The 2024 presidential contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is extra than simply two ideologies competing over what ought to occur. It is two teams of voters that look out on the nation and do not even agree on what’s taking place proper now.
Views about hurricane aid are only one instance of many. To most of former President Donald Trump’s voters, that aid is not going to the individuals impacted. To Vice President Kamala Harris’ voters, it’s.
Trump’s voters view the U.S. economic system as dangerous, whereas most Harris voters view the economic system pretty much as good. Trump’s voters say U.S.-Mexico border crossings are rising now. Harris’ voters are extra apt to say crossings are down than up. As voting will get underway, much more Trump voters anticipate widespread fraud. Harris’ voters don’t.
And Trump’s voters — particularly the lads amongst them — see themselves in a nation the place gender equality efforts have gone too far. For many Harris voters gender equality efforts within the U.S. have not gone far sufficient.
There may be not less than one factor in frequent although: both sides says they use however do not belief social media. They are saying that it makes it simpler for them to seek out individuals they agree with (maybe reinforcing already-held beliefs) but additionally tougher to inform what’s true.
Towards that backdrop, an already shut, successfully even contest attracts even tighter. Trump is one level nearer to Harris nationally than final month, the decisive battleground states additionally stay successfully even, a mere one level aside now.
What’s taking place with hurricane aid?
Within the view of most Trump voters, hurricane aid is especially going to individuals not impacted by hurricanes, and amongst them, there’s extensive perception within the declare that FEMA funds are going to individuals within the U.S. illegally.
Most Harris voters assume these claims are false, that funds are going to individuals impacted and aid efforts are transferring about the correct velocity.
What’s taking place within the economic system now?
On the economic system, which frequently reveals partisan-driven variations, Trump voters overwhelmingly name it dangerous on the identical time most Harris voters name it good.
Even when that is considerably subjective, there are variations between the camps in what they see on different associated measures. Trump voters are much less apt than Harris voters to say the inventory market is up for the 12 months and fewer more likely to say the U.S. has added jobs of late, although for voters who specific a course, the online steadiness in each camps is a better market and extra jobs. The perceived implications of which can be apparently completely different, nonetheless.
Harris voters are additionally much less more likely to assume costs are rising.
What’s taking place on the border now?
On the U.S.-Mexico border, Harris’ voters are extra inclined to assume the variety of migrant crossings is reducing. However Trump’s voters are comparatively extra apt to say crossings are rising at the moment and that the Biden administration has actually tried to extend, not scale back, them.
Unlawful crossings on the southern border in September reached their lowest ranges for the reason that starting of the Biden administration.
Once we observe up with voters who assume President Biden tried to extend crossings, and ask why, the highest reply picked by Trump voters is that they think there are efforts to get migrants to vote illegally in U.S. elections.
Gender variations and equality efforts
There are large variations evaluating some cultural or social shifts, which can assist partly clarify the gender hole, nonetheless massive it finally ends up being:
Most Trump voters see efforts to advertise gender equality within the U.S. going too far (males backing Trump particularly assume so) whereas Harris voters assume these efforts aren’t going far sufficient, particularly the ladies backing her.
For 1 / 4 of girls backing Harris, the truth that she is a lady is part of their decision-making.
For 10% of males backing Trump, the truth that Harris is a lady is a think about theirs.
What could occur with the election system?
As voting begins in lots of states, voters usually belief their states’ election system, however Trump’s voters are rather more skeptical.
Solely 1 / 4 of voters assume there can be widespread fraud. Harris voters do not assume so, however practically half of Trump voters do.
Amid all of this, half of Trump voters need him to problem the election outcomes if Harris wins. Most of Harris’ backers need her to just accept the outcomes, regardless of who wins.
Who do you belief for info?
Larger image, on who voters belief for truthful info: For Donald Trump’s voters, Trump himself is a high supply as a lot as their very own household and buddies, although they do not present overwhelming belief in quite a lot of sources introduced. Trump does rank extra extremely than different conservative media figures usually; medical scientists generally; and excess of authorities financial experiences.
Harris’ voters, in flip, belief Harris much more than Trump voters belief Trump, however Harris backers are additionally comparatively rather more trusting usually of sources, together with medical scientists and authorities experiences.
Either side share a distrust of company leaders and social media influencers, and both sides says they use social media to observe the marketing campaign at about the identical charge.
And one thing else supporters of the candidates share: the overwhelming suspicion that overseas governments are attempting to affect the election. Most additionally imagine that overseas governments are supporting threats or makes an attempt to hurt U.S. presidential candidates.
Voters general are inclined to suspect that China and Iran need Harris to win and that Russia desires Trump to win – however inside these numbers, both sides thinks these overseas nations need the opposite candidate to win. Trump voters assume Russia desires Harris; Harris voters assume Russia desires Trump.
What’s taking place with voter teams?
Amid all this, it’s maybe little shock that neither candidate can impact massive swings. The nationwide desire between the 2 continues to be basically even, because it has been since August, with a one-point transfer again towards Trump each nationally and within the battlegrounds composite. Behind that, independents have shifted just a little now towards Trump.
Black voters are nonetheless voting closely Democratic, as in previous years, proper now supporting Harris on the identical charge as they did Mr. Biden in 2020. Nevertheless, the chance of turnout for Black voters lags that of White voters, suggesting maybe there’s extra for Harris’ marketing campaign to do in activating these voters.
Neither candidate has the sting on the flexibility to deal with a federal response to pure disasters. Nearly a 3rd of voters have quite a lot of confidence in both Harris or Trump on this.
Voters assume Harris is extra more likely to make entry to reasonably priced well being care higher relatively than worse, whereas extra assume Trump would make entry worse.
On abortion: when voters say this is a significant factor, Harris enjoys a few of her widest margins over Trump. Nevertheless, over the course of the marketing campaign, the quantity who rank it as a significant component has not grown.
Additionally, her marketing campaign’s argument that Trump will attempt to ban abortion nationally has not resonated with most voters exterior of her personal occasion. Most independents, together with Republicans, assume Trump will go away the matter of abortion to the states.
On taxes, Trump has the benefit. Voters are twice as more likely to say Harris will make their taxes go up relatively than down — and that is true amongst all earnings teams. Voters are extra divided on what is going to occur with their taxes beneath Trump.
This CBS Information/YouGov survey was performed with a consultant pattern of two,719 registered voters nationwide interviewed between October 8-11, 2024. The pattern was weighted in accordance with gender, age, race, and training based mostly on the U.S. Census American Group Survey and the U.S. Census Present Inhabitants Survey, in addition to previous vote. Respondents have been chosen to be consultant of registered voters nationwide. The margin of error for registered voters is ±2.3 factors. Battlegrounds are AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, and WI.