Are Liverpool favourites to win the title? Right here, Harry McMullen takes a take a look at the underlying numbers following a shiny begin to life underneath Arne Slot.
They are saying the desk doesn’t lie, and proper now it says Liverpool are the most effective crew within the league.
5 factors clear after 11 video games, Liverpool are on tempo for 96 factors, a complete that might certainly safe the title. However can they maintain this up for the entire season? Do they even must?
How good are we really?
Liverpool are overperforming their Anticipated Factors (xPoints) – the chance of a crew successful a match based mostly on the standard and amount of possibilities created – by about 3.95.
Nevertheless, they nonetheless high the xPoints desk, barely forward of, er, Fulham. This means Liverpool’s place is deserved, even when they weren’t working somewhat sizzling.
Prior to now six years, the crew on high after 11 video games has turn out to be champions thrice. Every of the opposite three leaders have been overachieving their true degree far more and unsurprisingly fell off:
Liverpool’s 21 objectives scored is on the decrease finish for a champion crew, as you’ll be able to see within the desk under:
Defensively, Arne Slot‘s Reds have been glorious. Solely two of the final six champions had the league’s greatest defence at this stage.
Nevertheless, three of the 4 groups that fell brief all had a worse xGA than Liverpool. This can be a title-winning defence:
Can Liverpool maintain this degree of overperformance? Possibly.
The title-winning Reds of 2019/20 have been an enormous eight factors above xP after 11 video games, they usually saved that tempo proper to the tip of the marketing campaign.
How significantly better do now we have to be than the challengers?
Cheerfully, if Liverpool cease overperforming and regress right down to their underlying numbers, they’ll nonetheless attain about 83 factors.
Normally, Arsenal and Man Metropolis might beat that tally. However each groups have didn’t exhibit the efficiency degree wanted to take action, given the bottom they now need to make up.
The nine-point hole means Arsenal are in all probability out of the race already, even when they recapture their greatest kind, whereas the five-point buffer for Man Metropolis make them second favourites.
Each groups have additionally suffered with accidents – about time! – whereas Liverpool have coped nicely with out the likes of Alisson, Harvey Elliott and Diogo Jota already up to now.
Although, in Premier League historical past, solely twice have a crew gained the title with fewer than 80 factors – in 1996/97 and 1998/99 – whereas the common factors gained by the champions is 87.8.
So, WILL we win the title?
Clearly, if Liverpool preserve their present degree of efficiency, they’ll be champions. In the event that they regress to their anticipated numbers, they’ve received an excellent probability.
The vital query is: will Liverpool drop under their anticipated degree?
Offensively, Mohamed Salah has began extremely as soon as once more, with 10 objectives and 10 assists already. Nevertheless, we’ve turn out to be accustomed to seeing him tail off within the again half of the season.
This contains final yr when the Reds completed second backside of the league for objectives vs. objectives conceded – they netted 80 occasions from an xG of 87.8.
Nevertheless, underneath Slot, Liverpool have begun creating and scoring at a extra managed fee – taking fewer pictures per recreation however with the next xG per shot.
Because of this, there’s a wholesome unfold of objectives throughout the squad under Salah, and the speed of scoring is kind of in step with xG up to now.
A much bigger concern is the shortage of objectives from set items, scoring simply two within the league up to now. The identical gamers have been glorious in that regard in years passed by, although – bettering on that entrance might present a powerful various path to aim.
Defensively, Liverpool are clearly overperforming, conceding six objectives from an xGA of 10.2. Slot’s extra affected person strategy in possession has improved the crew’s relaxation defence, decreasing the frequency of counterattacks.
Nevertheless, as we noticed within the recreation towards Chelsea, the urgent construction could be manipulated pretty simply. Liverpool’s final line of defence has masked this, however anticipating the press to be bailed out all season is unquestionably wishful considering.
Slot’s half-time adjustments often enhance the crew out of possession, however these steady sluggish begins will finally be punished.
What does this all imply?
Proper now, Liverpool are posting an xG aim distinction of about +0.98 per recreation. In different phrases, they’re anticipated to attain at the very least another aim than their opponent each recreation.
That’s already tight – Liverpool had a greater xG towards Nottingham Forest and nonetheless misplaced.
Any blip that turns into one thing far more sustained and the Reds’ slim benefit can shortly be eroded.
Nevertheless, it’s value noting that Man Metropolis gained the league in 2020/21 with an xG distinction of +1.0 per recreation. That season was additionally extra open, with decrease factors totals required for the title.
That signifies that so long as Liverpool don’t get any worse than their present efficiency degree, that ought to be adequate.
We must always benefit from the tag of title favourites. All metrics point out that Slot’s facet belong on the high, and that’s the place they’re.
A level of regression ought to be anticipated, although Slot might offset this by bettering attacking set-pieces and refining the press. So long as the Reds maintain at the very least degree with expectations, we will maintain dreaming of that long-awaited packed Anfield celebration.
