Israel’s onslaught towards Hezbollah in Lebanon is reassuring for Turkey, which might seize the chance to strengthen its regional affect within the face of its rival Iran, analysts informed AFP.
Regardless of being one among Israel’s fiercest critics, Turkey has been measured in its response to the blows struck towards the Shiite militant group, armed and financed by Tehran, together with the killing of its chief Hassan Nasrallah.
“Hezbollah’s decapitation diminishes the affect of Turkey’s topmost regional rival, Iran, and isn’t one thing Turkey would cry over,” stated Asli Aydintasbas, a Turkey professional on the Brookings Establishment, a US assume tank.
– Erdogan lukewarm on Hezbollah –
Turkey’s Sunni President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been unsparing in denouncing Israel because the begin of its devastating assault on Gaza final yr following a lethal assault by Palestinian militant group Hamas.
However he has in a roundabout way reacted to Hezbollah’s current losses in public — although his international minister Hakan Fidan hailed Nasrallah after his killing.
“If it interprets right into a longer-term weakening of Iran and allied Shiite teams, together with Hezbollah, that may actually pave the way in which for Turkey to play a extra dominant position” in Syria and Iraq, stated Gonul Tol, Turkey director for the Center East Institute, a analysis centre in Washington.
– Turkey’s affect in Syria –
Analysts counsel Turkey is happy by the setback for Hezbollah and, by extension, Iran, largely due to their assist for Bashar al-Assad, chief of neighbouring Syria.
Turkey and Hezbollah “are hardly on the identical web page in terms of regional points, notably in Syria the place the latter helps the regime and is complicit within the conflict crimes Assad has dedicated”, stated Ozgur Unluhisarcikli of the German Marshall Fund, a US assume tank.
The civil conflict between Assad and his rivals has destabilised Turkey’s southern border, thrusting tens of millions of refugees onto its territory.
“From a Turkish perspective, Iran and Hezbollah are the explanations Syria is within the mess that it’s,” Aydintasbas stated.
– Professional-Palestinian, not pro-Hezbollah –
Erdogan has accused Israel of “genocide” of Palestinians in its assault on Gaza and branded Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a conflict felony.
Netanyahu has rejected the declare, saying Israel should crush the Islamist group Hamas within the territory to forestall additional assaults and free hostages seized by the militants.
Analysts say Turkey’s sympathy for the Palestinians — who like Erdogan are Sunni Muslims — doesn’t prolong to assist for Iran, Hezbollah and their different Shiite allies within the area, such because the Huthis in Yemen and factions in Iraq.
“Although opinions in Turkiye range on Nasrallah’s demise and Hezbollah’s losses, it is evident that Turkiye is much less involved about these losses in comparison with these of Hamas,” stated Unluhisarcikli, utilizing the nation’s official Turkish identify.
– Gaza safety prospects –
Observers say Erdogan needs to forged himself as a pacesetter amongst Sunni states — notably the place the long run safety of Gaza is worried.
He hosted Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in September and sure mentioned “a wider coordinating position” for his or her international locations in Gaza after the battle, stated Sinan Ciddi, a Turkish politics professional on the Basis for Protection of Democracies, a Washington-based nonprofit.
Analysts say Erdogan’s tirades towards Israel could have compromised his potential position as a mediator within the area.
However on different fronts, “Ankara may be very cautious in what it says and does as its relations with Iran are all the time delicate,” Aydintasbas stated.
“Turkey is clearly nervous about even higher regional escalation and an all-out conflict between Iran and Israel, with unpredictable implications. It could do all it might to remain out.”
