply divide the coalitions: Trump wins voters who imagine immigrants commit extra crimes, and take jobs from residents; Harris wins voters who assume immigrants fill jobs People will not do, and are a part of what makes America particular.
Violence and threats to democracy
Extra voters say supporters of Republicans have been engaged in rhetoric which may encourage violence than say so about Democrats’ supporters. However the largest single sentiment is that such rhetoric comes from “each” sides.
The obvious Florida assassination try in opposition to the previous president most likely galvanized some Trump help, in that those that say it made them extra apt to vote for Trump had overwhelmingly already backed him in 2020.
Neither facet has a lot optimism in the event that they lose: Most Harris supporters assume the nation will see the next risk of violence if Trump is elected, and most Trump backers assume the nation will see increased threats if Harris is.
Both method, each side assume the general tone and civility in American politics has gotten worse.
Political violence speaks to the concept of democracy extra broadly, a part of which is the concept folks can settle variations peacefully by way of a course of.
Either side do assume democracy is usually threatened, however this has been the case in our polling for a while and isn’t new on this marketing campaign.
This CBS Information/YouGov survey was carried out with a consultant pattern of three,129 registered voters nationwide interviewed between September 18-20, 2024. The pattern was weighted based on gender, age, race, and schooling primarily based on the U.S. Census American Group Survey and the U.S. Census Present Inhabitants Survey, in addition to previous vote. Respondents have been chosen to be consultant of registered voters nationwide. The margin of error for registered voters is ±2.2 factors. Battlegrounds are AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, and WI.
