The Australian inflation knowledge got here in round expectations, and never sufficient to maneuver the needle on RBA charge hikes:
You will see in that knowledge publish that the month-to-month studying was a really good 2.1%, but it surely’s the quarterly, headline 2.8%, core 3.5%, that’s (are) the official quantity(s).
The headline was the bottom since early again in 2021. Nonetheless, core stayed elevated above the highest of the RBA’s goal band , that is 2 to three% (in a nutshell).
Headline inflation was pushed decrease by authorities cost-of-living subsidies and decrease petrol (gasoline for those who spell it like that) costs. Companies inflation stays sticky excessive.
As I mentioned earlier:
- The Reserve Financial institution of Australia meet once more on November 4 and 5. There can be no charge minimize at this assembly given these numbers.
- There’s a last assembly on December 9 -10 and I might recommend no minimize then both.
- February stays a best choice amongst analysts.
I am starting to fret about February! If the labour market stays sturdy (the most recent knowledge was sturdy once more) and underlying inflation stays excessive we is perhaps searching to April/Could for a minimize!
RBA dates forward for 2025:
AUD/USD is little modified round 0.6560.
