There was quite a lot of good baseball this week. Elite pitching performances. One-run contests. Stars getting large hits in large moments.
Thursday night time’s Sport 3 — New York Mets 4, Milwaukee Brewers 2 — was a real postseason epic. Again-to-back Brewers homers within the seventh inning. Pete Alonso going deep within the ninth to maintain his Mets profession going just a little longer. Then Francisco Lindor sprinting for a double play to finish it.
October is all about winner-take-all, and the Wild Card spherical had just one collection that went the space. It didn’t disappoint. The opposite three collection had been sweeps. Which brings us to our first takeaway from the wild-card spherical…
Sport 1 is every little thing
Wild-card sweeps have been the norm beneath this playoff format.
In the course of the period of the one-off Wild Card Sport — which ran from 2012 to 2019 and returned in 2021 — many rued the brutal unfairness of an excellent season washed away in 9 innings. Wouldn’t a three-game collection be a greater resolution than a winner-take-all sport?
To date, the reply is … probably not. For the reason that league moved to the three-game Wild Card Sequence in 2022, the winner of Sport 1 has gained all 12 collection. Solely two collection have even gone to Sport 3. That’s an 83 % sweep price.
If we embody the 2020 postseason — following the pandemic-shortened season, MLB expanded the playoff discipline and staged eight three-game wild-card collection — solely twice in 20 tries has the Sport 1 loser come again to win the collection (A’s and Padres in 2020). Sixteen have been sweeps.
That is nonetheless a small pattern of collection, however it has taken some air out of the balloon. The league would like to have every Wild Card collection go three video games. As a substitute, nearly each collection has been determined in Sport 1.
And if that’s the case, you’d higher have a Sport 1 ace.
Respect the Crown (and the chaos)
The Detroit Tigers had a profitable method for the Wild Card Sequence: a Triple Crown winner in Sport 1, and what supervisor A.J. Hinch known as “pitching chaos” in Sport 2. Let the ace set the stage, and let everybody else shut the curtain.
Whether or not it was Tarik Skubal for the Tigers, Michael King for the Padres or Cole Ragans for the Royals, three of the 4 groups that bought ace-caliber performances within the wild-card opener wound up sweeping. After Skubal tossed six shutout innings in opposition to Houston in Sport 1, the Tigers cycled by way of seven relievers in Sport 2. King’s 12-strikeout gem in Sport 1 left the Braves reeling and the Padres bullpen contemporary for Joe Musgrove’s injury-shortened begin in Sport 2. It was an analogous story for the Royals, whose bullpen was as much as the duty after Seth Lugo was pulled within the fifth inning of Sport 2 in Baltimore.
Corbin Burnes additionally delivered an ace efficiency in Sport 1, permitting one run over eight innings in his last begin earlier than free company, however Bobby Witt Jr. drove within the sport’s solely run. The O’s managed just one run within the sweep.
Chris Sale, the NL Triple Crown winner, didn’t even make the Braves wild-card roster. With Sale affected by again spasms, the Braves had AJ Smith-Shawver to start out Sport 1. He lasted solely 4 outs. The Braves by no means had an opportunity. The Houston Astros additionally fell behind early when ace Framber Valdez continued final yr’s postseason woes. Houston was bounced in two video games. Essentially the most dominant begins within the Brewers-Mets collection got here not from aces however the Sport 3 starters, José Quintana and Tobias Myers.
Tarik Skubal offers in opposition to the Astros. (Kevin M. Cox /. Related Press)
Dwelling-field blues
Once we wrote about every contender’s down-the-stretch schedule, we spent quite a lot of phrases on the jockeying for byes and home-field benefit within the Wild Card Sequence. The previous? Critically essential. (Simply ask the 91-win Orioles and the 93-win Brewers.) The latter? Properly, how a lot does dwelling discipline matter on this spherical?
The house crew has gained solely 9 of 20 three-game Wild Card Sequence since 2020.
Eradicating 2020 from the equation, as a result of ballparks had been empty and the playoff discipline was watered down, the house crew has fared even worse within the Wild Card Sequence, shedding eight of 12 collection.
There’s no logical cause for this to be true. No crew would select to play on the street fairly than at dwelling. However maybe dwelling discipline issues far much less in a three-game collection than different elements: like an ace.
That doubleheader made a multitude
The Braves pitching workers had been in hassle since Spencer Strider’s elbow began barking again in spring coaching, however it was utterly completed when Hurricane Helene compelled a Monday make-up doubleheader, throughout which Sale was added to the prolonged checklist of injured Braves.
Smith-Shawver beginning Sport 1 with neither Austin Riley nor Ronald Acuña Jr. within the lineup? That wasn’t the Braves crew anybody was anticipating again in March. However by the point they had been swept, Atlanta was in tatters. The Braves emptied the bullpen to separate the doubleheader in opposition to the Mets, deployed a spot starter for the primary sport of the playoffs after which needed to cowl for Max Fried’s two-inning begin within the second sport.
