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WASHINGTON — Tens of millions of People are heading to the polls Tuesday as a chaotic presidential marketing campaign reaches its peak in a deeply divided United States, the place voters in solely a handful of battleground states will select the nation’s path ahead.
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Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump have introduced starkly totally different visions for America’s future, however polling reveals the 2 stay in a useless warmth.
“Any election within the U.S. is essential and impactful for us,” mentioned Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s ambassador to the US. “They’re central to our financial prosperity. They’re an important safety associate.”
Hillman has been travelling throughout America assembly with key members of the Republican and Democrat groups to arrange for any end result. On election evening, after her embassy duties are completed, she’ll be watching the outcomes together with her husband and mates — and mentioned she’s leaning towards ordering pizza.
Whereas the gathering with family members could deliver solace amid the anxious anticipation, Hillman is aware of greater than anybody the immense stakes at play for Canada.
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“Whoever is sitting within the Oval Workplace and populating Congress is making selections which will have an effect on Canada, both selections that present us with alternatives or selections that pose challenges for us,” Hillman mentioned. “The job is to be prepared for each.”
A shared historical past and eight,891-kilometre border is not going to defend Canada from the election’s end result. Each candidates have proposed protectionist insurance policies, however consultants warn if the Republican chief prevails the connection between the neighbours could possibly be way more tough.
“Trump and among the key folks round him, together with (former commerce consultant) Robert Lighthizer, actually wish to stick it to Canada,” mentioned Fen Hampson, a professor of worldwide affairs at Carleton College in Ottawa.
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Trump’s first administration demonstrated how weak Canada is to America’s whims when the previous president scrapped the North American Free Commerce Settlement.
Negotiating its successor, the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Settlement, was a key take a look at for Ottawa after Trump’s victory. Whoever takes over the White Home this time might be in cost in the course of the settlement’s evaluate in 2026.
A trigger for concern in Canada and all over the world is Trump’s proposed 10 per cent across-the-board tariff. A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report suggests these tariffs would shrink the Canadian economic system, leading to round $30 billion per 12 months in financial prices.
American economists warned Trump’s plan may trigger inflation, and probably a recession, which might virtually definitely have ripple results in Canada. Greater than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the united statesand commerce contains 60 per cent of Canada’s gross home product.
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“When the American economic system is rising, it’s usually good for us,” Hampson mentioned. “In the event that they take a deep dive underneath Trump … that can have a knock-on impact on us, on high of tariffs.”
The election end result may additionally redefine America’s position on the planet. Trump is crucial of giving assist to Ukraine in its battle in opposition to Russia, has attacked the United Nations and repeatedly claimed he wouldn’t defend NATO members that don’t meet defence spending targets — one thing Canada will not be doing, and gained’t for years.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promised to fulfill the goal of spending the equal of two per cent of GDP on defence by 2032.
Trump’s first tenure additionally noticed the Republican chief withdraw from the Paris Settlement, a world treaty to chop greenhouse gases.
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Hampson mentioned the Republicans’ push in opposition to worldwide establishments and treaties can have “a profound impression” on Canada, but additionally key allies and the world order itself.
If Harris wins, it’s extensively anticipated that there might be extra regular relations based mostly on established patterns and guidelines, however it doesn’t essentially imply clean crusing for Canada.
It’s anticipated the vice-president would observe the trail laid by President Joe Biden on international coverage and commerce with Canada.
Biden signed an govt order to revoke the allow for the Keystone XL pipeline, which might have transferred oil from Alberta to Nebraska. The administration’s Purchase America procurement guidelines additionally triggered concern in Canada.
Laura Dawson, an professional on Canada-U.S. relations and the chief director of the Future Borders Coalition, mentioned she expects a Harris administration would proceed nationalist and protectionist insurance policies.
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Harris has spoken on the marketing campaign path about the truth that she voted in opposition to the trilateral commerce settlement and mentioned she’s going to return manufacturing jobs to the U.S.
It’s an awesome slogan and bumper sticker, Dawson mentioned, “however it’s horrible in case you are Canada.”
Dawson warned Trudeau’s staff throughout a cupboard retreat in August that regardless of who’s the subsequent president, Canada should work tougher to keep up present advantages of built-in commerce and journey.
In the meantime, many People are caught between anxiousness and pleasure. Sixteen-year-old Gavin Kupcho attended his first Trump rally in Wisconsin final week.
“I’ve by no means felt extra enthused in my life,” he mentioned. “I want decrease gasoline costs since I simply obtained my licence.”
The state of affairs feels extra dire for Antonio White, who travelled from Miami to Milwaukee to knock on doorways for Harris within the essential battleground state. The 63-year-old mentioned America is at a crucial level “the place persons are now not recognizing fascism after they see it.”
“That is an election we should win for the sanctity of all people, for the nation itself,” he mentioned.
“Democracy is on the poll this time.”
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