Can Dave Aranda get better from Baylor’s last-second collapse towards Colorado?

Practically three years in the past, with a convention title on the road, Baylor’s protection was a brick wall.

Within the last minute of the 2021 Large 12 Championship Sport, Oklahoma State had 4 tries to get 2 yards and a go-ahead landing. The Bears allowed simply 1 3/4, and Baylor received the Large 12 crown in coach Dave Aranda’s second season.

On Saturday night time at Colorado, Baylor wanted one other game-sealing cease within the last minute, with decrease stakes (the groups’ Large 12 opener) and rather more wiggle room: 45 yards to defend and solely two seconds for the Buffaloes to cowl them. However in a scene harking back to the one Kordell Stewart and Michael Westbrook produced 30 years in the past, Shedeur Sanders and LaJohntay Wester related on a miracle Hail Mary to ship the sport to extra time, the place the Buffaloes ultimately received 38-31.

These two endings, 33 months aside, encapsulate how far Baylor has fallen from its peak below Aranda, who’s now 25-27 with this system.

“The tip-of-regulation play is one thing I’ve by no means seen,” Aranda advised reporters.

Which may simply be in-the-moment postgame hyperbole, however the Bears executed their defensive plan so poorly that it was affordable to imagine Aranda had by no means seen a game-winning Hail Mary.

Quarterback Sawyer Robertson and the Baylor Bears are 2-2 after their loss Saturday at Colorado. (Christopher Hanewinckel / Imagn Photographs)

As soon as the highest-paid assistant in faculty soccer revered for his defensive genius, Aranda entered the season squarely on the recent seat in 12 months 5 of his first head teaching job, and the Bears’ crushing loss to Colorado seems like a possible turning level. Can he get better?

Because the 2021 season, when Baylor went 12-2 with that Large 12 title and a Sugar Bowl victory, this system is 11-18. The offensive and defensive staffs have turned over, which has been a theme of Aranda’s tenure.

After this system appeared to hit all-time low with a 3-9 end final yr, Aranda vowed to make extra modifications, going heavier into the switch portal, leaning tougher into identify, picture and likeness compensation and putting in himself because the defensive play caller for the primary time since serving as LSU’s defensive coordinator in 2019.

The primary three weeks of the season provided promise. The Bears appeared extra gifted and performed with an edge that appeared to be lacking final yr, and Aranda’s transition to turn out to be extra hands-on with the protection labored properly.

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Even towards Colorado, there have been encouraging indicators. There have been eight sacks of Sanders and lots of extra pressures, a number of of which got here from Texas Tech switch Steve Linton. There have been nice offensive performs from quarterback Sawyer Robertson and receivers Monaray Baldwin and Hal Presley. There was a basic look of competence all through the group that didn’t typically exist a yr in the past.

However how Baylor misplaced Saturday was embarrassing. The Bears gave up a 24-10 lead, and so they squandered a number of alternatives to place the sport away in regulation.

After back-to-back sacks of Sanders led to a punt on fourth-and-31, Baylor — main 31-24 with 3:58 left — took over on the Colorado 26 with an opportunity to take a two-score lead. The Bears ran the ball thrice and settled for a 46-yard Isaiah Hankins subject aim try that sailed huge proper with 2:16 left.

On Colorado’s last fourth-quarter drive, Baylor had the Buffaloes backed up, dealing with a second-and-24 at their very own 31 with 55 seconds left. But the Bears gave up all these yards on the subsequent three performs, maintaining the Buffs alive.

And earlier than Wester’s score-tying catch, Colorado flirted with a game-winner on the earlier play, as receiver Will Sheppard dropped a move from Sanders on the 2 after getting behind Baylor cornerback Caden Jenkins.

On Baylor’s last defensive play of regulation, which Aranda mentioned is known as “Victory Cigar,” the Bears pressured Sanders and flushed him from the pocket to his left earlier than he launched the bomb to Wester. Aranda detailed a missed task on the strain, which he mentioned was “inexcusable” contemplating Baylor known as timeout to arrange the protection earlier than the play.

“I take full accountability for that,” he mentioned. “I’ve to have the ability to coach that higher.”

Baylor followers in every single place nodded in settlement. It may be the Bears’ most painful loss since Sept. 11, 1999. That night time, Baylor led UNLV 24-21 and possessed the ball with 20 seconds left and the Rebels out of timeouts. As an alternative of taking a knee, the Bears ran the ball and fumbled; UNLV returned it for a 100-yard landing and a 27-24 win.

This Baylor group, as a substitute of returning dwelling 3-1 with constructive momentum, should now get better from the emotional intestine punch, with a smaller margin for error on this ultra-competitive convention.

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If Saturday’s loss spawns a shedding streak, it is going to be the third consecutive yr of frustration for the Baylor trustworthy. The upcoming schedule will not be forgiving. This weekend Baylor hosts No. 22 BYU, which simply dominated Kansas State. Then comes consecutive street video games at No. 18 Iowa State and Texas Tech earlier than returning dwelling for No. 20 Oklahoma State to shut out October.

If the Bears can’t rapidly choose themselves up, Aranda’s seat might be on fireplace heading into November. Though Baylor athletic director Mack Rhoades hasn’t publicly dictated a sure variety of wins for Aranda to outlive the season, making a bowl is a baseline expectation. That was made lots tougher by squandering Saturday’s recreation at Folsom Area.

The season will not be over, by any means. Baylor (2-2) is only a third of the way in which via the schedule, and if the Bears can rebound rapidly and snag a win over the Cougars, it could go a great distance towards shifting previous Saturday’s nightmare end. This yr’s Large 12 is bound to be unwieldy, with three of the highest 4 groups within the league’s preseason ballot having misplaced their convention openers.

However urgency in flipping the script is paramount. The Large 12 championship season in 2021 is the outlier of the Aranda period. Baylor had shedding information within the different three years and is now 13-25 total mixed in yearly besides 2021. The final time Baylor had consecutive successful seasons was the ultimate two years of the Matt Rhule period (2018 and 2019).

Baylor management desires Aranda to succeed. He’s properly preferred across the constructing as a result of he comes throughout as considerate and real. He’s not the fire-breathing caricature that’s typically the soccer coach stereotype. In faculty teaching, being a pleasant man should purchase you further time, and it definitely helped earn Aranda this yr, regardless of declining outcomes.

Whether or not he will get one other relies on how Baylor responds to its newest debacle. The choice received’t be made a technique or one other due to Saturday’s outcome. However the way in which the Bears misplaced will definitely stick out if there’s any ambiguity concerning the future when Rhoades weighs the choice at season’s finish.

After Saturday’s loss, Aranda mentioned the Bears would attempt to get their coronary heart again of their physique and known as the loss “an enormous wake-up name.”

“I do know we’ll reply,” he mentioned. “I do know this group. And I do know we’ll come out stronger due to this.”

In the event that they’re going to hoist one other trophy of any form below Aranda, they higher.

(Prime photograph: Andrew Wevers / Getty Photographs)