It is a toss-up race for Georgia’s 16 electoral votes. 4 years after the state narrowly went blue for the primary time in many years, the presidential race there stays tight. Donald Trump is at the moment at 51% in preferences of doubtless voters, with Kamala Harris simply two factors behind him.
Monetary issues proceed to present Trump a bonus, however to not fairly the identical diploma it did when Joe Biden was his opponent. In the meantime, widespread concern about democracy retains Harris aggressive. Georgia’s voters are divided over latest actions by the State Election Board, and there are stark partisan divides in confidence within the election system, in addition to in what ought to occur after the votes are counted in November.
Financial system and funds
Many really feel worse off financially than they had been earlier than the COVID pandemic. About half of registered voters within the state say Trump’s second-term insurance policies would make them higher off financially — much like the quantity once we checked on this spring. Solely a 3rd say the identical of Harris. Whereas she trails Trump on this measure, it is noticeably higher than President Biden did within the state.
Rising prices are nonetheless a high concern throughout Georgia, with housing costs seen as notably burdensome. Eight in 10 voters say their earnings is not maintaining with inflation, and 7 in 10 say housing of their a part of Georgia is unaffordable. On the latter difficulty, Harris and Trump are seen by roughly equal numbers as doubtless to assist carry housing prices down.
Democracy and elections
As Georgia continues to take care of the aftermath of the 2020 election, most voters say the state of democracy is a significant factor of their vote this yr. Whereas financial points rank increased as an element, most voters really feel “very involved” about whether or not the U.S. may have a functioning democracy when they consider the following few years. And this group is leaning towards Harris.
So far as elections in Georgia itself, Democrats are way more assured than Republicans that their votes shall be counted accurately this yr. Most Republicans proceed to present credence to debunked claims of widespread fraud in 2020. 4 in 10 Trump voters would favor Georgia’s 2024 outcomes be challenged and investigated if Harris wins after the votes are counted. Practically all Republicans do not view Mr. Biden’s win in 2020 as professional.
Democrats are extra involved than Republicans that a few of Georgia’s election officers will refuse to certify the election outcomes for political causes.
The State Election Board lately voted to require election employees handy depend ballots on election night time this November, along with a machine depend. Most voters say this new rule will trigger delays to find out outcomes. They’re extra break up on whether or not it’s going to guarantee accuracy or cut back threat of fraud, with views closely divided by partisanship.
Majorities of Democrats really feel the board did this for political causes and to intentionally intrude with the election course of. Republicans by and huge really feel it was to make sure elections are safe.
Different points: weapons and abortion
Just some weeks after the deadliest faculty capturing in state historical past, most voters say they’re very involved about the potential of gun violence in faculties. That is very true of fogeys within the state, and majorities throughout get together traces are at the very least considerably involved.
Six in 10 say legal guidelines masking gun gross sales needs to be made extra strict in Georgia. Harris has a little bit of a bonus on the difficulty, however neither candidate will get many citizens who say their insurance policies would scale back gun violence within the state.
Most Georgia voters assist authorized abortion, however their views on the main points are extra difficult.
Six in 10 need abortion in Georgia to be authorized in most or all circumstances. That majority features a third of Republicans. Nevertheless, fewer name Georgia’s present regulation banning most abortions after round six weeks of being pregnant, “too strict.” Solely half of voters statewide say so, with 4 in 10 saying the regulation is about proper.
And just below half say being pregnant in Georgia is turning into extra harmful because the overturn of Roe v. Wade. They’re backing Harris over Trump by 4 to 1, whereas voters who do not feel this fashion about being pregnant are the mirror picture of their vote selection.
There’s settlement throughout get together traces that Harris would attempt to cross nationwide laws making abortion authorized, however voters divide on what Trump would do. Most Democrats say he would attempt to cross a nationwide ban, whereas most Republicans say he would depart it to the states to determine.
Abortion and gun coverage are extra salient on the left than the proper lately. In reality, they charge about as extremely because the economic system as main components within the vote selection of Harris supporters.
About half of registered voters say Harris is extra liberal than they want her to be, a notch increased than the 4 in 10 who say Trump is just too conservative. Nevertheless, this flips amongst self-described moderates, who usually tend to see Trump as too conservative than Harris as too liberal.
Key voter teams
The Atlanta metro space and its various suburbs had been key to Democrats’ statewide victories in 2020 and 2022. In the meanwhile, Harris is not matching Mr. Biden’s 2020 assist in these counties.
And whereas Black voters are backing her in massive numbers, they are not doing so at fairly the identical charges they voted for Mr. Biden 4 years again. Harris does barely higher amongst Black ladies than Black males, and even a small improve in Black assist for her would make the race useless even.
Practically 9 in 10 Black voters really feel Harris is attempting to earn the assist of Black voters. Solely about half say so of Trump — that quantity is down from this spring, when most felt he was.
Trump leads Georgia’s males by double digits, whereas Harris leads ladies extra narrowly — that’s producing a gender hole on par with what we noticed in 2020.
There’s some room for motion within the citizens, however not loads. About one in 10 doubtless voters within the state profile as persuadable, utilizing a reasonably broad definition of being uncertain of 1’s selection or prepared to contemplate the opposite candidate. Which means 9 in 10 are locked into their selection, and even most of the persuadable will stick to the best way they’re leaning now. That each one factors to the significance of turnout, together with new registrations.
With mail balloting underway in Georgia, Democrats are poised to financial institution a small lead within the coming weeks. Their voters make up a majority of those that plan to vote by mail. In-person early voting, which begins in mid-October, stays the most well-liked approach of casting a poll within the state. And those that plan to vote this fashion divide evenly between Trump and Harris. Extra voters are set to vote on Election Day this yr than did so in 2020, and as we noticed again then, this group favors Trump by a large margin.
Jennifer De Pinto and Fred Backus contributed to this report.
This CBS Information/YouGov survey was performed with a statewide consultant pattern of 1,441 registered voters in Georgia interviewed between September 20-24, 2024. The pattern was weighted in keeping with gender, age, race, schooling and geographic area, based mostly on U.S. Census information and voter recordsdata, in addition to to previous vote. The margin of error for registered voters is ±3.5 factors.