Bashar al-Assad’s overthrow has cleared the best way for US strikes towards the Islamic State group in areas beforehand shielded by Syrian and Russian air defenses — however the jihadists may additionally attempt to exploit the vacuum left by his fall.
The militant group,also known as ISIS or IS, rose out of the chaos of the Syrian civil conflict to grab swathes of territory there and in neighboring Iraq, prompting a US-led air marketing campaign beginning in 2014 in assist of native floor forces who finally defeated the jihadists.
Washington — which has troops in each Iraq and Syria — has for years carried out periodic strikes and raids to assist forestall a resurgence of the brutal militant group, however stepped up its army motion since Assad’s fall earlier this month, hitting dozens of targets.
“Beforehand, you had Syrian regime and Russian air defenses which might preclude, in lots of circumstances, our potential to — or desirability to enter these areas,” Pentagon spokesman Main Basic Pat Ryder instructed journalists this week.
Now, “it is a way more permissible setting in that regard,” Ryder stated.
On December 8 — the day Syrian rebels took the capital Damascus — Washington introduced strikes on greater than 75 IS targets that the US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated have been aimed toward making certain the group “doesn’t search to reap the benefits of the present scenario to reconstitute in central Syria.”
– ‘Energy vacuum’ –
And on Monday, CENTCOM stated US forces killed 12 IS militants with strikes it stated have been carried out “in former regime and Russian-controlled areas.”
Whereas Assad’s overthrow has eased entry for US strikes, the Syrian chief’s departure might additionally present a gap for IS militants.
“Terrorist teams like ISIS love an influence vacuum, and so there’s a threat that ISIS can exploit the chaos of a post-Assad Syria to resurface to a fair better extent,” stated Raphael Cohen, a senior political scientist on the RAND Company.
There may be additionally a hazard that Washington’s Kurdish allies — who’ve beforehand been focused by Turkey — could must shift their focus to countering their neighbor to the north.
“That is a very acute threat since they’re functionally guarding ISIS detainees, so if they’re launched, that might clearly have detrimental results on the counter-ISIS struggle,” Cohen stated.
The USA presently has some 900 troops in japanese Syria as a part of its efforts to counter IS, however that might probably change after President-elect Donald Trump takes workplace subsequent month.
“Trump — throughout his first administration — signaled that he needed to withdraw American forces from Syria. I can simply think about a second Trump administration making a renewed push to take action, particularly now that Assad is gone,” Cohen stated.
Trump might additionally scale back US army commitments within the Center East to let regional allies take care of challenges there, Cohen stated, noting that “if that might occur, US counterterrorism technique would look very totally different in consequence.”
