EAGAN, Minn. — In an alternate universe, the Minnesota Vikings are spending their bye week deciding whether or not the timing is true to advertise rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy to the beginning function. Right here in the true world, in fact, the No. 10 draft choose is on injured reserve and the Vikings’ beginning quarterback — Sam Darnold — has garnered some early MVP assist.
Darnold and the Vikings are the NFL’s greatest shock this season, and one of the vital sudden tales in current reminiscence. Dismissed externally following McCarthy’s preseason knee damage, the Vikings are 5-0 and nearing ESPN’s FPI projection for his or her season win whole (6.8). Darnold has performed the perfect soccer of his seven-year profession, rookie placekicker Will Reichard has been excellent, and the Vikings’ not solely have the league’s finest protection, nevertheless it has produced among the best five-game begins in fashionable NFL historical past.
It has all come in opposition to the NFL’s sixth-most tough schedule, in accordance with FPI, but the Vikings have dominated so totally they’ve trailed for under 3 minutes, 26 seconds of recreation time. That is the fifth-lowest whole by way of 5 video games within the Tremendous Bowl period. All 5 of these groups superior to the Tremendous Bowl that season. Three of them gained the championship.
The Vikings have trailed for 3 minutes, 26 seconds this season. Per ESPN Analysis, that places them within the highest of firm. Solely 4 groups because the 1970 merger have trailed for much less time in Video games 1-5. All went to the Tremendous Bowl, as did the workforce with the next-best mark. Particulars: pic.twitter.com/QGoH8vUc9i
— Kevin Seifert (@SeifertESPN) October 7, 2024
Because the workforce devotes its bye week to fine-tuning, sprucing and enhancing its begin — somewhat than mulling McCarthy’s fast future — listed here are 5 sudden developments which have added as much as one huge shock.
Sam Darnold’s poise
The historical past is value repeating on Darnold, who signed a one-year contract value $10 million in March to function McCarthy’s placeholder. He has the bottom Complete Quarterback Ranking (42) among the many 26 NFL quarterbacks who began no less than 50 video games between 2018 and 2023.
Provided that background, it is wild to see Darnold within the high half of the NFL’s 2024 QBR rankings (No. 14, 58.2) — even after his worst recreation of the season within the Vikings’ 23-17 victory over the New York Jets Sunday. Darnold is tied for second with 11 landing passes and has used his huge arm to push the ball downfield usually sufficient to rank No. 6 in air yards per try (8.8).
He has been removed from excellent, main the NFL with 5 fumbles (two misplaced) and committing six whole turnovers, tied for third-most within the league. However his greatest contribution has been his poise throughout key fourth-quarter moments which have determined a trio of shut video games, a transparent signal of progress from a participant who had a popularity early in his profession for getting rattled.
For instance, in Week 2 in opposition to the San Francisco 49ers, Darnold pinpointed a 28-yard back-shoulder move to receiver Jalen Nailor to transform a 3rd down that finally led to a essential subject purpose. In Week 4 in opposition to the Inexperienced Bay Packers, he threw passes of 27 and 17 yards to receiver Justin Jefferson throughout one other drive that helped end off a 31-29 victory. And in opposition to the Jets, Darnold discovered Jefferson for 25 yards and tight finish Johnny Mundt for one more 20 on a drive that prolonged a slim lead.
“That is what Sam’s been,” coach Kevin O’Connell mentioned, “coping with adversity when his workforce wanted him and [making] some performs there that gave us a greater alternative to go win.”
Protection’s traditionally good begin
It was affordable to anticipate sturdy defensive play from the Vikings, who added 4 high-profile free agent starters — linebackers Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel and Blake Cashman, together with cornerback Stephon Gilmore — to a core that had already spent a season with defensive coordinator Brian Flores. However their defensive DVOA of 37.1% — a metric that compares success on every play to the league common primarily based on down and distance with changes for conditions and opponents — is greater than twice that of the next-best workforce, and it is sixth finest for any protection by way of 5 video games since 1979.
The place the #Vikings rank among the many high defenses measured by DVOA by way of 5 video games. #Skol pic.twitter.com/K9FQYE6cbg
— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@ASchatzNFL) October 7, 2024
The dominance has unfold throughout the board. The Vikings have compelled 13 turnovers, second finest within the NFL, together with two interceptions returned for touchdowns by Van Ginkel. They rank second in sacks (20) and yards allowed per rush (3.6), and fourth in factors allowed (15.2).
