Donald Trump has a slight 3-point edge over Kamala Harris in Arizona, boosted by the problems of the economic system and the border. Harris has benefits with voters who prioritize abortion and the state of democracy, holding this race shut.
Voters suppose Trump’s insurance policies would put the pursuits of U.S. residents forward of latest immigrants, the place many really feel Harris’ insurance policies wouldn’t. And Trump’s concept of deporting all immigrants within the U.S. illegally is supported by greater than half of Arizona voters.
It is a considerably completely different image within the race for U.S. Senate: Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake by 9 factors. Gallego is helped by some Republicans and independents who’re splitting their ticket by voting for Trump for president and towards Lake for Senate, who most Arizona voters say is excessive.
The economic system and rising costs: Benefit Trump
Inflation continues to be on the minds of Arizona voters. Most say costs of the issues they purchase have been rising in latest months, and those that really feel this manner are backing Trump over Harris.
Extra voters suppose they may personally be financially higher off if Trump wins than if Harris does.
The border and immigration: Benefit Trump
Of all the problems measured within the ballot, Trump enjoys his widest lead over Harris among the many Arizona voters who name the border a significant component of their vote. All through this marketing campaign, it is a difficulty that has mattered extra to Republicans than Democrats.
Voters have contrasting views of how the candidate’s insurance policies would impression the variety of migrants making an attempt to cross the border. Most voters suppose border crossings will go down with Trump in workplace, whereas a slight majority thinks they suppose they may enhance resulting from Harris’ insurance policies.
Past the problem of the border, opinions of how latest immigration has affected life in Arizona shapes voters’ presidential preferences. Those that really feel latest immigrants from Mexico and Latin America have made life in Arizona worse are backing Trump, whereas those that really feel latest immigrants have improved life within the state or have not had a lot impression are backing Harris.
And most voters view Trump’s insurance policies as placing the pursuits of present U.S. residents forward of the pursuits of latest immigrants, whereas many view Harris’ insurance policies as placing the pursuits of latest immigrants forward of U.S. residents.
Trump’s concept of beginning a nationwide program to search out and deport all immigrants who’re within the U.S. illegally is overwhelmingly supported by his voters, and it additionally finds favor with greater than half of Arizona voters general. We see related help for this nationally.
Abortion: Benefit Harris
The difficulty of abortion helped preserve Democrats aggressive in 2022, and it is serving to Harris in 2024, however it is not sufficient proper now to push her forward of Trump. This is why.
Most voters help abortion being authorized in Arizona, and there may be slim majority help for Proposition 139, a poll measure that may set up a proper to abortion within the state’s structure, however this help for authorized abortion does not all translate into help for Harris. There’s a sizable proportion of voters — 1 in 5 — who say they may vote in favor of Proposition 139 however will forged their presidential vote for Trump.
And as we have seen in our nationwide polling, Arizona voters are extra apt to suppose Trump will depart the matter of abortion to the states, so the Harris marketing campaign’s argument that Trump will attempt to put a nationwide abortion ban in place has not resonated with most Arizona voters exterior the Democratic Social gathering.
Additionally, whereas Harris leads Trump by a large margin amongst voters who say abortion is a significant component of their vote, much more voters place a precedence on the economic system and inflation, and Trump leads Harris on these points.
Democracy: Benefit Harris
The state of democracy is a prime situation for voters — solely the economic system and inflation are cited by extra voters as a significant component of their vote. And as we have seen nationally, Harris leads Trump amongst those that say democracy is a significant component of their vote. It isn’t by as vast a margin as her lead on abortion, however it’s an element that’s holding this contest shut.
Latino voters
Arizona’s Latino voters are backing Harris over Trump, however not by fairly as vast a margin as they backed Joe Biden over Trump in 2020. Harris has not satisfied most Latino voters that her insurance policies will assist their very own private monetary state of affairs (Trump hasn’t both), however private funds are associated to presidential vote alternative. Latino voters who be ok with their very own funds are backing Harris, however those that say their private monetary state of affairs is in dangerous form are extra divided of their vote.
And Trump’s concept of a program that may deport all immigrants within the U.S. illegally finds help with some Latino voters, though most oppose the thought.
Arizona’s election system
Skepticism concerning the final result of the 2020 election stays widespread amongst Arizona Republicans and people backing Trump. They overwhelmingly don’t think about Joe Biden the professional winner of Arizona in 2020, and right now, a mere 9% of Trump voters are very assured that the elections of their state might be dealt with in a good and correct method. This stands in stark distinction to Harris voters.
As we stay up for November, almost half of Trump’s backers wish to see the election in Arizona challenged and investigated if Harris wins, whereas most Harris voters say the outcomes of the election must be accepted irrespective of who wins.
The Senate race
In Arizona’s Senate race, Lake trails Gallego by 9 factors, largely resulting from quite a lot of Republicans and independents who’re splitting their ticket by voting for Trump within the presidential race and Gallego for Senate.
Lake is seen as excessive by most Arizona voters — together with by Trump supporters who plan to vote Gallego within the Senate race — whereas Gallego is seen by most Arizona voters as affordable.
Lake holds a commanding lead amongst those that suppose latest immigrants from Mexico and Latin America have made life in Arizona worse, a view held by almost half of Arizona voters.
However even amongst these voting for her, she seems to garner much less private enchantment than Trump does on the prime of the ticket. Whereas most of Trump’s voters help him as a result of they like him, most of Lake’s voters are supporting her both as a result of she’s the Republican nominee or to oppose her Democratic opponent.
Gallego, alternatively, has a transparent lead amongst moderates and independents (independents are extra divided between Harris and Trump), and he will get the help of greater than 1 / 4 of Republicans who do not establish with the MAGA motion.
This CBS Information/YouGov survey was performed with a statewide consultant pattern of 1,439 registered voters in Arizona interviewed between October 11-16, 2024. The pattern was weighted based on gender, age, race, training and geographic area, primarily based on U.S. Census information and voter recordsdata, in addition to to previous vote. The margin of error for registered voters is ±3.3 factors.
