THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY probably grew by 6% within the third quarter as declining inflation could have fueled a rebound in client spending, Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto mentioned.
“I’m nonetheless hoping 6%, extra in order that inflation is declining,” Mr. Recto instructed reporters on the sidelines of an occasion late on Tuesday.
“The largest [driver] can be family consumption, which is 75% of the economic system,” he added.
For so long as family consumption grows by 6%, Mr. Recto mentioned, the economic system would probably develop by 6%.
Financial managers are focusing on 6-7% development this yr.
Within the second quarter, gross home product (GDP) expanded by 6.3% as improved authorities spending and investments offset weak consumption development. Family spending within the April-June interval grew by 4.6% yr on yr, the weakest because the first quarter of 2021.
For the first half, GDP development averaged 6%. The economic system has to develop by not less than 6% within the second half to hit the low finish of the goal.
The statistics company is predicted to launch third-quarter GDP information on Nov. 7.
Mr. Recto mentioned slowing inflation probably helped drive development within the July-to-September interval.
The patron worth index eased to a four-year low of 1.9% yr on yr in September from 3.3% in August as meals and transport prices declined.
Yr thus far, inflation averaged 3.4%, settling inside the 2-4% goal vary of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).
Mr. Recto mentioned the Growth Price range Coordination Committee (DBCC) may meet earlier than yearend to overview the macroeconomic assumptions and targets.
“I feel the DBCC ought to meet however perhaps in December… probably not to regulate however simply to overview not solely development targets however check out the complete macro-fiscal framework,” he mentioned.
Mr. Recto mentioned that any changes to the federal government’s development and financial targets ought to be for subsequent yr, as financial managers even have to think about different elements reminiscent of exterior headwinds.
“We now have to check out what’s occurring globally additionally. For instance, now we have to arrange simply in case you have got extra tensions within the Center East,” he mentioned.
At its final assembly in June, the DBCC saved the 2024 GDP development goal at 6-7% and 6.5-7.5% GDP growth for 2025. It targets 6.5-8% development from 2026 to 2028.
Earlier this week, Price range Secretary and DBCC Chairperson Amenah F. Pangandaman raised the potential for an upward revision of this yr’s development goal amid slowing inflation and improved state spending.
In the meantime, Albay Rep. Jose Ma. Clemente S. Salceda, who additionally heads the Home Committee on Methods and Means, gave a 5.7-6.1% GDP development forecast for the third quarter.
“Inflation, whereas clearly slowing down, would nonetheless have had some actual affect on the consumption patterns of customers. I anticipate sturdy consumption of primary items to have endured, however some weak point in discretionary spending,” he mentioned in a Viber message.
Rizal Industrial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort mentioned he sees not less than 6% financial development within the July-to-September interval, pushed by higher jobs information.
“Easing inflation pattern would enhance client spending… amid the online enchancment in employment information in latest months to among the many greatest in 19 years,” he mentioned in a Viber message.
The unemployment price eased to 4% in August from 4.7% in July and 4.4% in August final yr. This translated 2.07 million unemployed Filipinos, down by 305,000 from July and by 149,000 from a yr earlier.
The employment price in August rose to 96%, equal to 49.15 million employed Filipinos, from 95.3% in July and 95.6% a yr in the past. — Beatriz Marie D. Cruz