Van Ginkel and Gilmore had beforehand performed for Flores, and that helped the Vikings open the season with out many rising pains. A signature a part of Flores’ scheme is creating pre-snap confusion and, as ESPN’s Invoice Barnwell has famous, the Vikings have had no less than one defender again away from the road of scrimmage on the snap 48.5% of the time — by far the very best charge within the league. Via 5 weeks of the 2023 season, Flores’ first in Minnesota, that charge was 39.3%, in accordance with NFL Subsequent Gen Stats.
Flores’ scheme has so totally confused opponents that he is been capable of lead the NFL in blitz charge on first and second downs (46.7%) after which pull again on third down (28.1%, No. 19) with nice success. On these key third downs, Flores has usually used three or 4 edge rushers to comprise his line of defense. Backup linebacker Jihad Ward, as an illustration, has lined up as an inside lineman on 85 snaps this season.
And here is a warning to future opponents: Talking earlier this week, O’Connell hinted that Flores hasn’t but emptied his playbook.
“What I am most enthusiastic about is I believe that there is a lot extra there as we proceed to maneuver all through this season and face the kind of challenges you are going to face on our schedule,” O’Connell mentioned. “That is the place I am actually going to search for fixed enchancment, fixed consolation inside the scheme from our gamers, and Flo and his workers doing it at such a excessive stage has been an enormous factor for our group.”
Wildly productive free agent class
Groups that use free company to compensate for unproductive drafts are not often rewarded just like the 2024 Vikings. Normal supervisor Kwesi Adofo-Mensah signed 12 key unrestricted free brokers, not counting the incumbent gamers they re-signed, and nearly all of them have discovered methods to contribute to the 5-0 begin.
On the high of the listing are Darnold and operating again Aaron Jones, who ranks seventh within the NFL with 517 yards from scrimmage however would possibly miss a while after the bye due to a proper hip damage. Greenard has 4 sacks, Van Ginkel has three to associate with his interceptions, and Cashman leads the workforce with tackles (40). Gilmore’s interception of Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers sealed that victory, linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill recorded two interceptions whereas filling in for injured starter Ivan Tempo Jr., and Ward had a key fumble restoration in opposition to the 49ers.
Cornerback Shaquill Griffin’s interception in Week 4 in opposition to the Packers arrange a Vikings landing, and defensive lineman Jerry Tillery has knocked down two passes whereas beginning all 5 video games.
It is onerous to think about the place the Vikings can be with out such a strong class as a result of they’ve gotten begins from solely three gamers drafted throughout Adofo-Mensah’s three-year tenure: guard Ed Ingram, receiver Jordan Addison and receiver Jalen Nailor. Based on ESPN Analysis, that is the lowest whole within the NFL over that interval.
There have been loads of causes to stress concerning the tight finish’s ongoing restoration from a torn ACL and MCL in his proper knee that was sustained Dec. 24. He has been central to the Vikings’ offense since arriving halfway by way of the 2022 season, after which the Vikings recorded extra tight finish targets than each NFL workforce besides the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs, who’ve Travis Kelce.
With Hockenson set to spend the early a part of the 2024 season on the Bodily Unable to Carry out listing (PUP), O’Connell realigned his offense. Mundt and fellow backup tight finish Josh Oliver have every caught a landing move from Darnold, however total, the Vikings have the NFL’s third-fewest tight finish targets (18).
Amongst different issues, the Vikings have made up for these targets by calling 31% extra runs for operating backs (118) by way of 5 video games than they did final season over the identical time interval (82). So even with Hockenson sidelined, their offense ranks No. 8 within the NFL in scoring (25.0 PPG) and No. 10 in offensive effectivity (56.2). Every is the perfect mark by way of 5 video games throughout O’Connell’s tenure.
Hockenson is because of return no later than Week 9 in opposition to the Indianapolis Colts, and it is honest to anticipate one other realignment at that time.
“I have been very, very enthusiastic about the potential for getting T.J.’s talent set again in our offense,” O’Connell mentioned, “and will probably be one thing that I believe needs to be an actual optimistic for us.”
Will Reichard’s perfection
Reichard has proved to be an exception to the lengthy historical past of rookie NFL place-kickers. A sixth-round draft choose this spring, Reichard has transformed all 9 of his subject purpose makes an attempt, together with three from past 50 yards, and every of his 16 further factors.
Based on Professional Soccer Reference, that makes him certainly one of three rookie kickers in NFL historical past who’ve maintained an ideal conversion charge whereas showing in no less than 5 video games.
The Vikings have extra to be taught right here about their younger kicker, particularly in doubtlessly unhealthy climate video games throughout Week 12 at Chicago’s Soldier Area and Week 16 at Seattle’s Lumen Area. However so far, Reichard has far outperformed historic projections for gamers in his place.
