[Robert Fouser] Why the US election appears to be like so shut

The US presidential election is now only a month away. October historically brings surprises, however as issues stand now, the race is a nail bitter. Vice President Kamala Harris has maintained a small lead over former President Donald Trump in nationwide polls since mid-August, however the race for 270 Electoral School votes stays extraordinarily shut. Campaigns are focusing their efforts on seven battleground states the place just a few thousand votes right here or there might decide the winner.

In comparison with most earlier elections, the race has remained remarkably steady. Within the Biden-Trump race, Trump held a lead all yr that started to develop in the summertime, main to speak of a attainable landslide win. Biden’s withdrawal threw the race in turmoil for just a few weeks, however Kamala Harris rapidly emerged because the nominee and rode a wave of enthusiasm to take the lead. Since then, Harris has had a profitable conference and powerful debate efficiency, however the polls have barely modified.

What does the steadiness of the race imply? Presidential elections within the US have traditionally been about two issues: the incumbent occasion’s efficiency and a imaginative and prescient for the long run. These two elements boil all the way down to competency and hope. Candidates who management the narrative round these two key phrases win, usually by massive margins. In 2020, Joe Biden managed the narrative on competency as a result of Trump obtained low marks for his dealing with of the COVID-19 pandemic. Biden’s management of the hope narrative was weaker, however he supplied extra hope than Trump and gained the election comfortably.

Within the 1980 and 2008 elections, the winner had robust management over each narratives. In 1980, inflation was 12.5 p.c, the federal funds charge was 18 p.c, and Iranian revolutionaries had been holding 52 hostages within the US Embassy in Tehran. Republican nominee Ronald Reagan pounded at President Jimmy Carter’s competency whereas operating on a platform of daring financial reform. Carter portrayed Reagan as harmful, however ultimately, the competency and hope narrative propelled Reagan to a landslide victory.

In 2008, the US economic system confronted its worst disaster for the reason that Nice Melancholy within the Thirties. Folks had been drained from years of army involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan, and President George W. Bush, on the finish of his second time period, was unpopular. Barack Obama simply gained management of the competency and hope narratives, which helped him coast to a simple victory and develop Democratic majorities in Congress.

In 2024, neither candidate has gained management over the 2 narratives. Put up-pandemic inflation, excessive rates of interest and a housing scarcity have voters questioning Joe Biden’s competency. The chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and turmoil within the Center East additionally weigh on the president. Biden ran behind Trump as a result of he supplied extra of the identical, which doesn’t enchantment to most voters.

Donald Trump, in the meantime, has additionally had issue gaining management of the narrative. His caustic, divisive persona mixed with reminiscences of his chaotic time within the White Home don’t encourage emotions of competence or hope. His one robust level, nevertheless, is constructive views of his potential to deal with the economic system. That, greater than something, is what has helped him stay aggressive.

The weaknesses of Biden and Trump clarify why Kamala Harris has pulled forward and the challenges she nonetheless faces. As Biden’s vp, she is related to an unpopular administration, however she has managed to beat this by projecting competence in her speeches and debate efficiency. She has tried to achieve management of the hope narrative by providing particular insurance policies to assist the center class with a deal with households.

A glance again on the 2020, 2008, and 1980 elections exhibits that, of the 2, competence impacts the outcomes greater than hope. When issues go unhealthy, voters are fast in charge the incumbent occasion and punish it by selecting the challenger. Issues now is probably not as unhealthy as these elections, however voters clearly blame Biden for prime costs regardless of latest declines in inflation and low unemployment. A disaster of affordability, greater than something, is weighing Harris down.

This leaves Kamala Harris in a bind. She can’t run from the report of an administration that she is a member of. On the similar time, defending the report dangers alienating the numerous voters who’re apprehensive about affordability. To get out of this bind, Harris has correctly determined to deal with the long run to develop her management of the hope narrative. It is probably not sufficient, however it’s her hope of closing the deal.

Robert J. Fouser

Robert J. Fouser, a former affiliate professor of Korean language schooling at Seoul Nationwide College, writes on Korea from Windfall, Rhode Island. He will be reached at robertjfouser@gmail.com. The views expressed listed here are the author’s personal. — Ed.