Now that you’ve learn the five hundredth ballot of the battleground states, the hundreds of simulations, the scientific and pseudo-scientific calculations, the hourly assertions of how shut this contest is, you may wish to take a breath and ponder the likelihood that the issue that can decide the end result could not have occurred but. Not less than, that’s what our current political historical past says.
Many times, shut presidential contests have been overtaken by last-minute occasions that rendered the months of research and hypothesis inoperative. Historians can debate the last word impression of those moments, however they’ve emerged typically sufficient that they need to present dose of humility to any evaluation of the end result.
Welcome to the “October shock,” which has come to imply any late-breaking occasion with the potential to alter the course of the race, however which first entered America’s political lexicon in 1980.
The thought was born out of worry in Ronald Reagan’s marketing campaign that President Jimmy Carter would handle to win the discharge of 52 hostages who had been held captive in Iran for almost a yr, offering the embattled president with a major diplomatic success. Reagan marketing campaign supervisor Invoice Casey publicly warned that Carter is perhaps planning such an “October shock,” and the marketing campaign urged its mates within the intelligence and navy communities to flag any actions that prompt a launch was within the works.
After all, not solely did that not occur, however the anniversary of the captivity occurred to be on election eve, additional reminding the nation of the hostages’ plight. The measure of Iran’s distaste for Carter could be measured by the truth that the hostages had been launched mere minutes after Reagan was inaugurated.
In reality, the actual October shock of that yr could have been alleged efforts by the Reagan marketing campaign to influence Iran to not launch the hostages till after the election and deprive Carter of the political windfall. The questions grew nice sufficient {that a} Home investigation of the matter was carried out. Lawmakers finally concluded in 1993 that there was “little or no credible proof of communication between the 1980 Reagan marketing campaign and the federal government of Iran.” However in his definitive biography of Reagan, writer Max Boot checked out new paperwork in regards to the actions of Invoice Casey and the following dealings between the Reagan administration and Iran to claim that the proof of this idea was “substantial and credible if nonetheless circumstantial.”
Different October surprises that did happen have been pricey.
In 1992, Iran once more was a late participant within the marketing campaign. On the Friday earlier than the election, former Reagan Protection Secretary Caspar Weinberger was indicted for making an attempt to cowl up the Iran-Contra affair. In that episode, which almost sank Reagan’s presidency, the U.S. shipped arms to Iran in an effort to realize the discharge of captive Individuals and despatched income from these gross sales to the insurgent Contras in Nicaragua, in violation of a congressional prohibition.
The indictment strongly prompt that President George H.W. Bush, who had been Reagan’s vice chairman, knew much more in regards to the affair than he had indicated. The story made headlines all through the weekend earlier than the election, doing additional injury to the already weakened incumbent. (In the end, Bush pardoned Weinberger within the closing days of his presidency.)
In 2000, within the final week of the competition between Vice President Al Gore and Gov. George W. Bush, a Maine reporter revealed that in 1976 — 24 years earlier — Bush had been pulled over for drunk driving. Bush acknowledged the incident, admitted to improper conduct as a younger man and defined he had by no means admitted it beforehand to spare his kids the embarrassment. Prime Bush strategist Karl Rove argued that the late disclosure value Bush the favored vote and as many as 5 states. Had Florida gone the opposite approach, the quarter-century outdated arrest would possible have been the Bush marketing campaign’s semi-official rationalization for his loss.
Typically the October shock hits in November: In 2004, 4 days earlier than the presidential election, a brand new video surfaced from Osama Bin Laden accepting duty for the Sept. 11 assaults and warning the U.S. to not strike Muslim nations. Democratic candidate John Kerry later pointed to the tape as a key purpose for his slim defeat by Bush, because it put terrorism within the highlight once more.
In 2008, the implosion of Lehman Brothers and the specter of the wholesale collapse of the monetary system buttressed the marketing campaign of Barack Obama, notably after John McCain appeared unwell relaxed in responding to the disaster.
Simply eight years in the past, FBI Director James Comey’s resolution to reopen the Hillary Clinton e mail investigation was precisely the story her marketing campaign didn’t want. She actually blames it no less than partly for her loss.
If this historical past will not be sufficient proof that “unknown unknowns” have the potential to upend this marketing campaign, take into account simply the occasions of this previous yr. Again in January, POLITICO Journal requested a couple of dozen of us to counsel occasions which may disrupt what appeared on the time to be an especially static race. The very fact is, lots of these “predictions” have already occurred: devastating hurricanes, rising world battle, a violent assault on a candidate.
My very own contribution was this: “Each time Joe Biden steps on a stage or off a aircraft, his supporters maintain their breath. With most voters (together with Democrats) pondering he’s too outdated to be president, a extremely public stumble (bodily or verbal) may flip that perception right into a critical demand for another person to take his place.”
So if you learn of the outstanding “stability” of the 2024 race, the comparatively minor motion within the polls, the cheap assertions that points like immigration, inflation or abortion will probably be decisive, simply understand that if previous is prologue, we should be in for a shock.