They had been gassed.
The opposite half of that season-ending doubleheader was the Mets. Luis Severino pitched properly sufficient in Sport 1 to offer them a preventing probability within the Wild Card Sequence, sticking round for six innings regardless of quite a lot of site visitors early. The cracks began exhibiting in Sport 3. After Quintana turned in six shutout innings, Buttó blew the stalemate and, abruptly, nearer Edwin Díaz was placing out a hearth within the seventh inning. Even absolutely rested, the Mets bullpen didn’t possess a top-tier bullpen. Exhausted, they’re extra more likely to break down. It was David Peterson — a starter — who put the Brewers away by saving Sport 3.
The Central is lifeless (Lengthy stay the Central)
A couple of AL execs had been chatting earlier this yr about how MLB balancing its schedule was going to assist highly effective divisions (just like the AL East) and damage weaker divisions (just like the AL Central). That was the concept, anyway.
However the AL Central has three of the ultimate 4 groups within the American League (the Royals, Tigers and Guardians) whereas the East has solely the Yankees. The Rays, Crimson Sox and Blue Jays missed the match, and the Orioles are already headed dwelling.
Final season, the AL Central had just one crew with a profitable file whereas the AL East had 4.
The NL Central was principally a disappointment this season. The Brewers had been their solely hope to make postseason noise, however they’ve now misplaced their previous six playoff collection and gone 2-10 in postseason video games since 2019. It appeared for a short window of time Thursday night time, after Jake Bauers and Sal Frelick went yard, that half the remaining playoff groups can be from the center of the nation. As a substitute, Alonso knocked out the NL Central fully.
Pete Alonso after his homer in opposition to the Brewers. (Aaron Gash / MLB Photographs through Getty Pictures)
Momentum issues
There’s a pure intuition to imagine groups that come screaming into the playoff image late within the season will likely be came upon as soon as the playoffs start. Their flaws will likely be uncovered. They had been pretenders, in spite of everything.
Then alongside come the Tigers and Mets. The Tigers’ playoff odds had been 0.2 % on Aug. 11, the Mets’ 13.1 % on Aug. 28. Neither had entered the season as something greater than a midfield crew. They had been roughly .500 groups within the first half. After which, outrageous issues occurred. The Tigers traded their No. 2 starter and some different vets, and couldn’t cease profitable. The Mets fiddled with the knobs on their pitching workers, discovered one thing offensively and made miracles occur in Sport 161.
On this spherical, neither was uncovered. The Tigers saved rolling. Their ace was higher than the opposite guys’ ace, and their lineup offered well timed hits. The Mets’ win wasn’t a fluke. They pitched properly, precipitated havoc and rallied when it mattered in opposition to among the best pitching staffs — and finest closers — in baseball.
We lump the Tigers and Mets collectively, partly, as a result of we had them final in our postseason pitching core rating. Not as a result of we thought they had been trash, however as a result of some crew needed to be final, and since it appeared that sooner or later the second-half smoke and mirrors would cease working. Not so. Two previous sayings are true for these two groups:
The entire is larger than the sum of its elements.
And nobody needs to see these guys in October.
5 groups gained at the very least 16 video games in September. Three — the Tigers, Padres and Mets — gained a Wild Card Sequence. A fourth, the Los Angeles Dodgers, earned a first-round bye. The one wild-card crew that didn’t have a profitable second-half file was the Orioles, who went 33-33 and had been knocked out in two video games — maybe not excellent news for the NL favourite Philadelphia Phillies, who had been additionally 33-33 after the break.
You possibly can’t predict ball
Some aces had been aces, and a few stars had been stars — you probably did your households proud, Alonso, Witt and Fernando Tatis Jr. — however within the postseason, not all heroes put on All-Star and Silver Slugger capes. Some are simply dudes who present up after they’re wanted most.
The high-profile Padres hit three dwelling runs of their collection, and two of them got here from No. 9 hitter Kyle Higashioka. The Brewers’ Sport 2 comeback began with Rookie of the 12 months candidate Jackson Chourio, however it was Garrett Mitchell who hit the game-winning homer. Skubal lived as much as his billing for the Tigers, however it was swingman Beau Brieske who closed Sport 1 and pitched 1 2/3 scoreless innings in Sport 2. Which second baseman led the Wild Card spherical in hits and doubles? Not Jose Altuve. It was Brewers speedster Brice Turang.
Among the largest swings within the Wild Card Sequence had been from Andy Ibañez, Jesse Winker and Frelick. Among the most pivotal punchouts had been thrown by Will Vest, Nick Mears and Sam Lengthy.
October is when even probably the most nameless large leaguer can turn into a family identify.
(Prime pictures of Kyle Higashioka, left, and Will Vest and Jake Rogers, proper: Orlando Ramirez, Alex Stiltz / Getty Pictures)
