Armenia has initiated talks with the Indian firm Hindustan Aeronautics Restricted [HAL] to accumulate Su-30MKI fighter jets, in keeping with studies from Indian sources. This transfer is a part of Armenia’s broader technique to strengthen its air drive capabilities. The potential acquisition of those superior plane represents a second possibility for upgrading its navy property, with the primary being the modernization of its present fleet of Su-30SM fighters to the “Tremendous Flanker” variant via HAL.
The Armenian plans to reinforce its present fleet have been on the desk for a while. Earlier in 2023, BulgarianMilitary.com reported that the Armenian Air Power expressed curiosity in integrating Indian weapons methods, significantly BrahMos air-to-ground missiles, that are collectively developed by Russia and India, and Astra air-to-air missiles. Colonel Ovanes Vardanyan, head of Armenia’s Air Power, confirmed that discussions are ongoing with HAL concerning these upgrades.
Vardanyan highlighted HAL’s intensive expertise in modernizing such plane. He acknowledged, “We’re contemplating the potential of upgrading our Su-30s with HAL’s help, as they’ve a wealth of experience on this space.” He emphasised the potential for collaboration in avionics, digital warfare, and new armaments throughout navy workout routines in India.
An unnamed Indian official additionally confirmed Armenia’s curiosity within the undertaking however famous that negotiations are nonetheless of their early levels. He identified that Armenian Su-30SMs differ from the Indian Su-30MKI model, suggesting that this disparity could necessitate particular consideration and modifications in the course of the improve course of.
Alternatively, Armenia’s potential acquisition of eight to 12 Su-30MKIs might considerably alter the fragile steadiness of political relations between Armenia and Russia. The Su-30MKI, an Indian modification of the Russian Su-30SM mannequin, is developed and manufactured by HAL below a Russian license. Transitioning to this plane model might be interpreted as a shift away from Russian affect in protection know-how and strategic partnerships.
Russia has historically seen the South Caucasus as a area of strategic curiosity, offering Armenia with navy gear on preferential phrases. Ought to Armenia pivot in the direction of India for its navy procurements, Moscow would possibly understand this as an indication of Armenia’s intent to diversify its protection partnerships and scale back reliance on Russian know-how. Such a shift might result in elevated tensions and even much less favorable situations for future Russian arms deliveries.
Alexey Leonkov, deputy editor-in-chief of “Arsenal of the Fatherland,” expressed skepticism concerning the effectiveness of such modernization, asserting that Russian know-how for the Su-30SM retains superior efficiency, particularly in fight eventualities. He famous that whereas the choice to modernize in India would possibly stem from new partnerships and elevated military-technical cooperation between Yerevan and New Delhi, it might additionally weaken Armenia’s conventional navy ties with Moscow.
Army analysts like Alexander Gushchin added that if Armenia chooses to strengthen its ties with India over Russia, it might signify a “strategic sign” of change within the regional steadiness of energy. Gushchin recommended that Russia would possibly view this determination as a dangerous transfer, necessitating a reassessment of its commitments to Armenia as a accomplice within the Collective Safety Treaty Group [CSTO].
For Armenia, pursuing this feature might signify a strategic alternative to collaborate with India, which can be eager to determine secure regional connections to counterbalance the affect of Russia and China in Eurasia.
Buying between eight and twelve Su-30MKIs wouldn’t solely be a big achievement for India and its protection trade, however it might additionally solidify India’s place as a key worldwide producer and provider of navy gear. These jets, produced by HAL, would deliver financial advantages whereas reinforcing India’s standing within the international fight aviation market.
Past the financial benefits, such a sale would maintain strategic significance for India. By strengthening its navy presence in Armenia, India might lengthen its affect within the Caucasus area, which is essential to the geopolitical pursuits of each Russia and China. In recent times, India has actively enhanced its protection ties with Armenia, supplying artillery methods and missiles, and a deal for fighter jets would solidify this alliance. This could additionally set up India instead navy provider in areas historically dominated by Russian affect.
Nevertheless, Armenia’s endurance with Moscow seems to be waning. In 2019, Armenia ordered 4 Su-30SM jets from Russia, however the deliveries lacked important munitions, severely limiting their operational capabilities. To this point, Armenia has not obtained extra plane on account of delays from the Russian facet, which stay publicly unclear. Studies are suggesting that 5 extra jets are supposed to be delivered to Armenia, however indications level to them both being saved and undelivered or redirected to help Russian forces within the Ukraine battle.
Furthermore, Armenia had hoped for missile methods and extra logistical help, however these wants haven’t been met. Resulting from inadequate achievement by Russia and the urgent demand for safety, Yerevan has been compelled to discover various armament choices, together with the potential buy of fighters and munitions from India.
The rising pressure between Armenia and Russia largely stems from Armenia’s lack of sufficient protection sources in opposition to rising navy threats within the area. Regardless of Armenia’s acknowledged intention to bolster its air protection capabilities, its reliance on incomplete Russian provides and the need for various arms sources contribute to fraying bilateral relations.
India isn’t the one possibility for Armenia because it seeks to reduce its reliance on Russian weaponry. Over the previous 24 months, Armenia has made important strides towards diversifying its navy provide chain by turning to Western producers. In October 2023, Armenia signed a landmark arms settlement with France, marking its first enterprise into procuring Western navy gear.
Below this settlement, Armenia will obtain radar methods and roughly 50 VAB MK3 armored personnel carriers, together with Mistral short-range missile methods meant for self-defense. France may even present coaching for Armenian navy personnel on the brand new gear and help within the ongoing reforms inside Armenia’s armed forces. These initiatives are a part of a broader technique to scale back Armenia’s dependence on Russian navy help whereas enhancing its protection capabilities amid rising tensions with Azerbaijan.
Along with the French deal, Armenia plans to accumulate anti-drone methods from India, estimated to value round $41 million. There may be additionally potential for future agreements with the European Union to offer non-lethal navy help, additional indicating Armenia’s shift in navy relations with Western companions. This diversification of arms sources is essential as Armenia seeks to strengthen its safety amidst ongoing regional instability.
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