Russian supply Fighterbomber, run by Ilya Tumanov, asserts that Yerevan has transferred a considerable quantity of air protection gear to Kyiv, together with S-300, Buk, Tor, and Osa anti-aircraft missile techniques, together with related missile stockpiles.
Notably, these claims surfaced shortly after different Russian sources reported that Yerevan was supplying Ukraine with tank shells and anti-aircraft missiles valued at 210 million euros by means of the EU. Moreover, in November 2023, discussions emerged from the Russian Federation suggesting Yerevan was planning to switch launchers and missiles for the OTRK Tochka-U in addition to the Soviet-era air protection techniques, particularly Osa.
In response to unofficial data, the Armenian Armed Forces possess as much as three S-300PT-1 divisions, a number of Buk air protection techniques, and as much as 4 Tor air protection techniques. Additionally they have a big variety of Osa air protection techniques, roughly 70-90 items as of early 2020.
Nevertheless, the losses suffered by Armenia through the second Nagorno-Karabakh struggle should be factored in. Notably, among the many air protection techniques, Armenia misplaced over 20 Osa automobiles. Ukrainian sources additionally report losses of Armenian S-300 and different air protection techniques. It’s value noting that the S-300 made its first fight launch in 45 years throughout this battle, and the destruction of one in all these techniques was captured by Bayraktar TB2 drones.
Since 2021, Armenia has proven a eager curiosity in buying French-made weapons. This effort is a part of a broader technique to diversify its protection suppliers and scale back dependence on Russian arms.
This shift follows the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh struggle, the place Armenia’s Soviet and Russian-supplied navy techniques have been outperformed by Azerbaijan’s extra trendy, Western-supplied arsenal, which included drones from Turkey and Israel. As a key member of the Minsk Group and a vocal supporter of Armenia, France has naturally develop into a big companion in Yerevan’s protection procurement ambitions.
Among the many French weapons that Armenia is reportedly eyeing are superior air protection techniques, armored automobiles, and artillery. Particularly, the negotiations have centered on the Mistral man-portable air-defense system [MANPADS], Caesar self-propelled howitzers, and probably radar techniques such because the Thales Floor Grasp.
The Caesar artillery system is particularly prized for its mobility and precision, whereas the Mistral MANPADS might considerably improve Armenia’s short-range air protection—an important improve following their expertise with Azerbaijani drones. These superior techniques would significantly increase Armenia’s defensive capabilities.
Negotiations between Armenia and France have ramped up, with high-level discussions going down between officers from each international locations in 2022 and 2023. Throughout a go to to France in October 2023, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met with President Emmanuel Macron, with protection cooperation reportedly being a key agenda merchandise.
Though no last agreements have been confirmed, discussions seem like properly underway, pushed by strategic and political pursuits from either side. France, seeking to broaden its affect within the South Caucasus, appears keen to ascertain an arms partnership with Armenia.
Buying French weapons would assist Armenia regularly section out its getting older Soviet and Russian stockpiles, which embody older air protection techniques just like the S-300 and outdated Soviet-era artillery. Armenia has relied closely on Russian navy {hardware}, which has develop into a problem as Moscow shifts its focus to the struggle in Ukraine, limiting its potential to provide arms to conventional allies like Armenia.
In early 2024, French Protection Minister Sébastien Lecornu publicly expressed France’s readiness to promote Armenia a full vary of air protection techniques, together with medium and long-range choices, hinting on the SAMP/T. By June 2024, unofficial stories surfaced about Yerevan’s curiosity within the Israeli Barak-8 system.
On this context, one may cautiously take into account that Armenia is taking benefit and rearming by means of “round provides.” It’s important to notice that, as of now, there isn’t a substantial proof supporting this. Moreover, the concept of Armenia relinquishing almost all its air protection techniques appears inconceivable, as Yerevan is unlikely to be prepared to be left solely defenseless on this regard.
Regardless of guarantees, Russia has “deserted” Armenia in its battle with Azerbaijan and has not activated the CSTO protection union mechanisms, regardless of a number of appeals from Yerevan. In the meantime, Russia doesn’t acknowledge this and as a substitute actively accuses Armenia of betrayal.
Whereas official affirmation of S-300 provides stays absent, the opaque nature of arms transfers throughout instances of struggle leaves room for a lot of potentialities. Such offers are hardly ever made public, notably when involving international locations balancing intricate alliances. Armenia, which has trusted Russian navy gear for a few years, is likely to be signaling a big reassessment of its strategic alliances, possible influenced by Moscow’s waning assist following the Nagorno-Karabakh battle.
Apparently, the Armenian authorities has remained silent on the alleged S-300 switch, main some to dismiss the notion as mere hypothesis. Nevertheless, the truth that such a deal is even being mentioned raises vital questions on Armenia’s position as a Russian ally.
With Russia closely engaged in Ukraine and fewer able to influencing the South Caucasus, it’s believable that Armenia is seeking to steadiness its alliances, probably searching for favor with the West by supplying crucial air protection techniques to Ukraine. Whereas the reality behind these rumors might stay elusive, one factor is definite: Armenia’s strategic calculations are shifting, and the results might lengthen far past the area.
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